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Stocks rise on hopes of trade; Argentina is in focus following Milei's win
Investors also looked at Argentina, where President Javier Milei’s party won the midterm elections with a decisive win. These moves will help emerging markets start the week strong, in anticipation of a possible trade agreement between two of the largest economies on the planet that could remove a major cloud on global growth prospects. The MSCI index that tracks emerging market stocks rose by 1.3%. The currencies index, on the other hand, remained flat and rangebound. Later on, the focus will shift to Latin America where the party of Argentina's President Milei won the midterm legislative elections that were held over the weekend. This victory will give Milei political capital that will allow him to push ahead with reforms which have reduced triple-digit inflation and may also attract foreign capital. "Foreign investments are very low in Argentina. The current administration wants to continue reform. The opportunity in Argentina has never been better," Thea Jamison said, founder of investment firm CHANGE Global. TURKEY JITTERS RESURFACING The main BIST 100 index in Turkey fell 0.1%, after reaching a new three-week high the previous session. The Turkish court has issued a new arrest order on suspicion of "political spying" for Istanbul's imprisoned Mayor Ekrem Imanoglu, marking a further stage in the unprecedented crackdown against President Tayyip Erdogan’s opponents. Investors have been uneasy in recent months due to concerns about a democratic backsliding. The data released Monday shows that the unemployment rate in Canada remained at 8.6% for September. Separately the rand of South Africa strengthened by 0.1% against the US dollar, while the stock market also rose 0.1% following the removal of the country from the Financial Action Task Force "grey list". After its removal from this list, the Nigerian naira is poised to strengthen for the second consecutive day against the US dollar. Oil prices increased after fears were eased that trade tariffs and export restrictions between the U.S., and China, two of the world's largest oil consumers, would dent the global economy. In a recent note, economists from ING stated that they believed the meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping could lead to a formal agreement as well as a delay in the severe tariffs threatened by both countries in April. Saudi Arabia's benchmark oil price index was up 0.4%. Saudi Aramco shares rose 0.2%. (Reporting and editing by Conor Humphrey in Bengaluru, with Niket Nishant from Bengaluru)
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Gold prices fall as a potential US-China trade agreement dents demand for safe-haven assets
As investors looked for clues on rate cuts, gold prices dropped nearly 2% in the first week of April. As of 0837 GMT, spot gold was down by 1.3% to $4,059.22 an ounce. Prices reached a record-high of $4,381.21 in October, boosted by bets on U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical, economic and financial uncertainties. Since then, prices have fallen over 5%. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 1.6% to $4 072.40. Asian stocks surged on signs of a detente between China and the United States in trade tensions. This was a positive start to a busy week, which will include central bank meetings as well as megacap earnings. The UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that a possible trade agreement between the U.S. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will "come away" with a deal between China and the U.S., a day following a meeting of top officials from both countries to discuss a framework on which Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping would decide during their upcoming summit in South Korea. The Fed is expected Wednesday to reduce rates by a quarter of a percentage point, as a result of a lower-than-expected inflation rate for September. Markets are waiting for any remarks that Jerome Powell, Fed chair, may make at the meeting. Lower real interest rates should still be able to support the demand for gold. Staunovo said that the market consensus was for the Fed's rate to be cut by 25 basis points. "I don't anticipate much movement at the FOMC meeting." In a low interest rate environment, gold that does not yield tends to be more profitable. Silver fell by 1.3% per ounce to $47.36, platinum was down 0.3% at $1,601,75, and palladium rose 0.1% to $1429.61. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy and Subhranshu Sahu)
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Stocks rise, safe-havens fall on optimism about trade deals
