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ArcelorMittal abandons plans to produce green steel in Germany because of high energy costs
ArcelorMittal said that the energy costs in Germany were too high to allow it to convert its two German plants to carbon-neutral production. The German industrial sector is still suffering from the shock of losing the Russian gas which had been powering its factories for decades. This decision also calls into question the green hydrogen policy launched by the former government. The government hoped that the subsidies would encourage ArcelorMittal's existing plants in Bremen, in the north, and Eisenhuettenstadt, in the east, to use furnaces fueled with hydrogen. Hydrogen can be produced from renewable electricity. The steelmaker stated that it decided to not proceed with its plans due to the high energy prices in Germany and the uncertainty surrounding the future energy mix. The first electric arc smithies are being built by countries with competitive and predictable electricity supply, it stated. It highlighted a recent investment into a forge powered by electricity in France. It said that "electricity prices in Germany were high by international standards as well as compared to neighboring countries." The steel industry of Europe was also affected because so many consumers imported electricity instead of buying it from local producers. The German Economy Ministry regretted the decision of the company. The important thing to remember is that there has been no payment yet. In an email, a spokesperson for the ministry said that "no money needs to be reclaimed". Germany approved subsidies of 6.9 billion euro for steelmaking projects which further its climate objectives, including the amount for the now dropped Arcelor project. The ministry spokesperson confirmed that three other projects - from Thyssenkrupp, Salzgitter and Stahl-Holding-Saar - are still in progress. TKSE, Salzgitter and both companies said that they would continue to build green steel plants and called upon the government to improve market conditions for these projects. Germany is building rapidly renewable electricity networks. However, the transition away from Russian gas, which has been a long and painful process, has proved to be lengthy and costly, despite the generous subsidies offered to industries who rely on gas to switch over to hydrogen. The conservative-led coalition government, which took office in this year, has criticised the left-leaning previous government's strategy on energy but so far hasn't outlined a radical new approach. Geert van poelvoorde, ArcelorMittal Europe's head of Europe, said: "The European steel sector is under unprecedented pressure in order to maintain its competitiveness." "And this is before decarbonisation costs." He called on the European Commission (EC) to take action to limit imports of certain types of steel into Europe.
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Mercury poisoning in Peru’s Amazon region threatens health catastrophe
Loreto, Peru: Illegal gold mining pollutes the region Nearly 80 percent of the population has mercury levels that are unsafe Most at risk are pregnant women and children By Dan Collyns Test results revealed this month showed that nearly 80% (of those tested) had mercury levels far above the safe limit in six communities along the Nanay River and Pintuyacu River. Jairo Reategui davila, Apu or leader of San Antonio de Nanay - one of the communities tested - said that the majority of its population was contaminated. He said, "We are concerned and we want the authorities to act." Results showed that 37% of 273 men and women tested had mercury levels in their hair exceeding 10 ppm. This is compared to only 3% of those who were below the safe limit of 2.2 ppm set by the World Health Organization. Gold prices are up nearly 50% over the past year. This is a record-breaking increase, which has encouraged a flourishing gold mining industry that damages local biodiversity and nature, as well as raising serious health concerns. Claudia Vega is the head of CINCIA's mercury program. She said that illegal miners use toxic mercury to extract gold from river silt, and then burn it off. The vapour produced by the burning turns into a poisonous gas, which is absorbed in the soil, plants and rivers. Mercury poisoning can cause a variety of health problems, including cognitive impairment and learning disabilities in children and infants. Gabriel Barria is the regional coordinator of heavy metals at the local health authority. He said that it was "very unfortunate" that the villagers had been highly contaminated. He blamed mercury levels in Amazonian rivers on the illegal gold mining. He stated that the health authority didn't have the budget for tests to detect mercury. Only 12 people were tested during a recent visit by the health authority using blood and urine samples. EXCEEDING LIMIT CINCIA reported that tests showed an average level of 8.41 ppm. This is nearly four times higher than the WHO limit. There are currently no studies that have been conducted on the health effects of illegal mining on Loreto's local population. The levels found in these first tests are higher than the average levels of mercury in 2012 in Madre de Dios in Peruvian Amazon, the region most affected by illegal gold-mining. Luis Fernandez is the executive director of CINCIA, and a Research Professor at Wake Forest University. He said that if illegal mining in Loreto continued, then villages with high mercury levels could begin to move closer to those living near the worst case of mercury contamination. Minamata Bay is a case that was well-known in Japan during the 1950s. Children were born with neurological disabilities and congenital deformities as a result of a chemical plant dumping mercury in the water for years. Vega, the CINCIA researcher who conducted the study, stated that the results revealed "background" mercury levels in Loreto's riparian communities. She said that it was impossible to determine if the mercury in the water came from natural sources or from human activities such as illegal gold mining. However, she did say it was mainly caused by the villager's diet of fish. She said that "several scientific studies have shown that mining in a particular area tends to increase the mercury levels in the surrounding environment". According to the newly published study, people are mainly exposed methylmercury. This highly toxic form accumulates in our bodies.
