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Analyst Mielke says palm oil and soyoil will rise by $100-$150/ton early in 2026.

Analyst Mielke says palm oil and soyoil will rise by $100-$150/ton early in 2026.

Thomas Mielke, a leading industry analyst, said that tightening supply will cause palm oil and soybean oil prices to increase by $100 to 150 per metric tonne between January and 2026.

Mielke, who spoke at the Globoil India Conference, said that both oils would also benefit from an increase in biodiesel production in Brazil, the U.S. and Indonesia.

He said that the global production shortfall will be more pronounced from January to March.

He estimated that the growth in palm oil production, the most popular vegetable oil in the world, is slowing down. Only 1.14 million additional tons are expected to be produced in 2026 compared with the current year.

He said that the Malaysian RBD palm oil prices, which are currently around $1,080 a ton, on a "free-on-board" basis, will rise by more than $150 a ton, if Indonesian government actions to seize palm plants have a negative impact on production.

Agrinas Palma Nusantara is the state-owned palm oil company in Indonesia. It has 1.5 million hectares, which makes it the largest palm oil plantation by area. The company can produce 5.7 million tonnes of crude palm oil per year.

He said that Argentine Soyoil is currently undervalued at around $1,050 a ton FOB and could increase, mainly due to increased biodiesel consumption.

He said that while sunflower oil trades at a premium to rival soyoil in the first quarter of the year, this will disappear by the third quarter, as supplies from Argentina and the Black Sea improve.

He said that imports of sunflower oil in India, China, and other important markets are on the decline. However, this trend will reverse itself once the premium for sunflower oil is removed.

Buyers in India, which is the largest vegetable oil importer in the world, are currently paying a premium of $140 per ton over soyoil.

He said that India's imports of vegetable oil in the 2025/26 year (starting November 1) are expected to increase by 1.5 million tonnes from a previous year. They will reach a record level of 18 million tons. (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra, Shilpi Majordar, and Rajendra Jadhav)

(source: Reuters)