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Climate body: Tibetan glacial lake discharge caused deadly floods in Nepal
A regional climate monitoring organization said that the flooding in Nepal's Bhote-Koshi River, which killed nine people this week and left over two dozen others missing, was caused by the draining of an supraglacial water in Tibet. After Tuesday's floods, which washed the 'Friendship Bridge,' linking Nepal and China, at least 19 people remain missing, including six Chinese employees of the Beijing-backed Inland Container Depot. China's official Xinhua News Agency has reported that 11 people are missing on the Chinese border. Satellite imagery from Kathmandu's International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development said the flood was caused by the draining of a lake north of Nepal’s Langtang Himal range. Sudan Maharjan is a remote-sensing analyst at ICIMOD and an expert on glaciers. He said, "This is based upon the preliminary analysis based off of the satellite images available." Surrounding debris-covered glaciers can form a supraglacial pond. Experts say that it often starts as a small meltwater pool, which then expands and merges to form a large supraglacial lakes. Saswata Sannyal, a second ICIMOD official said that such events are increasing at a "unprecedented pace" in the Hindu Kush Mountains, which span Afghanistan, Bangladesh Bhutan, China India Myanmar Nepal Pakistan. Sanyal stated that "we need to dig deeper into the triggers which are resulting cascading effects." Nepal's mountainous region is susceptible to climate change effects such as extreme weather patterns, inconsistency of rainfall, flash flooding, landslides, and glacial lake floods. The early monsoons this year have caused deadly damage in Nepal. At least 38 people are dead or missing in Nepal since May 29. This is according to the National Disaster Relief, Reduction and Management Authority. Reporting by Gopal sharma; editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan
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Investors unfazed with Trump's tariff moves, Asian shares are up on Nvidia.
Asian stocks rose on Thursday on the back of optimism following Nvidia's rise to a record $4 trillion valuation. Investors also shrugged off President Donald Trump's recent tariffs. U.S. Copper Futures increased their premium over the London benchmark overnight, after Trump announced his plans to impose 50% tariffs on copper. Later, on Wednesday, he said that the tariffs would be in effect from August 1. Trump's trade anger also turned against Brazil on Wednesday, as he issued notices of tariffs and threatened a 50% punitive tariff on Brazilian exports to the U.S. The recent moves have not caused much of a stir in the markets. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan is up 0.4%. The Nikkei Index fell by 0.6%. China's blue-chip CSI300 index increased by 0.4%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.1%. The FTSE Futures and EuroStoxx 50 Futures both gained 0.4%. Nvidia, a designer of artificial intelligence chips, became the first company in the world to reach a market cap of $4 trillion on Wednesday. This solidified its position as arguably one Wall Street's favourite stocks. Chipmaker Disco, with a 4.3% increase in value, was the biggest gainer in Japan. U.S. Stock Futures Weakened in Asia on Thursday. Nasdaq and S&P 500 Futures each fell about 0.2% after both indexes had closed higher overnight. Jeff Ng of SMBC, Asia macro strategy head, said that investors are "numb" about the constantly changing situation. "They know there is still room to negotiate." Many of these announcements start with impressive numbers but are not final and are subject to change. "Even if implemented, these changes could be reversed within the next few months or even a year," said he. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate reductions later in the year also kept stocks supported. The minutes of the Fed meeting held last month showed that "most participants" expected rate cuts to occur later this year. Any price shocks from tariffs are expected to be "temporary and modest". Ng stated that markets do not currently price in a large chance of a full blown recession, as the labour market is still quite resilient. However, they are aware that there is a lot pressure on policy rates to drop, which could reduce the opportunity costs of holding stocks. DOLLAR EASES The dollar fell against the euro on Thursday, but held its own against yen, at 146.27. This was after Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Japan earlier in the week. The euro rose 0.17%, to $1.1742. Sterling gained 0.11%, to $1.3605. The Brazilian real was an exception, as it sank to a low of 5.5826 dollars per Brazilian real in response to Trump's threat of tariffs on Latin America's biggest economy. Julia Wang, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, said: "Despite the S&P 500’s impressive rally the U.S. Dollar continues to retreat. This highlights a changing global macro narrative." We believe that the dollar is still 5-15% undervalued. We expect further weakness as cyclical trends and capital reallocation play out. Bitcoin was near its record high at $111 085, ether rose 1.3% to $2 779. "We are seeing our clients adopt a more measured strategy, investing in cryptocurrencies that have real utility rather than chasing short-term movements. Bitcoin is still the most popular choice on OKX Singapore's platform," stated Gracie Lin. Brent crude futures fell 0.16% on Thursday to $70.08 a barrel. U.S. crude dropped 0.22% to $68.02 a barrel. Spot gold increased 0.3% to $3322.69 per ounce.
