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Gold prices rise for the seventh consecutive week on fears of a US shutdown and rate cuts expectations
Gold prices held firm on Friday as they headed for their seventh consecutive weekly increase, as the expectation of more U.S. rate cuts and concern over an extended government shutdown contributed to support. As of 0739 GMT on Friday, spot gold remained at $3,859.69 an ounce after reaching a record-high of $3,896.49 per ounce on Thursday. This week, the bullion price has risen by 2.7%. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were up 0.4% to $3,883. The U.S. shutdown is now in its third week, as of Friday. This has caused key economic data to be delayed, including the nonfarm payrolls report that was scheduled for Friday. Alternative data from both public and private sources showed that the U.S. employment market likely remained stagnant in September, with slow hiring and no change to unemployment rates. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that the data indicates the Fed will cut rates. "And as we expect further rate cuts in the coming months, this should further support the gold prices over the next few months. We are looking for the yellow metallic to surpass the $4,000/oz by the end this year." According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, investors are pricing in 97% of a rate cut of 25 basis points in October and 88% of another such cut in December. Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said that the Fed had taken out insurance against a sharp decline in the labour markets with its rate reduction last month but still needed to be cautious. In an environment of low interest rates, gold, which is often used to store value in times of political or financial uncertainty, thrives. Bullion prices have risen by 47% this year. In India, gold demand rose despite the record-high prices this week, and Chinese markets were closed on a holiday. Silver spot rose 0.7% at $47.30 an ounce. Platinum was up 0.2% at $1,571.91 while palladium increased 0.7%, to $1250. (Reporting and editing by Anmol Mukherjee and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru)
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Oil prices rise 1% following fire at US refinery. Set to end four-session loss streak
After four consecutive sessions of declines, oil prices rose by 1% on Friday following a fire at one of the biggest refineries in the U.S. West Coast. However, they were still on course for their steepest week-long fall since late June. Brent crude futures rose 61 cents or 1% to $64.73 per barrel at 0658 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude climbed by 62 Cents, or 1% to $61.10 per barrel. According to a county official, the fire was contained to just one area at Chevron’s El Segundo Refinery. The U.S. Energy Major also reported a flare-up emergency at its 290,000 BPD refinery that produces primarily gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel. Brent traded 7.6% lower and WTI fell 7% weekly due to expectations that OPEC+ could increase output despite concerns about oversupply. Sources told The Week that OPEC+ may agree to increase oil production in November by as much as 500,000 barrels a day, which is triple the October increase, because Saudi Arabia wants to regain market share. Tony Sycamore is an analyst with IG. He said, "If OPEC+ announces a 500,000 bpd hike this weekend, that's likely to be a large enough increase to send crude back down, first to the support level of $58.00 before testing this year's lowest levels (of about $55.00)." Analysts say that a potential increase in OPEC+ oil supply, a slowdown in global crude refinery operations due to maintenance, and upcoming seasonal drops in demand will accelerate the buildup of oil stocks in the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventory rose last week due to a decline in refining and demand. JPMorgan analysts wrote in a report that they believe September was a turning-point, and the oil market is now headed towards a large surplus in Q4 of 2025 as well as next year. The Group of Seven finance ministers announced on Wednesday that they would increase pressure on Russia, targeting those countries who continue to buy Russian oil. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Jacqueline Wong, Mrigank Dhaniwala, and Sudarshan Varadhan)
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ASIA GOLD - India's festive spirit boosts demand for gold; China is on holiday
The physical gold demand in India increased this week, despite the record-high prices. A major festival in India's second largest bullion market boosted purchases while Chinese markets were shut for a holiday. Indians celebrated Dussehra, the day when gold is considered auspicious. Amit Modak is the CEO of PN Gadgil and Sons, a jeweller. Despite the fact that demand has increased this week, experts in the industry say it is still lower than last year. Modak stated that the share of gold coins in small denominations rose, but jewellery volume declined due to higher manufacturing costs. The overall festive demand is nearly 15% lower than last year. On Friday, domestic gold prices were around 117.200 rupees for 10 grams after reaching a record-high of 117.300 rupees in the morning. Indian dealers quoted a premium This week, the premium could be as high as $9 per ounce, which includes 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes, compared to last week's $7. India's gold and silver imports nearly doubled from August to September, despite record prices. A Mumbai-based gold dealer said that the festive season started on a better note than anticipated, as buyers continued to purchase despite increasing prices. Chinese markets will be closed during the Golden Week and reopen October 9th. Last week, gold discounts for the top bullion consumer increased to $31-$71 an ounce. Peter Fung said that if we see a correction in the price, there could be a strong buying activity once the Chinese market returns after the holiday. People would still want to buy gold, and they are confident about gold on the long-term. In Hong Kong, gold In Singapore, the price was $1.50 higher than in Singapore. Gold traded at par prices with a premium of $2.20. In Japan, bullion The price was equal to or higher than spot prices by $1 per ounce.
