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Australia's "maze of uncertainty" scuppers $40 billion in M&A and clouds outlook
In Australia, the biggest buyouts in 15 years have failed this year. Misaligned valuations and regulatory risks are adding to the challenges of navigating a regulatory environment that is becoming increasingly strict. The ADNOC-led group's decision to withdraw from its bid of $18,7 billion for Santos (Australia's second-largest gas producer) is the latest high-profile deal to fail in Australia in this year. Sources reported that the ADNOC bid, via its investment vehicle XRG was shelved because of disagreements between the parties on potential capital gains taxes relating to a Santos property. Analysts said that the deal would also have had difficulty being approved by Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board. Analysts said that the bid, including Santos's debt, was the largest cash offer ever made in Australian history. According to LSEG, the collapse of the deal has pushed up the value of failed transactions to its highest level since 2010. This raises questions about the feasibility and viability of large-scale deals in Australia. Advisors say that the lengthy approval process, which includes reviews by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, FIRB and various government agencies, makes it difficult to complete deals in Australia. Garren Cronin is a managing director of Cadence Advisory. He said that factors such as technological changes disrupting multiple industries, and the new ACCC regulations effective Jan. 1, which require regulatory pre-approval for most deals, had made deal conditions more difficult. Cronin stated that "Regulatory overreach by the ACCC has created a maze-like uncertainty." "The ACCC has successfully pushed for a mandatory review process... which has added a significant burden to the deal activity." In the past, companies were able to seek ACCC approval voluntarily in order to reduce the chance of the regulator interfering with deals they deemed anti-competitive and enforcing them. 'MORE STRESS, TENSION' ACCC spokesperson said that the new regime is designed to "strike the right balance" between preventing and detecting anti-competitive purchases, while still allowing those acquisitions which are unlikely to cause competition issues to be completed with certainty. This includes a provision that allows low-impact acquisitions to request a waiver to remove the notification obligation. However, advisers said that the longer timelines to complete the regulatory process and finalise large ticket transactions increase the risk of the deal. Lance Sacks is a corporate partner with Baker McKenzie. He said: "Time kills deal, whether it's private M&As or public M&As. Losing momentum in the current M&A climate." There's a valuation gap. The funding is available, but it has to make sense. "Buyers (and) corporate boards are much more thoughtful, diligent and cautious before they make a decision." Peabody Energy pulled out of its $3.8 billion offer for Anglo's Queensland assets in August, while Brookfield & Bain withdrew their $2.5 billion bids earlier in 2025 for Insignia Financial. The Australian financial services company signed a $2.2 billion purchase agreement with New York-based CC Capital in July. David Eliakim, KWM's M&A practice leader, said that some bidders who were considering complex deals tried to anticipate future regulatory issues which could arise from the FIRB or ACCC. This has led to some more difficult issues being discussed and addressed before the bid documents are signed. This creates more tension and stress than would otherwise be possible, and this in turn affects whether or not transactions are completed. (Reporting and editing by Scott Murdoch, Sumeet chatterjee, Kim Coghill).
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Cnergyico, Pakistan's Cnergyico, orders a second US oil shipment and looks to more
Cnergyico, Pakistan's biggest oil refiner, has placed a second order for U.S. crude, after determining that its first purchase was commercially viable. Its vice chairman announced this on Wednesday. This opens the door to more imports. Vice Chairman Usama Qureshi announced that Vitol would deliver a cargo of 1 million barrels of West Texas Light crude (WTL) in November, under Cnergyico’s agreement with the European trader for a term supply. Qureshi stated, "This is our 2nd cargo. Our trading team evaluated crudes for November and found WTL crude's gross refinement margin to be slightly higher than (Gulf crude). If economic conditions remain favorable, we plan to continue importing. Ship-tracking data provided by Kpler revealed that the decision was made just weeks after the first ever U.S. crude oil cargo bound for Pakistan sailed from Houston aboard the Suezmax Tanker Pegasus chartered to Vitol. The ship will dock in Karachi at the end of October. In August, Pakistan and Washington signed a landmark deal that allowed the U.S. to import energy in exchange for lower tariffs for Pakistani exports. Donald Trump has encouraged foreign partners to increase U.S. oil purchase under such agreements. The Middle East has been the main source of crude oil for most of the country's history. Qureshi stated that Cnergyico - which operates Pakistan's single-point mooring facility capable of handling large tanks - is looking at additional U.S. purchases if the market conditions remain supportive. The arbitrage opportunity for U.S. crude cargoes loaded in November to Asia is threatened by a rise of shipping costs and spot premiums on West Texas Intermediate crude. This benchmark U.S. stream has risen. Cnergyico will also expand capacity by building a second terminal offshore and investing in long-term upgrades. Qureshi is betting on an increase in the domestic fuel demand. Reporting by Ariba Shehid in Karachi, and Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore. Additional reporting by Arathy Sommesekhar in Houston. Editing by Florence Tan & Christian Schmollinger.