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Russia signs an investment agreement with Myanmar and sees offshore oil prospects
The Russian government signed an agreement on Friday with Myanmar that could provide new opportunities to Russian energy companies operating in the country. After signing the agreement with Kan Zaw (Minister of Investment and Foreign Economic Relations of Myanmar), the Myanmar Minister of Foreign Economic Relations and the Economy, Maxim Reshetnikov, said: "We particularly note the Myanmar side's readiness to attract Russian companies for the development of offshore gas and oil fields." The deal will help speed up projects, including those in Myanmar's Dawei Special Economic Zone where a 660MW coal-fired thermoelectric power plant is under construction. Russia is building stronger ties with Myanmar’s military junta. The junta seized power by overthrowing the Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government in 2021. According to the United Nations, the country struggles with internal conflict, a shattered economy, widespread hunger, and a third out of 55 million people needing aid. In March, Junta Chief Min Aung Hlaing signed a contract with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the construction of a small nuclear plant in Myanmar. The two countries had signed a memorandum a month before on the construction of an oil refinery and port in the Dawei Economic Zone. The Russian government stated that the agreement signed on Friday will facilitate cooperation across a range of areas, including agriculture, metallurgy and transport infrastructure. Mark Trevelyan, Gareth Jones and Mark Trevelyan edited the article.
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Palm oil gains for the sixth week in a row, and is at its highest level since two months.
Malaysian palm oils futures closed higher on Friday. This was the sixth weekly gain in a row, despite a weak demand for palm oil in major markets. The benchmark contract for palm oil delivery in September on Bursa Derivatives Malaysia Exchange increased 11 ringgit or 0.27% to 4,115 Ringgit ($968.24), the highest closing rate since April 15. This week, the contract increased by 4.79%. Paramalingam Supramaniam said that trading volumes were relatively low and prices had been largely accounted for by most internal and external factors. "For the trend to continue, it will be necessary for more bullish news." Demand will be crucial in July, as the current market rally is based solely on external forces and has yet to demonstrate a robust increase of demand. Palm oil contracts in Dalian gained 0.05%, but the most active soyoil contract grew 0.44%. Chicago Board of Trade soyoil prices rose 1.5%. As palm oil competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oil market, it tracks price changes of competing edible oils. Exports of palm oil products from Malaysia during the period June 1-20 increased between Comparing the same time period from a month earlier. After the White House postponed a decision regarding U.S. involvement with the Israel-Iran Conflict, oil prices dropped, but were on track for a third weekly increase. Palm oil is less appealing as a biodiesel feedstock due to the weaker crude oil futures. The dollar has strengthened by 0.16%, increasing the price of palm for foreign currency holders. The dollar is worth 4.2500 ringgits. (Reporting and editing by Ashley Tang, Sonia Cheema, and Shreya Biwas).