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Chevron refinery fire in Los Angeles
California Governor Gavin Newsom’s press office announced on Thursday that a fire had broken out at Chevron’s El Segundo Refinery, which is one of the largest refineries on the U.S. West Coast. A county official added that the flames were contained to a single area. CBS reported that officers and firefighters were rushed to the refinery after hearing reports of an explosion. Newsom's Press Office said on X that "our office is working with local and state agencies in order to... ensure public security." CBS reported that police said they did not know of any immediate injuries, evacuations or other incidents. Holly Mitchell, Los Angeles County supervisor at the time, had stated that crews contained fire to a single area of the refinery. The U.S. Energy Major also reported emergency flare-ups at El Segundo in a regulatory filing. Chevron's website states that the refinery has a rated capacity of 290,000 barrels daily. Its main products include gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel. The refinery's total storage capacity in approximately 150 large tanks is 12 million barrels. Karen Bass, mayor of Los Angeles, said that the Los Angeles Fire Department is available to help with any requests for assistance. She added that "there is no impact known to LAX" at this time, referring to the busy airport in the city. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez in Bengaluru, Shivani Tanna, Anmol Choubey)
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French and Benelux stocks: Factors to watch
Here are some company news and stories that could impact the markets in France and Benelux or even individual stocks. The President of Mozambique, Daniel Chapo, said that TOTALENERGIES Mozambique has met the conditions to lift the force majeure for its $20 billion LNG project in Southern Africa. DEME GROUP The Belgian engineering company said that it had secured a contract to transport and install inter-array cable at the Nordseecluster A offshore wind farm located in Germany. CARMILA The French shopping centre operator launched a tender on four existing bonds worth 300 million euros. Pan-European market data: European Equities speed guide................... FTSE Eurotop 300 index.............................. DJ STOXX index...................................... Top 10 STOXX sectors........................... Top 10 EUROSTOXX sectors...................... Top 10 Eurotop 300 sectors..................... Top 25 European pct gainers....................... Top 25 European pct losers........................ Main stock markets: Dow Jones............... Wall Street report ..... Nikkei 225............. Tokyo report............ FTSE 100............... London report........... Xetra DAX............. Frankfurt items......... CAC-40................. Paris items............ World Indices..................................... survey of world bourse outlook......... European Asset Allocation........................ News at a glance: Top News............. Equities.............. Main oil report........... Main currency report..... ($1 = 0.8540 euros) (Writing by Gdansk Newsroom)
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The animal spirit can't be stopped by the politics of Europe and the US
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The U.S. government shutdown and political gridlock are not likely to end any time soon. Stocks and gold have still reached new record highs as investors focus on the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting path. Markets are taking a more risky approach, despite the possibility of a prolonged shutdown. Due to the shutdown, traders don't need to wait for Friday's U.S. employment report. However, manufacturing data across Europe could influence the markets and highlight the impact of tariffs. We have said that for some time, but the data has only shown a limited impact. The latest data showed that U.S. manufacturing increased in September. However, new orders and employment remained low as factories struggled to cope with the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs. Europe may be in for more of the exact same. This may not deter stock markets, where the pan-European STOXX 600 finished Thursday at a new record high. Its yearly gains now total 12%. Futures point to another strong opening. The rise in global stock prices is largely due to the AI mania that has been a constant and the increasing bets on the Fed cutting interest rates this year. Without government data, traders are turning to private reports which show a slowing labour market. This has strengthened the belief that the Fed is going to lower rates again. Traders have priced in a rate cut for later this month. As a result, gold prices have been soaring. The yellow metal is on track to finish the week with a profit for the seventh consecutive time, bringing the yearly gain up to a staggering 47%. Investors will be watching for any new deals announced after Trump announced an agreement with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla to reduce drug prices in exchange of relief from tariffs planned on imported pharmaceuticals. Sources said that the Trump administration has been pursuing deals in up to 30 industries involving dozens companies considered critical to national and economic security. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. Economic events: September PMIs in France, Germany, UK, and Euro zone
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French 25MW Floating Offshore Wind Farm Officially Inaugurated (Video)
France's first floating wind farm, the 25 MW Provence Grand Large, located in the Gulf of Fos in the Mediterranean Sea, has officially been inaugurated.The wind farm has been developed by the EDF Group, through its subsidiary EDF Renewables, and Enbridge Éolien France 2, a subsidiary of Enbridge and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments).It features three Siemens Gamesa 8MW floating wind turbines, installed on floats with taut anchor lines developed by SBM Offshore and IFP Energies Nouvelles.The wind farm will supply the equivalent of the electricity consumption of 45,000 people each year.“This 25 MW project has been already operating for many months, supplying electricity to the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region. It is the first floating offshore wind project in France and the first globally to be project financed,” said George Walley, Vice President and Head of Offshore Wind at Enbridge.
