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Trump's Iran ceasefire extends to stocks, but the dollar is still in a shaky state
The dollar weakened on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced that he would "indefinitely" extend the Iran ceasefire. This kept the mood upbeat, even though the Strait of Hormuz was still closed. Oil held onto its recent gains. Trump's unilateral announcement was confusing, as it wasn't immediately clear if Iran or the U.S. ally Israel would agree to extend a ceasefire that began two weeks earlier. The markets, however, remained steadfast in their risk-adjusted momentum. S&P Futures rose by 0.5%, while Nasdaq Futures gained 0.6% in early Asian hours. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan slipped 0.14%, after hitting a seven-week-high in the previous session. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.2%, as traders tried to consolidate their recent gains. The markets have quickly recovered this month after a steep selloff due to the?war? in the Middle East. They are now back at their pre-war levels, as the prospect for a ceasefire and a peace agreement has helped boost risk sentiment. Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, said: "It seems markets were right in assuming that peak war uncertainty was behind us." The risk seems to be buoyant, and equity bulls are favourable towards dips. "The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already been priced in." Trump stated that he would continue to blockade Iran's ports, shore and coast with the U.S. Navy. Tehran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's energy supply normally flows. This has caused a global shock. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 0.44% to $90.12 per barrel. The benchmark contract rose 2.8% Tuesday. The euro was last trading at $1.1748 during early trading. The dollar was slightly stronger at 159.26 yen, while sterling rose to $1.35195. (Reporting from Ankur Banerjee, Singapore; Editing and proofreading by Christopher Cushing).
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BHP says iron ore production in the third quarter rose, but maintains full-year forecast
BHP Group said on Wednesday that its iron ore production in the third quarter rose by 3%. The miner's outlook for the year was unchanged. In February and March, two tropical cyclones disrupted Port Hedland's operations, which is the largest iron ore hub in the world. This affected shipments of this key steel-making material. The largest listed mining company in the world said that iron ore production from its Western Australia mine operations was 69.8 metric tons on a 100 percent basis for the?quarter ending March 31. This is higher than Visible Alpha's estimate of 68.9 metric tons. Last year, 67.8 millions tons of?tonnes were produced. The price of the wet metric tonnage steelmaking ingredient has fallen by 2%, from $85.35 per metric ton for the last three months. The company stated that the 100% iron ore production guidance for fiscal 2026 from Western Australia operations remains at 284 to 296 millions tons. The quarterly copper production fell 7%, to 476.800 tons. This was due to a weaker performance by the Escondida? and Pampa Norte?operations. BHP has announced that it has completed iron ore contract negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group. Earlier this month, it was reported that CMRG (the state iron ore purchaser) had lifted the bans on the procurement of the?key ingredient for steelmaking from BHP. This ended a long-running dispute following a visit by BHP's top executives. Mike Henry, the outgoing Chief Executive Officer of GE Energy, said: "Our centralised purchasing capability and our low-cost operation have placed us in an advantageous position in the face of industry-wide pressures on the cost energy and consumables due to the conflict in the Middle East." BHP appointed senior executive Brandon Craig as its new CEO in March, ending Henry’s six-year tenure. Craig will take over the role on July 1. (Reporting by Sneha Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)
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South32 reduces Australia's manganese forecast after wet season and cyclone impacts
South32 cut its full-year predictions for Australia's manganese after heavy rains during the wet season and Tropical Cyclone Narelle disrupted operations. Narelle forced the company in March to temporarily stop operations at its Gemco'manganese mining site in the Northern Territory, and evacuate all non-essential personnel from the mine. The diversified mining company now expects the fiscal '2026 production guidance to be 3 million metric tons of 'wet weight (wmt), a drop of over 6% from its previously announced guidance. Australia Manganese produced 589,00 wmt in the March quarter. This compares to no production a year ago, when the primary concentrater was paused because of?stockpiles built before the wet seasons. South Africa's production of manganese was 500,000 wmt in the third quarter, up from the 476,000 wmt that had been recorded the previous year, despite the fact that the operation underwent scheduled maintenance during the period. The combined'manganese production from its Australian and South African operations in the March quarter was 1.09 million Wmt, up from 476,000 Wmt?a year ago?but still missing Visible Alpha's consensus estimate of 1.25 Million wmt. (Reporting by Kumar Tanishk in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)
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London military planners discuss the reopening of Hormuz