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Finance Ministry: Russian energy, transportation, and finance companies are among the candidates for privatisation
The Russian state-owned energy, transport, and financial sectors are among those that will be privatised, said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov on Friday as Moscow sought to raise money for the federal government budget. Moscow, shunned since the start of the Ukraine conflict by Western capital, has sought ways to increase domestic private investment and economic efficiency, as well as, ultimately, boost budget revenues, given that Russia is spending heavily on the war. Siluanov, at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, said on Friday, "It's a very delicate topic right now. But I can tell you that it's energy, finance and transport." Siluanov stated that "we are interested in attracting money to develop companies." "There are difficulties in financing large companies' investment programmes." Since months, officials have teased the market by teasing it with hints as to which companies might be potential candidates for privatisation. In 2010, under the reformist Alexei Kudrin's leadership, the Finance Ministry launched a multiyear campaign of privatisation to dispose state assets. However, the plan ultimately failed. In 2010, the state sold a stake to oil giant Rosneft. Siluanov proposed reviving the dormant drive for privatisation in late 2023. He submitted a list 30 names of companies to the government as part of a proposal where the state would retain control stakes. The ministry announced in March that the sale of shares to seven large companies would generate up to 300 billion rubles ($3.8 billion) next year for the budget. A number of major Russian companies have complained about the prohibitive costs of borrowing with interest rates of 20%. Elvira Nabullina, Governor of the Central Bank, said that preparing state-owned firms for initial public offering (IPOs), would require serious planning. In the past few years, Russia has also had difficulty attracting investment. Western companies have withdrawn funds while investors from friendly countries to Moscow are not picking up the slack.
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Ministry: Armed men on motorbikes killed 34 Niger soldiers
The Defence Ministry reported that several hundred armed men, including many riding motorbikes, attacked an army base in Niger near the Mali border, killing at least 34 soldiers and wounding 14 others. According to a statement read on state television, the attackers -- described by the ministry as "mercenaries," used eight vehicles and over 200 motorbikes during the raid at the Bani-bangou base on Thursday. The group responsible was not named. Niger, along with other countries of West Africa's Sahel, are fighting islamist militants tied to al Qaeda or Islamic State. The ministry did not go into detail about the attack but said that troops carried out air and ground searches to secure the area. (Reporting and writing by Moussa Aksar, Ayen Deng Bior; editing by Andrew Heavens).
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Oil prices fall, but stocks rise after Trump's Middle East pause
The stock markets rose on Friday, while oil was close to its largest daily decline since April as President Donald Trump delayed a decision about U.S. involvement in the Israel/Iran conflict. This week, the Middle East has again been a major factor in the top world indexes. All of Europe's major bourses rose between 0.5% and 1% following similar gains in Asia. However, it was still up for grabs whether this would be enough to stop MSCI's world index from suffering a second consecutive weekly loss. Israel bombed Iranian targets and Iran fired missiles against Israel overnight, as the war that began a week ago continued. However, Friday's market movements, which included a slight drop in the US dollar, revealed reassurance. The White House's announcement on Thursday that Trump would decide whether to get the U.S. involved in the war in two weeks, rather than immediately, was the main factor. The European Foreign Ministers will meet with their Iranian counterpart at Geneva on Friday to try to find a diplomatic solution to the dispute over Iran's nuclear program. Oil prices dropped to $76.10 a barrel when the U.S. decided not to enter the conflict. They were still at $77.10 a barrel last, but up 4% on the week and 22% for the month. Derek Halpenny, MUFG's strategist, said: "Brent crude has fallen 2.5% today as a clear sign that concerns over escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have eased." The price of gold, a traditional safe haven for traders, also fell on Friday, although Nasdaq futures, S&P500, and Dow Futures all ended