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Shanghai copper rates little changed amid US rate cuts uncertainties
The copper price was little changed on Tuesday as traders were cautious about when the U.S. would cut rates again, and doubts persisted about whether China will provide more stimulus in order to boost its economic growth. As of 0800 GMT, the most traded copper contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange was 0.04% higher, closing daytime trading at 79.970 yuan (11,233.32 dollars) per metric tonne. London Metal Exchange's benchmark copper for three months fell by 0.1%, to $9.965 per ton at 0804 GMT. Jerome Powell, the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said that on Tuesday it was important for central banks to balance competing risks such as high inflation and an eroding job market. The Fed's policy divisions are evident in the arguments of other officials, which has led to uncertainty about future rate cuts. The U.S. Dollar strengthened, which weighed on the market. The dollar is stronger, making commodities that are traded in the greenback costlier for investors who use other currencies. China's key lending rate remained unchanged on Monday for the fourth consecutive month, following a U.S. interest rate cut. This left investors wondering if Beijing would implement more stimulus measures, and kept sentiments cautious. Galaxy Futures analysts said that the wet material incident at Freeport’s Grasberg mine operations remained unresolved and was affecting supply of raw copper concentrate. Aluminium rose by 0.1% among other SHFE base-metals, while zinc fell by 0.46%. Nickel increased 0.2%. Lead declined 0.32%. Tin rose 0.52%. $1 = 7.1190 Chinese yuan renminbi $1 = 7.1190 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson and Janane Vekatraman).
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Asian stocks recover as China's tech sector roars back
The stock market in Asia recovered on Wednesday after Wall Street's losses. A renewed interest in artificial intelligence and semiconductors fueled China's tech rally. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan reversed an earlier decline by as much as 0.5% in the morning session, to be up by 0.1% at mid-afternoon. Chinese stocks were the leaders, with the STAR 50 Index up 3.6% and a measure of Hong Kong listed companies rising 1.5%. Alibaba's Hong Kong listed shares increased by up to 7.8% following the announcement on Wednesday of its largest AI model ever, the Qwen3 Max. UBS analysts stated in a research report that "the upward trend for A shares has accelerated since August, with major indexes breaking through October 2024's highs." This has led to a positive money-making impact that is slowly attracting investors from the sidelines. After two days of declining, the dollar index was up 0.2% to 97.438. The dollar rose 0.3% against the yen to 148.05. U.S. Stock Futures rose 0.2% last, following a decline on Wall Street Tuesday. After remarks made by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, the S&P 500 fell 0.6%. This was its largest one-day drop in three weeks. In a recent note, DBS analysts noted that "U.S. equity and bond yields fell because Fed Chair Jerome Powell explicitly described equities in his speech as being 'fairly valued' and acknowledged there was no policy with a 'risk-free' path." "He didn't commit to aggressive rates cuts due to the difficult situation of balancing upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment," DBS analysts wrote in a note. Asian stocks remain near their four-year highs and are on track to have the best month in a long time this month, thanks to a weaker dollar, an increase in regional technology shares, and the Federal Reserve's policy of easing. Australian shares were the main drag on Asian benchmarks on Wednesday. They fell by 0.9% and extended losses following a higher-than-expected increase in consumer prices for August. Capital Economics analysts stated in a recent research note that, "Although it won't give much attention to the rise in headline inflation rates, the strength of core inflation rates will make the RBA pause and think." The Nikkei index of Japan was up 0.3% last time, reversing previous declines. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that traders have increased their bets for further rate cuts in the United States. Fed funds futures now indicate a 91.9% probability of a rate reduction at the central banks October meeting. This is up from an 89.8% chance on Tuesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 4,1042% from its U.S. closing of 4.118% Tuesday. The yield on the two-year bond, which increases with traders' expectation of higher Fed fund rates, dropped to 3.5673% from a U.S. closing of 3.57%. The U.S. economy data released Tuesday has stoked concerns about growth. S&P Global's purchasing managers' index data shows that business activity in the U.S. slowed down for a second consecutive month in September. Citi analysts stated in a note that "the S&P PMIs are softer than the preliminary September release but remain in expansion, and both are within the range of recent months." They said that the headline figures were misleading, and the actual numbers showed more weakness. Analysts said that the composite output price index had fallen to its lowest level since April. Anecdotes indicate that companies are finding it difficult to pass on higher costs to customers due to weaker demand and increased competition. Brent crude oil prices were last up 0.1%, at $67.71 a barrel. This was after an agreement to resume exports out of Iraq's Kurdistan fell through, which calmed some investor fears that the restart could exacerbate concerns about global oversupply. After hitting a record-high on Tuesday, spot gold was up by 0.3% to $3,773.36 an ounce.