Investors were encouraged by signs that trade tensions have cooled between the U.S. and China. This marked a positive start to a busy week of central bank meetings, megacap earnings, and other events. On Sunday, top Chinese and U.S. economists hammered out the framework for a trade agreement that U.S. president Donald Trump and his Chinese equivalent Xi Jinping will decide on this week during a meeting in South Korea. Investors are less concerned about the possibility of a break in a trade truce that has been established between the two world's largest economies if a deal is reached to halt higher U.S. import tariffs and Chinese export controls on rare earths. This sent Asian stocks soaring, with South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan indexes reaching record highs. In Europe, the positive mood was also felt, with shares rising modestly on a global basis, and the STOXX600 index up around 0.1%. US STOCK FUTURES - JUMP Investors will be looking for confirmation that the current trade truce is still in place and that China’s reform and stimulus signals are translating into a tangible growth momentum, said Charu Chanana. Chief investment strategist at Saxo. Futures for U.S. stocks jumped. Nasdaq futures rose 1%, while those for S&P 500 futures increased by 0.7%. George Boubouras said that the U.S. and China momentum was satisfactory in recent days. Over the past few weeks, the market has watched global tariff negotiations with the understanding that some of the commentary could be theatre and noise. The Chinese yuan rose to its highest level in over a month against the dollar of 7,1091. The People's Bank of China announced the official midpoint dollar rate before the market opened at 7.0881, its highest since October 15, 2024. This was above the estimate of 7.1146. Derek Halpenny, MUFG's head of research, said that the yuan could see further gains if a deal was made based on the details reported today. He said that investors would be more inclined to look at non-dollar currencies as they have better prospects. Gold, a safe-haven, fell by 1.3%, to $4,058 per ounce. U.S. Treasurys also slipped, resulting in a rise of 3.1 basis points for the benchmark 10-year yield, which is now at 4,027%. Commodities such as soybeans, corn, and wheat rose due to trade deals. CENTRAL BANK RESULTS ARE AWAIT This week, investors will be focused on the central bank meetings taking place in Japan, Canada and Europe. Federal Reserve rates are expected to be cut by 25 basis points, after September data showed that U.S. consumer price increases were slightly lower than expected. However, the impact of the government shutdown on data is still a concern. The dollar was slightly up at 152.87yen. It hovered near its two-week high. The euro remained flat at $1.1627. The dollar index was unchanged at 98.92. Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) are expected to keep rates unchanged this week. As concerns about a recession caused by tariffs ease, the BOJ will likely debate whether it is time to resume rate increases. However, political complications could keep this on hold. Focus on Megacap Earnings This week, the U.S. earnings reporting season will be at its busiest. Megacaps like Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet, as well as Amazon and Meta Platforms, are all expected to release results. The profit margin of the "Magnificent 7" companies is shrinking. Their huge market capitalisation means that their shares dominate equity indices. Stock market performance has been driven by the enthusiasm of a number of megacap companies in the artificial-intelligence industry.
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SandboxAQ, Bahrain's sovereign funds, signs deal with AI to speed up drug development
SandboxAQ - a U.S. artificial intelligence and quantum tech firm - signed an agreement on Monday with Bahrain's sovereign fund to speed up the development and creation of biotech assets valued at $1 billion. Mumtalakat, Bahrain, will license SandboxAQ’s large, quantitative models that are trained in physics, chemistry, and biology, to speed up drug discovery and scientific investigation. The deal was announced at the Future Investment Initiative, Saudi Arabia's premier investment conference. The statement said that the collaboration would help to position Bahrain as a regional hub for biotech, with a joint committee leading a program of three years aimed at creating valuable new drugs. SandboxAQ CEO Jack Hidary said the partnership will empower Bahrain to create, own and use intellectual property (IP) in biotech. This includes therapies that target diseases common in the region like diabetes and genetic disorders. "Traditionally, most biotech IP belongs to a few countries. Hidary explained that Bahrain can now develop its own assets focusing on both regional and global priorities in health. Bahrain's hospital infrastructure and digital health datasets will be used to develop treatments under the agreement. Hidary said that clinical trials will begin in Bahrain with the potential of multi-site studies. SandboxAQ is also receiving interest for similar partnerships from other countries including the Gulf. Aramco, the Saudi oil giant, signed an agreement in January with SandboxAQ that would allow it to use their models to boost the value of its downstream products. Mark Potter edited the report by Yousef Sabah.