the day in the red, after the U.S. market had closed on Thursday. Asian shares gained 0.5% over night thanks to a 1.2% increase in Hong Kong's Hang Seng. The stimulus plans of newly elected president Lee Jae Myung also saw South Korea's Kospi surpass 3,000 points for first time since 2022. China's central banks kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged as was widely expected in Beijing. Meanwhile, data from Japan revealed that core inflation in Japan hit a 2-year high in may, putting pressure on the Bank of Japan. This in turn lifted yens and drove down Nikkei, the heavily export-driven stock in Tokyo. OIL RETREATS The dollar ended an otherwise positive weekend lower than the previous day. The euro was up 0.3% to $1.1527, and the pound was 0.2% higher to $1.3494. The U.S. Bond market, which also was closed on Thursday, resumed its trading, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.39%. German 10-year yields, which are Europe's benchmark borrowing rate, dropped 2.5 basis points to 2.49 percent. Gold prices fell 0.5%, to $3,354 per ounce. However, they were still set for a loss of 2.3% on a weekly basis. The main focus of the commodity markets remained oil. Brent crude futures in London were down by $1.60 or 2.2% at $77.28 per barrel, but they are still on course to finish the week with a 4% gain. PVM analyst John Evans stated that the biggest market risk from the Middle East turmoil was "unintended actions which escalate the conflict and touch upon oil infrastructure". He said that the world had more than enough oil for 2025. However, he warned against the worst-case scenario, which would see 20 million barrels per day blocked on the Arabian Seas, no matter how briefly.
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The corporate agreement that protects the Amazon from soy agriculture is starting to crack
Brazilian soy farmers have been pushing deeper into the Amazon rainforest in order to plant more crops. This puts pressure on an historic deal signed 20 years ago that was meant to slow down deforestation. A loophole exists in the Amazon Soy Moratorium. This voluntary agreement was signed in 2006 by the top grain traders of the world that they would no longer buy soy produced on deforested land after 2008. Moratorium The law protects the old-growth forest that has not been previously cleared. However, it excludes other types of vegetation or forests that have grown back on land that was cleared in the past, also known as secondary forests. Farmers can plant soy on this land without violating the Moratorium's terms. They could even sell it as being deforestation free. The latest official annual report, which covers crop year 2022-2023 showed that the soy planted in virgin forests has nearly tripled from 2018 to 2023. This amounts to 250,000 hectares or 3.4% of the total soy grown in the Amazon. The study is only limited to those municipalities which grow more than 5,000 hectares soy. Xiaopeng Song is a professor in the Department of Geographical Sciences at the University of Maryland. He has been tracking the expansion of soybeans over the last two decades and found that the forest loss was more than four-times as high. Satellite data that he exclusively analyzed for shows that 16% or 1.04 million hectares of Brazilian Amazon land is under production for soybeans. This includes areas where trees were cleared since 2008, which was the date set in the Moratorium. Song said, "I'd like to see secondary forests and recovered forests included in the Moratorium." It creates loopholes, if we limit it only to primary forests. Abiove overseeing the Moratorium on deforestation said in a press release that the agreement is intended to curb the destruction of old growth forests, while other methods have broader criteria which could lead to "inflated" interpretations. Abiove refused to provide granular information, so it was impossible to compare the two. The data in the Moratorium Report comes from Brazil's National Institute of Space Research. Its assessments are internationally recognized and independently monitored. Abiove confirmed that it knew some soy had been planted in areas where the regrown forest had been cut. The difference in how a forest is defined has huge implications on conservation. Climate change-driven deforestation, heat and drought are bringing the rainforest to a tippingpoint beyond which its irreversible transformation begins. Scientists are calling for an end to deforestation and increased efforts in reforestation. Viola Heinrich is a postdoctoral researcher with the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences who has studied extensively secondary forests in Amazon. She said that these are "crucial" to limiting global climate change, even if they were initially less biodiverse. We cannot achieve our goals Paris Agreement "We cannot increase the carbon sink without increasing ecosystems' regeneration." She said. Carbon storage and absorption Secondary forests store less carbon than old-growth trees, but they absorb it faster. 