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In India, Kolkata floods have killed at least 12 people.
Officials said that at least 12 people were killed as heavy rain lashed eastern Indian city Kolkata and its surrounding areas in advance of a major celebration, flooding the streets, disrupting transportation and leaving residents stranded. The rain was the heaviest in Kolkata since 1988. It amounted to 251.6 mm (9.9 inches) of rainfall in 24 hours. The police said that nine people were electrocuted in Kolkata. They added that two people drowned. Rains have brought West Bengal's capital city to a complete standstill. This has seriously hampered preparations for Durga Puja, the largest Hindu festival in the state. Damage was also caused to many pandals (temporary structures made of bamboo or other materials for the festival) and clay idols, which were built by the locals. In some places, roads were submerged in water up to the waist. This forced commuters and drivers to wade their way through flooded streets. Several flights, trains, and road traffic were disrupted. Multiple areas were affected by power outages for several hours, adding to the residents' frustration. Ranjan Panda is a water and climate specialist. "I was stranded at my hotel because my flight was cancelled and all the roads were flooded," he said. The authorities have said that they are deploying water pumps to clean streets and rail tracks. They also say that food distribution, emergency services and relief measures such as the deployment of water pumps, is underway. IMD has predicted that the Bay of Bengal low-pressure system will cause more rain to fall in the state of West Bengal and Eastern India over the coming days. The state government closed all schools on Wednesday and Thursday, before the festival holidays begin. Officials have said that conditions will return to normal by Wednesday night. They also urge residents to be cautious as the water level in low-lying regions gradually drops. This should not have happened following four hours of rainfall. West Bengal's condition is bad, Sandip Ghosh told Indian news agency ANI. He has a small stake in the company. (Reporting and editing by Sudipto Ganuly, Lincoln Feast, and Jatindra dash in Bhubaneswar).
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The season for choppy morning bids is upon us.
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. It's strange that, despite the fact we have passed the autumnal equinox and are now in the pumpkin spiced latte period, the markets still don't show the usual weakness at this time of year. That is, until today. Stocks in Asia are dropping after overnight Wall Street sell-offs sparked by weaker-than-expected data on the economy and comments made by Jerome Powell, who gave little clues as to where interest rates will go. Around lunchtime, the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan index is down 0.2% for most of Asia. Even with soggy data, the index has still risen 5.6% this month, and is hovering around a 4-year high. The usual dip buyers were not around, as U.S. stocks futures traded flat. Early European trades showed pan-region futures down 0.4%, DAX futures off by 0.3%, and FTSE Futures down 0.3%. Australian shares fell almost 1% following a higher-than-expected increase in consumer prices for August. Japan's Nikkei index fell 0.5% in September after the manufacturing sector saw its fastest decline in six months, driven by a further drop in new orders. There were still some bright spots, particularly in the Chinese markets. Alibaba's Hong Kong listed shares rose 5% on Wednesday after the ecommerce giant announced its largest artificial language model, the Qwen3Max, that contains more than one trillion parameters. This is almost six times more than the original ChatGPT version released three years earlier. New Zealand named Anna Breman its new central banking governor on Wednesday. She is the first woman to hold the position. The move comes after a major shakeup of the bank following criticisms over its economy management. Breman is the first deputy governor of the Riksbank, Sweden's central banking institution. Jimmy Kimmel has returned to the airwaves following a six-day ban for comments made on the air about the man suspected of assassinating Charlie Kirk, a conservative activist. "I cannot believe ABC Fake News has given Jimmy Kimmel back his job," U.S. president Trump wrote on Truth Social. He threatened further action against network. He posted: "Why would they bring back someone who is so bad, who is not funny and who puts Network in danger by playing 99% positive Democrat garbage?" The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. Economic Data Germany: Ifo Business climate, current conditions and expectations for September Weekly crude oil stock report by EIA: US: new home sales for August Debt auctions: Germany: 7-year government debt U.K.: 4-year government debt