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Exosens expands its capacity to meet the strong demand for night vision equipment
Exosens announced on Monday that it will nearly double its planned investment in capacity after the French defence tech firm's revenue for nine months jumped by 23%, due to an increase in demand for night-vision equipment from NATO member countries. The manufacturer of night vision equipment and components for scientific instrumentation expects to increase their global capacity by 40% by the year 2027. This is an increase from the 25% it announced in March. An additional investment of £17 million ($20 million) will be made in Europe. In a recent press release, Exosens CEO Jerome Cerisier stated that the company had decided to expand its capacity in an additional way. In the first nine-month period of this year, the company's sales grew to 327.8 millions euros. This was due to a 21% increase in the Amplification division and a 26% rise in the Detection & Imaging division. The company also confirmed its outlook for the full year. The number of military equipment orders has risen following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Washington's call for European allies' to increase defence spending. NATO countries committed in June to spending 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) on core defence, and 1.5% for broader measures of defence. This is a huge jump from the current target of 2% GDP. Exosens anticipates that night vision equipment will remain in short-supply through 2027. This is due to the fact that militaries are unable to reach their equipment targets. Cerisier stated that "Defense momentum is strong and continues gaining traction in Amplification, Detection & Imaging and Exosens, which is seizing growth opportunities driven by emerging applications like drone warfare and advanced technologies for night vision," Cerisier. The group said that it would also divest the loss-making Microwave Amplification division under an asset acquisition deal. Closing is due in early 2026.
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Japan's first fusion energy company achieves key milestone towards commercial reactor
Helical Fusion, a Japanese start-up company, announced on Monday that it had completed a crucial performance test of a superconducting coil at high temperatures. This marks a significant milestone in the commercialisation of nuclear fusion. Nuclear fusion is the process of smashing together atoms at high temperatures to produce heat, similar to the sun. It could, one day, generate enormous amounts clean energy with minimal radioactive waste compared to the fission reactors we use today. Despite 70 years of global research, there has yet to be a commercially viable fusion reactor. Helical Fusion announced that the HTS coil it tested, which is a key component in commercial fusion reactors replicated the magnetic field inside the device. It also achieved a stable flow of current under superconducting condition, marking a first for the world. The company can now proceed to build and manufacture its integrated demonstration device Helix HARUKA. This device is designed to demonstrate the feasibility of continuous and stable fusion reactions. Helical Fusion CEO Takaya Taguchi stated at a press conference that "this means the possibility of achieving the fusion power generation before the rest of world has been demonstrated." The company, as the sole inheritors of the helical fusion technologies developed by the National Institute for Fusion Science(NIFS), is developing the Helical stellarator. It aims to become the first commercially viable fusion plant based on the design in the 2030s. Sanae Takaichi has been appointed as Japan's prime minister. She has shown strong support for nuclear fusion, and this has led to increased expectations in the sector. Taguchi said that while the United States, China, and other countries have spent over one trillion dollars ($6.6 billion) to speed up fusion research, Japan has only spent about 100 billion dollars. Taguchi stated that he hoped the Takaichi Administration would bridge the gap between the U.S.A. and China or even surpass them through increased funding and policies support. According to a group representing the industry, global fusion energy investments have grown by $2.64 billion since July last year. However, companies say that more capital is required to make the industry commercial. Helical Fusion claims that out of the 50 fusion projects in the world, they aim to be the first to achieve all three key requirements of commercial viability: produce stable power, produce more energy than the system consumes and demonstrate the ability to maintain regular component maintenance. Commonwealth Fusion Systems (a spin-off of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) plans to build what it calls "the world's very first grid-scaled fusion power plant" in Virginia. The power plant is expected to be operational by early 2030s.