'STOLEN AGAIN' Farmers were clearing land on a hot afternoon in late 2012, near Santarem. Santarem is a port town by the Amazon River. The stacked felled trees, which were ready to be burned, were neatly arranged in rows. Satellite images revealed that some of the trees were over 30 years old and part of an abandoned secondary forest, which was once cleared to make room for cattle. Gilson Rego of the Pastoral Land Commission (a church-affiliated organization that works with locals who are affected by deforestation) pointed out areas in which soy was planted. Rego has seen the area dedicated to crops grow in the last five year. More than a dozen farmers, both subsistence and soy producers, who were interviewed said that the Cargill terminal nearby was the most attractive because it reduced logistics costs. Cargill has not responded to requests for comments. Brazil is set to surpass the United States as the largest soy exporter in the world by 2020. Around two thirds is shipped to China. Cofco, the largest buyer in China, has committed to the Moratorium. It is almost exclusively used to fatten livestock for meat production. Song estimates that if the Moratorium had not been implemented and conservation efforts were not undertaken, an additional 6,000,000 hectares would have been lost in the Brazilian rainforest to soy, based on the rate of expansion. He said that Bolivia was a hotspot for deforestation. Brazilian farmers have been against the Moratorium for years. They complain that even small amounts of deforestation will cause traders to refuse purchases from whole farms. Abiove has considered changing this policy. At the moment, thousands of properties covering 10% of the footprint of soy in this region are blocked. Adelino Avelino noimann, vice president of Para state's soy farmers association, located in Santarem, said that the soy boom created opportunities for a country in poverty. Noimann said, "It is unfair that other countries could deforest or grow while we are stifled by laws not even our own." LEGAL ATTACKS Farming organizations allied with right wing politicians, a once fringe movement, launched lawsuits and legislation attacks against the Moratorium, in Brasilia and half a dozen agricultural states. They sought to weaken the provisions. A justice of Brazil's Supreme Court announced at the end of April that it would allow Mato Grosso to remove tax incentives for signatories to the Moratorium. The full court must still confirm the ruling. Andre Nassar has hinted at the possibility of a weakening of the rules in order to appease the farmers. Nassar, in April, told Senators that the solution was not to end the Moratorium. "Something must be done." ADM, Bunge Cargill Cofco, Louis Dreyfus Company, and other global traders signed the agreement in 2006. Abiove, the grain traders that it represents, have refused to discuss details publicly. However, Greenpeace which has been involved in some discussions and is part of Abiove's group, stated last year that traders were pushing to weaken this agreement behind closed doors. Even with its flaws, environmentalists such as Andre Guimaraes - an executive director of IPAM, a nonprofit organization that monitors the accord - said it was still important. He said, "We continue to see the expansion in soy in Amazon." But it could have been worse. Environmentalists say that loopholes should be closed to strengthen the law. Para is a place where farmers have been moving from all over the country. This includes the heartland of soy, Mato Grosso. Edno Cortezia is the president of the local farmer's union. He said that the farmers can harvest soy, wheat, and corn on the same plot within a year. In the municipality of Belterra, near Santarem only a cemetery and a school were spared from soy expansion. Raimundo Edilberto Sousa Freitas (the principal) showed court documents and supporting evidence in two cases where 80 children and teachers displayed symptoms of pesticide poisoning last year. The records show that a farmer was fined later, but the crop continues claiming more area each year. The last remnants of the once lush biome are a few large trees, protected by law, that remain in the soy fields. (Reporting and editing by Manuela Andréoni, Brad Haynes, and Claudia Parsons; Additional reporting by Ana Mano, Sao Paulo)
Oil prices on the rise as tensions in the Middle East flare
Brent crude oil has risen by around 20% in June and is set to make its biggest monthly increase since 2020, as tensions between Israel/Iran flare up.