The British government announced that military planners from over 30 countries will meet in London for two days starting on Wednesday. They will discuss a mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and develop detailed plans. Last week, more than a dozen nations said they would join an international mission led by Britain and France to protect shipping along the Strait of Hormuz, if conditions permitted. This commitment was made after 50 countries from Europe and Asia, as well as the Middle East, joined a videoconference to send a message to Washington following Donald Trump's statement that he didn't need any help. The British Ministry of Defence stated in a press release that the meeting scheduled for Wednesday would build upon progress made during last week's discussions. John Healey, UK's?defence Minister, said: "Today and tomorrow we must?translate diplomatic consensus into a plan that will safeguard freedom of movement in the?Strait, and promote a ceasefire lasting." I am confident that real progress will be made in the next two working days." The British government said that the talks would advance military plans for reopening the Strait of Hormuz when conditions allow, after a sustained ceasefire. Participants are expected to discuss military capabilities, control and command arrangements, and the deployment of forces in the region. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Cawthorne; Catarina demony)
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Iran war poses tough choices for tiny Pacific nations on fuel and food
Pacific nations far from home are feeling the effects of a global fuel shortage. Authorities scramble to manage their energy supply, while families struggle with fuel restrictions and higher food prices. The U.S. and Israel war against Iran is disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz which carries around 20% of the world's oil flows. Aid agencies 'warned' that the crisis had caused diesel, petrol, and kerosene prices to rise by up to 70% in Papua New Guinea following the Iran war. Godfrey Bongomin is the director of programme operations for World Vision Papua New Guinea. He said that many communities relying on boats for transportation are having difficulty delivering food to remote areas. Bongomin said that because some people could no longer afford to travel to clinics, they were missing medical appointments, and unable access life-saving HIV/TB medicines. It is affecting the livelihoods of people." The International Finance Corp stated in 2024 that Pacific Island nations were the most dependent on diesel to generate electricity. Zero Carbon Analytics data showed that diesel fueled more than half the electricity production in 2022 except for Fiji. Kpler data revealed that in 2025 Pacific countries imported 2.2 million?metric tonnes of gasoline, diesel fuel, gasoil, and jet fuel, mostly from Singapore and South Korea. Imports in the first half were only a quarter the amount of all March. BROADER THREAT LARKS The pressure in Papua New Guinea where almost 40% of the population lives below poverty level, is indicative of a wider threat to Pacific nations who rely heavily upon imported fuel, maritime and air connections, and on imports. Abdul Abiad is the deputy chief economist at the Asian Development Bank. He said that even if the ceasefire lasts, it will be a long time before prices return to their previous levels. "There will be a lot pain." He said that the region was particularly vulnerable because fuel imports account for between 8% to 11% of GDP, in many countries. In Tuvalu they are 27%. Abiad stated that if the conflict is resolved quickly, the regional growth will be moderated by nearly a whole percentage point to 3.4% in 2026. However, if the war continues, the growth would be further slowed. Guo Jiakun said, "China is willing and able to work with all parties to safeguard global energy safety," Guo Jiakun was a spokesperson for the foreign ministry. He responded to a question last week about the plight in Pacific states where China has an increasing influence. Staff of Catholic aid organisation Caritas Internationalis say that the crisis is squeezing budgets across the Pacific by increasing travel costs, food prices, and other essentials. Low-income families are the hardest hit. When families are stretched financially, many ask themselves: Can I afford this or should I spend more on food? Kim Koch, Save the Children's regional director in Fiji, said: "When families are stretched financially, they ask themselves, can I afford to do this anymore or should I just spend more money on?food?" MEASURES TO CUBRICATE THE IMPACT The Pacific Islands Forum troika - a group of former, current, and incoming chairpersons - agreed last week to use the emergency response system for the region to deal with the crisis unfolding, the first time since COVID-19. Caritas says that in Kiribati people struggle to access work, education and healthcare. Tuvalu and Marshall Islands both declared states of emergencies. Cook Islands, Nauru, and Papua New Guinea all have taken steps to reduce or limit the cost of fuel. Governments in these countries also urged their citizens not to panic buy or stockpile items. Some places even limited purchases. Ministers in Fiji agreed to take a 20% pay cut to offset some fuel costs. However, the change must be approved by parliament. New Zealand Foreign minister Winston Peters visited Washington in this month and urged Secretary of state Marco Rubio to examine fuel deliveries to the?Pacific. New Zealand and Australian diplomatic representatives have also discussed concerns with certain nations. Penny Wong, Australia's Foreign Minister, told the media that Australia is looking for ways to help, but its top priority is domestic supplies. The problem is getting worse. Lillian Bing (secretary general of the Episcopal Conference of the Pacific) said that the burden of poverty is borne primarily by ordinary wage earners, and those in vulnerable communities.