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Shanghai copper rates little changed despite US rate cuts
The copper price was little changed on Tuesday as traders were cautious about when the U.S. would cut rates again, while there remained doubts about whether China will provide more stimulus in order to boost its economic growth. As of 0334 GMT, the most traded copper contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange was up 0.03%, at 79.960 yuan per metric ton ($11,237.76). By 0334 GMT, the benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange had risen by 0.01% per ton. Jerome Powell, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, said on Tuesday that the central bank must continue to balance competing risks such as high inflation and a weakened job market. Arguments from other Fed officials, however, showed policy divisions within the Fed. This led to uncertainty about future rate cuts in 2018. The U.S. Dollar strengthened, which weighed on the market. The dollar is stronger, making commodities that are traded in the greenback costlier for investors who use other currencies. China's key lending rate remained unchanged on Monday for the fourth consecutive month following the U.S. rate cut. This left investors in doubt about whether the Asian nation would continue to implement stimulus measures, and investor sentiment was cautious. Galaxy Futures analysts said that the incident involving the leakage of wet material at Freeport’s Grasberg mine operations remained unresolved. This kept supply of raw copper concentrates tight. Aluminium was unchanged among other SHFE base materials, while zinc fell 0.21% and nickel increased 0.27%. Lead lost 0.26%, and tin rose 0.5%. The price of nickel, tin, and zinc on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were all down. Aliminium, lead, and zinc, however, did not change much. $1 = 7.1513 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson)
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Equinor Gets Clearance to Use Deepsea Bollsta Semi-Sub for North Sea Ops
Norway’s offshore industry safety watchdog Norwegian Ocean Industry Authority (Havtil) has given Equinor consent to use the Deepsea Bollsta semi-submersible rig for operations in the North Sea.The rig will be used for plugging, drilling and completion of wells on the Visund Sør field, located in the northern part of the North Sea, 10 kilometers northeast of the Gullfaks C platform.The water depth in the area is 290 metres. Visund Sør was discovered in 2008, and the plan for development and operation (PDO) was approved in 2011. The field is developed with a subsea template tied to Gullfaks C. Production started in 2012.Deepsea Bollsta is a semi-submersible drilling facility of the Moss CS60E type, built at the Hyundai Heavy Industries shipyard (HHI) in South Korea and completed in 2019.The rig, under a two-year contract with Equinor valued at $335 million, is owned by offshore drilling contractor Northern Ocean and managed by Odfjell Drilling.
Ukraine's drones attack Russia's largest petrochemical facility
On Wednesday, the local governor announced via his Telegram channel that Ukrainian drones had attacked the Salavat Petrochemical Complex, located in the Bashkortostan Region, which is one of the largest in Russia. This was the second attack on the complex in less than a seven-day period.
"Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat was the victim of another terrorist drone strike. We are assessing damage. Radiy Khabirov stated that all emergency services were on the scene and that firefighting was underway.
Last week, drones attacked the same complex controlled by Gazprom.
Ukraine intensified drone strikes on Russia's vast infrastructure of oil and gas in recent weeks, targeting refineries, export pipelines and other facilities. Peace talks with Moscow are stalled.
According to traders and retailers, Russia faces a shortage of certain fuel grades due to the attack on refineries, which has reduced their production. High borrowing costs also mean that private filling stations can't afford to stockpile gasoline.
Ukrainian drones also struck an oil refinery earlier this month in Ufa. Bashkortostan’s regional capital is located about 1,400 km (870 miles), away from the Ukrainian border.
The Salavat Petrochemical Complex produces gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products, as well as butyl alcohols and polyethylene and polystyrene. (Reporting and Editing by Christopher Cushing, Bernadettebaum)
(source: Reuters)