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Oil price volatility and the Israel-Iran conflict has investors on edge

Oil price volatility and the Israel-Iran conflict has investors on edge

Investors were nervous ahead of the markets' reopening on Sunday evening. The risks ranged from increased prospects of a wide Middle East conflict to U.S. protests against Donald Trump, which threatened further domestic chaos.

Israel and Iran have launched new attacks against each other on Sunday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israeli strikes will intensify, as Tehran has called off the nuclear talks which Washington had argued were the only way to stop the bombing.

Yemen's Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, also joined the fray.

The price of oil rose by 7% Friday as Israel and Iran exchanged strikes. Investors will be closely watching the market opening to see what happens.

Samy Chaar is the chief economist at Lombard Odier. He said that we are still in a phase of "controlled confrontation" and it's too early to predict real economic damage, despite the high risks.

He said: "For the moment, we are seeing spikes in oil prices, volatility and everyone is a little nervous. But there's no sign that the scenario of no return has arrived."

Israel may have struck Iran's oil-and-gas industry for the very first time on Saturday. Iranian state media reported a fire at a gasfield.

Israel's air assault against Iran, which began in the early hours of Friday morning, killed commanders, scientists, and bombed nuclear sites, all to prevent Tehran from building an atomic device, knocked down risky assets, including stocks, Friday. The air offensive also increased oil prices, and led to a rush for gold and dollars. For the first time since months, they were seen as safe-haven assets.

The oil prices are at a six-month high, and this could be a threat to inflation as central banks across the globe grapple with Trump's tariffs on trade and their impact on the economy.

Chaar, a Lombard Odier economist, said that a rise in oil prices shouldn't in theory affect monetary policy at this time. This is because any disruption in Iranian oil supply could be partially offset by increases in production elsewhere.

Chaar added that the days of central banks raising rates due to a surge in oil prices are long gone. Instead, policymakers would be more likely to focus on the fundamentals of the economy and the drivers for demand.

Investors remain nervous, however, as the S&P 500 has stalled out after rallying by about 20% since its April lows caused by trade wars to reach near-record highs.

Alex Morris, Chief Investment Officer of F/m Investments Washington said: "The risk profile is too high to return to the market at this time."

Meanwhile,

Protests

The "No Kings Coalition" has organised a protest against

The policies of and the

assassination

The resignation of two Minnesota state legislators on Saturday has added to the negative mood.

U.S. Stock Futures will resume trading on Sunday at 6 pm (2200 GMT).

Investors' expectations of near-term market fluctuations jumped as risky assets fell.

The Cboe Volatility Index (often called the "fear index" of Wall Street) rose 2.8 points on Friday to close at 20,82, its highest closing in three weeks.

Michael Thompson, coportfolio manager of boutique investment firm Little Harbor Advisors said that he will be monitoring volatility futures near-term prices to see if they rise towards or above the levels for futures expiring in a few months.

He said: "This would suggest to us that short-term hedging was warranted." Reporting by Saqib Ahmed and Linda Pasquini, Editing by Alden, Richard Chang and Amanda Cooper, Susan Fenton and Susan Fenton

(source: Reuters)