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Gold to rise for the seventh week on hopes of US rate cuts and government shutdown
Gold was stable on Friday, and set to make a weekly gain for the seventh time in a row. This was boosted by expectations that U.S. rates will be cut further this year, and concerns about the effects of a U.S. shutdown. Gold spot was unchanged at $3.851.99 an ounce as of 2:47 GMT after reaching a record high of $3.896.49 per ounce on Thursday. Bullion prices have risen by 2.4% this week. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.2% to $ 3,874.40. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that the rise in the dollar has caused a minor bump for gold prices, but it is still within shouting range of $3,900. Overall, the conditions are ripe for Gold to continue its march forward. With a U.S. Government shutdown creating uncertainty about GDP impacts, and lower U.S. Interest Rates likely to arrive again this month. The U.S. shutdown lasted a second full day on Thursday. This could delay the release of important economic data, such as the non-farm payrolls reports due on Friday. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Lorie Logan said that the U.S. Central Bank took some insurance against a sharp deterioration of the labour market when it cut its rates last month. However, she added that the bank should be "cautious' with any further easing. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders have priced in a 25 basis point rate cut this month as a near certainty. In an environment of low interest rates, gold, which is often used to store value in times of political or financial uncertainty, flourishes. Bullion prices have risen by 47% this year. Perth Mint gold sales rose 21% in September from the previous months, while the silver sales reached a five-month record. Silver spot fell by 0.2% at $46.85 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.2%, to $1.565.90, and palladium rose 0.4%, to $1.245.59. (Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
Why are private petrol retailers in Indonesia facing shortages?
Indonesia's private petrol retailers are experiencing gasoline shortages as a result of a surge in demand. This is due to the fact that consumers have moved away from Pertamina, which is owned by the state. They were concerned about its fuel quality. The government has also capped imports.
Shell, BP and other companies have had to sell diesel only at many fuel stations.
Why did fuel demand at private retailers surge?
In February, Indonesia's Attorney-General named former executives from Pertamina as suspects in an investigation into corruption. He claimed that the executives had given instructions to mix lower-grade gasoline with 92-octane, which might cause engine problems. State energy firm denied this claim and promised to improve transparency.
Many consumers still switched to private retailers.
In a Wednesday parliamentary hearing, the Energy Ministry said that Pertamina’s gradual change in late 2017 to require customers to register for a code QR before buying subsidised gasoline was also a factor. In Indonesia, only Pertamina offers subsidised gasoline.
The ministry's data shows that the daily sales volume of Pertamina 90-octane fuel subsidised by the company fell 5% in July this year, while sales of all grades of gasoline not subsidised rose 19%.
Pertamina is expected to sell 7 million kilolitres of non-subsidised gas this year (44 million barrels), while private companies will likely see a 91% increase in sales to 1.35 millions kilolitres.
Pertamina’s share of the unsubsidised gas market in January-July, this year, dropped from 89% to 85%.
Why don't private retailers import more fuel?
Shell and BP AKR, a joint-venture that operates BP gas stations, asked for additional gasoline import quotas in June after the demand surged. This week, executives from both companies told a parliamentary panel.
The Indonesian energy ministry sent a letter on July 17 to five private petrol retailers in the country, stating that each retailer's 2025 imports of gasoline were limited at 10% over what they sold last year.
Laode Suleman, senior official in the energy ministry, explained that the limit was set to ensure a healthy balance sheet of commodities.
CAN PRIVATE RETIENDERS import through Pertamina?
According to Laode, the government instructed private companies last month to import via Pertamina. Pertamina still has 6.81 mililitres of unutilized import quotas for 2025.
Pertamina agreed to import base gasoline, which is not dyed or blended with additives. The first cargo of 100,000 barrels for private companies arrived last week.
What's stopping private retailers from buying base fuel from Pertamina?
Pertamina has faced some challenges in allowing retailers to purchase fuel.
Pertamina announced last week that Vivo, a retailer affiliated with Vitol, had agreed to purchase 40,000 barrels from the first import cargo. Achmad Muchtasyar said that the deal failed because the fuel contained ethanol.
Vanda Laura told a parliamentary hearing that BP-AKR also wanted to purchase a portion from the 100,000 barrel shipment. They asked Pertamina for a certificate of source to prove the cargo wasn't sourced from producers sanctioned by the government.
Shell stated at the hearing it was conducting due diligence and early stage talks with Pertamina. (Reporting and editing by Fransiska Nangoy, Florence Tan, and Christian Schmollinger).
(source: Reuters)