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Copper jumps 16 months high on optimism about trade deals
The copper price rose to a 16 month high on Monday as optimism grew over a possible U.S. China trade agreement. This was after the two world's largest economies outlined their framework for negotiation ahead of the leaders' meetings. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract closed the daytime trading at 88,370 Yuan ($12,406.29) a metric ton. This is a rise of 1.73%. It reached 88,700 Yuan per ton during the session. This was the highest level since May 2024. As of 0725 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper at the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.76% to $10,046 per ton. London futures reached a 16-month-high of $11,094 per ton during the session. This was a significant decrease from the previous all-time record high of $11,104.5 per ton. On Sunday, Chinese and American negotiators reached an agreement on a framework of a new trade deal. On Thursday, Donald Trump, the U.S. president and Xi Jinping, the Chinese president will meet in South Korea. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated that the framework would pause steep American duties on Chinese goods. He also said he expected Beijing to delay by a year its rare-earth export controls regime and resume purchases of U.S. soy beans. Li Chenggang, China's top trade negotiator, confirmed to reporters the "preliminary agreement". After the announcement of the framework, most other base metals gained as well. Other base metals in the SHFE rose by 0.61%. Zinc and nickel grew 0.34%. Tin jumped 1.15%. Lead was barely moved. The LME's other metals saw a slight increase in aluminium, with a gain of 0.84%. Zinc was up by 0.41%. Tin was up by 1.01%. Nickel was down 0.10%. Lead was not affected. $1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Ronojoy Mazumdar and Lewis Jackson)
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The new database of gold bars for listed refineries will be mandatory from 2027
The London Bullion Market Association's chief said that gold refineries will have to submit data to an online platform by 2027 in order to improve transparency. The LBMA oversees London’s over-the counter gold trading hub which is the largest in the world. Gold prices have risen by 55% this past year and reached a record of $4,381 a tonne on October 20. Added to the overall turmoil are concerns about U.S. Tariffs. Ruth Crowell, CEO of the LBMA, told the precious metals conference held in Kyoto, Japan, that "we will have voluntary period reporting from January next, and then moving to mandatory in 2020." In January, the association launched its Gold Bar Integrity Database to collect and process data faster from refiners on its "good deliveries" list. The "good delivery list" allows refineries access to the London Market, but it also requires them to source metal responsibly. Currently, refineries are required to report the country of origin for the metals they source once a calendar year to the LBMA. Crowell, a reporter, said: "We'd like to have a dialogue with refineries about this, but also to ensure that the solution is practical and that we don't create an unnecessary burden for them." The LBMA "good delivery list" includes 66 gold and 83 sliver refiners from around the world. The LBMA’s monthly data, which is publicly available and dates back to 2016, on the amount gold stored in London vaults was a vital source of information to the market in early 2018, when U.S. metal exports to the United States were sparked by tariff fears, causing concerns about remaining liquidity in London. Crowell stated that "we need to build upon this data, and Gold Bar Integrity's infrastructure and ecosystem are just that." "Markets are becoming increasingly complex." When you begin to source from other jurisdictions, we need to engage in dialogue with refineries. "We need to have faith in the gold underpinning this market." (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton; Polina Devtt, Polina)
Oil prices increase after US and China sign trade agreement
Oil prices rose Monday after U.S. economic officials and Chinese economic officials drew up a framework for a trade deal, allaying fears that tariffs or export restrictions between the two world's largest oil consumers would dent global growth.
Brent crude futures were up 47 cents or 0.71% to $66.41 per barrel at 0629 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 44 cents or 0.72% to $61.94 after rising by 8.9% and 7.7% respectively in the previous weeks due to U.S.
Haitong Securities stated in a note to clients that the market has improved expectations following the new sanctions against Russia and easing tensions between U.S. and China. This is countering concerns about crude oversupply which had pushed prices lower earlier in October.
U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that U.S. officials and Chinese officials have hammered out a "very substantive framework" for a deal, which will allow President Donald Trump to meet with President Xi Jinping this week to discuss the trade cooperation.
Bessent stated that the framework would allow for the avoidance of 100% U.S. duties on Chinese products and a postponement of China's export controls for rare earths.
Trump said that he is optimistic about a possible agreement between the United States and China.
Trump said, "I believe we will have a deal" with China. "We will meet with them in China later and then in the U.S. either in Washington or Mar-a-Lago."
Tony Sycamore, IG analyst, says that the framework for a trade deal helps to allay concerns about Russia's ability to offset new U.S. Sanctions, which target Rosneft, Lukoil and other oil companies, by offering deep discounts and using shadow-fleets as enticements.
Yang An, analyst at Haitong Securities, said: "However, in the event that sanctions against Russian energy prove less effective than anticipated, there could be a return of oversupply on the market." (Reporting and editing by Sonali Cushing and Christopher Cushing; Colleen Waye and Sam Li)
(source: Reuters)