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US oil prices are rising as US-Iran talks on peace remain in doubt
U.S. crude prices rose early on Wednesday despite Washington's announcement that it would extend the ceasefire indefinitely with?Iran. This was due to uncertainty surrounding?peace negotiations?and the?Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose as high as $90.70 a barrel, and were trading up 59 cents or 0.7% at $90.26 at 2215 GMT. The benchmark contract rose 2.8% Tuesday. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he would "indefinitely" extend the ceasefire agreement with Iran hours before its expiration date, in order to allow both countries to continue their peace talks and end the war which has 'killed thousands of people,' and shook the global economy. Trump's unilateral announcement was not immediately apparent. It was also unclear whether Iran or the U.S. ally Israel would agree to extending the ceasefire that began two weeks earlier. Trump said that he would also continue the U.S. Navy’s blockade against?Iran’s ports and shoreline, which Iran’s leaders have described as an act of warfare. Iran's senior leaders have not yet responded to the?question. However, Tasnim, a news agency affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guards said that Iran has repeatedly?threatened to break the U.S. Blockade by force. Shipping data shows that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz - which handles around 20% of the?global oil & liquefied gas?supplies - was largely halted on Tuesday, with only three vessels passing through in the last 24 hours. (Reporting and editing by Nia William; Yuka Obayashi)
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US stock prices end lower and oil gains as Iran rejects Peace Talks
Wall Street stocks closed lower on Tuesday, following their global counterparts. Crude prices also rose amid concern over the latest developments in the Iran War. The?three major U.S. indexes all extended their losses towards the end of the session, after Iran refused to participate in a?second round?of negotiations. It said it would only do so if the United States abandoned its policy of threats and pressure. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced that he would extend the ceasefire until a proposal from Iran is received. Iran's action follows the U.S. force's seizure by the Iranian flagged container ship Touska to enforce Trump's ban. Chuck Carlson is the chief executive officer of Horizon Investment Services, based in Hammond, Indiana. "I am not surprised at the way that the market has been behaving, with the deadline approaching." WARSH FACES THE SENATE Kevin Warsh, Trump’s choice to succeed Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve, demanded a "regime-change" in remarks before the Senate Banking Committee. Warsh called on a new approach for controlling inflation, and a communication overhaul to discourage his colleagues from saying a lot about the direction of monetary policies. The Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales in March were stronger than expected, but the majority of this surprise came from a 15.5% increase in gasoline station receipts as a result of price spikes associated with the Iran War. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 292.96 points or 0.59% to 49,149.60. The S&P 500 declined 45.12 points or 0.63% to 7,064.02 while the Nasdaq Composite lost 144.43 or 0.59% to 24,259.96. EUROPEAN, GLOBAL STOCKS DIP The European stock market ended the day lower, as investors' risk appetite waned due to concerns about Iran. The MSCI index of global stocks fell 6.51 points or 0.61% to 1,065.48. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.87% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 fell by 22.64 points or 0.91%. Emerging market stocks gained 10.37 points or 0.65% to 1,610.75. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan closed up by 0.77% to 824.64 while Japan's Nikkei gained 524.28 or 0.89% to 59349.17. Retail sales data showed economic strength, while the U.S. Dollar advanced. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket of currencies, including the yen, and the euro) rose by 0.48%, to 98.54. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.54%, to $1.1723. The dollar gained 0.51% against the Japanese yen to?159.6. Bitcoin fell by 1.55%, to $75,130.32. Ethereum fell 1.65% to $2.299.82. After Trump said earlier that he didn't want to extend ceasefire, oil prices recovered from their earlier decline. Brent crude settled at $98,48 per barrel up 3.14% for the day. U.S. crude was up 2.81%. U.S. Treasury Yields rose as retail sales data reinforced expectations that rates will remain unchanged this year. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 6.3 basis points from 4.25% on Monday to 4.313%. The 30-year bond rate?rose by 3.4 basis points from 4.881% to 4.9152% late on Monday. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with what people expect from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, increased by 8.6 basis points, to 3.802%. This was up from 3.716% at late Monday. The dollar strengthened, and gold prices fell. Spot gold dropped 2.95%, to $4677.54 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 2.71% to an ounce of $4,676.40.