The rise in oil prices, although relatively modest, has been noticed just three years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This triggered an increase in energy costs that pushed up global inflation rates and led to aggressive interest rate increases.
What does the rising price of oil mean for global markets?
How high is it?
Investors are comforted by the fact that oil production has not been disrupted, and so prices have increased slowly rather than spiking.
Attention!
Investors priced in a higher chance of Middle East supply disruptions, as the premium for Brent crude first-month futures contracts compared to those for delivery six months from now this week reached a six-month-high.
Oil is trading at $77 per barrel. It is still below the $139 peak of 2022, but it is approaching pain points.
Christophe Boucher, CIO at ABN AMRO Solutions, said that if oil prices stay in the 80-100 dollar range for a long time it would be a serious threat to the global economy. "We're just below the threshold."
SHOCK 2/ IN SUPPLY?
Shipping is often viewed as an important energy indicator by traders.
Around a fifth (25%) of all oil consumed in the world passes through the Hormuz Strait, which connects Oman with Iran. Analysts say that disruptions here could push the price of oil over $100.
Blockade of shipping routes will compound any supply shock. Nadia Martin Wiggen, director of Svelland capital, stated that despite the 1.2 million extra barrels a week promised by OPEC+, none have yet been delivered or shipped.
She said that if shipping routes are blocked, this supply will not reach the international market.
She is closely monitoring freight rates.
Wiggen said that the freight rates indicate that China has not yet panicked and bought oil due to supply concerns.
Once China begins to buy, freight prices and energy prices around the world will increase.
3/ NO OIL NO GROWTH
The rising oil price is a cause for concern because it can increase inflation in the near term and harm economic growth through squeezing consumer spending.
According to economists, high oil prices are like a tax. This is especially true for countries that import energy in large quantities, such as Japan or Europe, as oil can be difficult to replace on a short-term basis.
Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, said that oil prices over $100 per barrel would reduce global economic growth by 1% and increase inflation by 1%.
Israel's strike against Iran last week triggered a wave of unease. The initial rise in safe-haven bond prices soon faded away as the focus shifted to the inflationary effects of higher oil.
The five-year euro zone forecast, which is closely watched as a gauge of inflation expectations on the market, has risen to its highest level for almost a week.
Frances Donald, chief economist at RBC, said that if the oil price rises to $75 per barrel, it will boost the CPI by about a half-percent by year's end. This would take the CPI from 3.5% to 3.5%.
The rise in crude oil prices will be felt most by Turkey, India and Pakistan. Morocco, too, is heavily dependent on imported oil. Analysts say that those who supply oil, such as Gulf countries, Nigeria Angola Venezuela, and Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, will benefit from the rise in crude prices.
Oh king dollar
The dollar is changing.
The currency has gained in recent years when oil has rallied, but its latest increase has only been a limited one, with just a 0.4% weekly gain.
Analysts anticipate that the downward trend of the dollar will resume given expectations about Middle East risks being limited for now, and underlying negative sentiment.
The dollar has fallen around 9% against major currencies so far this season, hurt by the economic uncertainty and concerns about the U.S. president Donald Trump's administration being a reliable trading and diplomatic partner.
A weaker dollar will certainly ease the pain of higher oil prices, since they are priced in dollars.
UniCredit stated that the fall of the dollar offers relief to oil-importing nations, as it reduces the impact of rising oil prices, and also eases wider economic strains.
5/ COMPLACENT STOCK?
World stocks are content to remain near their all-time highs in the absence of a sudden oil supply shock.
Investors will look past it until there is a reason for them to believe that this conflict will grow to be much more serious, said Osman Aly, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s global co-head Quantitative Investment Strategy.
Gulf markets initially fell on initial news but then stabilized, aided by higher oil prices. U.S. energy stocks, especially oil and gas companies, and defence stocks have performed well.
Israeli stocks have outperformed all other markets, with a 6% gain in one week.
Airlines are the most affected, but oil-consuming stocks have also been hit hard.
(source: Reuters)