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Mercuria warns that aluminium faces a 'black-swan' supply shock
According to Mercuria's top metals analyst, the global aluminium market will experience a "black-swan" event this year as disruptions caused by a Middle East conflict trigger a supply shock. This will cause major shortages. Around 7 million metric tonnes of aluminium is smelted in the region each year, which represents about 9% of global production this year. Aluminium is used in the construction, transport and packaging industries. Nick Snowdon of Mercuria's metals and mining division said that the scale of supply shock in the aluminium industry is the biggest?single?supply shock a base-metals market has experienced since the year 2000. He was speaking at the Financial Times Global Commodities Summit in Lausanne. "We're already experiencing a black swan event." He said that no one could have predicted something of this magnitude. The London Metal Exchange rallied on April 16 due to concerns about supply disruptions resulting from the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. Aluminium prices reached a record high of $3,672 per ton, a four-year-high. Mercuria believes that the market will be facing a deficit between now and the year's end of approximately 2 million tonnes. Snowdon stated that this estimate could be conservative as it assumes an improvement in the near-term alumina flow via the Strait of Hormuz, which will allow some smelters restart production during this quarter. Snowdon stated that the market has limited buffers. "This shortfall compares to about 1.5 million tonnes of visible inventory, and just over three million tons total global stock including non-visible items." He said that if the conflict continues and alumina, which is a key feedstock in the production of aluminium, is not flowing to the Gulf, then a larger deficit could be possible. Middle East aluminum cannot be easily replaced. China, which is the top producer in the world, has a 45-million-ton annual production limit, while the U.S., Europe, and other countries have limited idle capacity. Snowdon stated that the U.S., and Europe are particularly vulnerable to the supply shock due to?low stock. According to Trade Data Monitor (an information provider), the Middle East contributed nearly 22 percent of the 3.4 millions tons of primary and alloyed aluminium the U.S. imported last year. TDM reports that Europe imported 1.2 million tonnes, or 18.5% of its primary and alloyed aluminum, from the Middle East in 2017. The premiums paid over the LME price of physical metal have also risen. In the U.S., they reached a record of $1.14/lb, or $2,521.50/ton, and in Europe, they hit a four-year high at $599/ton, early in April. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao; Additional reporting by Tom Daly, Polina Devitt, and Pratima Dasai)
Exports from Japan grew 11.7% in March, thanks to a brisk market and higher prices
Data showed that Japan's exports increased for the seventh consecutive?month. This was boosted by a solid global demand, rising prices, and the fact that the Middle East conflict had no major impact on the country.
Data showed that total exports by value increased 11.7% on an annual basis in March. This was higher than the median market expectation of 11%.
The data revealed that exports to the United States increased by 3.4% from the previous year, and those to China rose 17.7%.
Imports increased 10.9% from a year earlier in March, while the market expected a 7.1% rise.
In March, Japan had a trade surplus of 667 bn yen, which is $4.18 billion, as opposed to the expected surplus of 1.1 trillion?yen.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz slowed down Gulf energy shipments and disrupted global supply chains. However, the higher export prices in Japan have helped the country's trade.
Manufacturers are increasingly concerned about the rising energy prices, disruptions in oil supplies and other materials that could eventually drag down Japanese exports.
In recent weeks, shortages of naphtha - a vital feedstock for petrochemicals - and other materials forced dozens companies to halt orders, despite assurances from the government that there were sufficient stocks.
The Japanese economy continues to show signs that it is undergoing a modest recovery. This is supported by a firm business investment climate and robust exports. However, the growth momentum remains uneven due to external headwinds.
Analysts warn of the impact that Middle East tensions and rising oil prices could have on the economy. They say they will increase import costs, and reduce household purchasing power.
Bank of Japan will likely maintain its current interest rate stance at the next policy meeting, scheduled for next week, as a weaker yen, higher energy prices and a weaker yen adds to inflationary pressures, making it difficult for the central bank to strike a balance between price stability and economic growth. ($1 = 159.54110 yen)
(source: Reuters)