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Demand for oil is skewed by Trump's tariffs
The oil prices fell on Thursday, as market participants viewed the latest tariff announcements from U.S. president Donald Trump as a threat against global economic growth. However, signs of strong U.S. gas demand helped to limit losses. Brent crude futures fell 3 cents to $70.16 per barrel at 0401 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude lost 6 cents, to $68.32 per barrel. In a recent note, Kpler, an analytics firm, noted that the geopolitical risks premiums had diminished with the Israel-Iran ceasefire. After a public spat, Trump threatened to impose a 50% penalty on Brazil's exports to the U.S. Trump had announced tariffs for copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. His administration also sent tariff letters to Iraq, the Philippines, and other countries. These letters were added to more than a dozen that his administration issued earlier this week, including to U.S. powerhouse suppliers South Korea, and Japan. Minutes released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday show that policymakers are still concerned about inflationary pressures caused by Trump's tariffs. Only "a few" officials said they thought interest rates could drop as early as this month. The cost of borrowing increases with higher interest rates, and the demand for oil decreases. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that the rise in crude oil stocks and declines in gasoline and distillate stockpiles last week helped support prices. The EIA reported that gasoline demand increased 6% last week to 9.2 millions barrels per day. J.P. Morgan stated in a note to clients that global daily flights averaged 107,600 during the first eight days in July. This is an all-time record. Flights in China reached a peak of five months, and port and cargo activities indicated a'sustained growth' in trade activity from last year. The note stated that "year to date, the global oil demand has grown by an average of 0.97 million barrels a day, which is in line with our prediction of 1 million barrels a day." Tony Sycamore is an analyst with IG. He said that there are doubts about the increase in production quotas recently announced by OPEC+, since some members have already exceeded their quotas. He said that "others, such as Russia, are unable meet their targets because of damaged oil infrastructure." OPEC+ producers will approve a big increase in output for September as they finish both the unwinding and the United Arab Emirates moving to a higher quota.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Markets not shaken by Trump's tariffs
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow. The price movement of stocks in recent days has shown that investors have become less interested in Donald Trump's tariffs. Asia shares rose on Thursday, riding the wave of Nvidia's quick rise to $4 trillion in valuation. Futures indicated similar gains for Europe in the afternoon. On Wednesday, the U.S. president launched his tariff attack into overdrive. He announced a new tariff of 50% on U.S. imports of copper and a duty 50% on Brazilian goods. Both duties will begin on August 1. The Brazilian real and copper prices fell in Brazil and London, but there was little impact on other markets. Bitcoin was still near its record high, and the dollar dropped as investors took on more risks. They chose to ignore the Trump headlines. Money managers and analysts used the words "desensitized" and "numb", but it is unclear how long they will continue to use them. Investors are waiting to see the progress on a deal between U.S.A. and European Union. Trump said that he "probably" would tell the EU what rate they could expect to receive for their exports to the U.S. soon, and added that the 27-nation group had become more cooperative. EU Trade Chief Maros Sefcovic stated that good progress was made on a trade framework agreement, and a deal could be reached within a few days. Trump's latest delay in implementing tariffs has given hope to Japan, South Korea, and the European Union, that deals could be made to reduce duties. However, some exporters, such as South Africa, are confused and have no idea what to do next. Investors are taking the news with a smile and have little reason to panic. They put their trust in "TACO", an acronym for Trump always chickens out. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. Weekly U.S. jobless claims Alberto Musalem and Mary Daly, Federal Reserve speakers Are you trying to stay up-to-date with the latest news on tariffs? Our daily news digest provides a quick overview of the most important headlines that impact global trade. Tariff Watch is available here.
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Top negotiator: Indonesia and US are looking to expand their partnership on critical minerals after a 'positive meeting'
The meeting between Indonesia and the United States in Washington over the impending tariffs was "positive", Indonesia's chief negotiator told reporters on Thursday. Both countries are exploring a broader partnership in the vital minerals sector. The U.S. has imposed a 32% duty on Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia. This is due to its strategic importance for global trade. Airlangga Hartarto, the chief negotiator of Indonesia and its economic minister, said that he had met Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as well as U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer on Wednesday in Washington. Airlangga’s ministry stated on Thursday that they discussed tariffs, nontariff barriers, and commercial partnerships. They added that both countries would intensify their talks in the coming three weeks. "We have an agreement with the U.S. on the same lines regarding the discussions. Airlangga stated in a statement that we would make every effort to conclude these negotiations according to the principle of mutual benefits. Indonesia and the United States have set their sights on a larger partnership in the crucial minerals sector of the former, citing Airlangga’s Ministry's large nickel, cobalt and copper reserves. Indonesia is the G20's largest economy. It is the world's leading exporter of palm and tin oil, as well as a major metal producer. Indonesia has been a key player in the trade talks. Proposed slashing It offered to reduce the duties on American goods to almost zero, and to increase U.S. investments and purchases in the country. This would amount to about $34 billion Recently, several Indonesian companies signed agreements with their counterparts in the United States to increase their purchases of energy, wheat, corn, and cotton. (Reporting and writing by Bernadette Cristina and Ananda Terresia, with editing by David Stanway.)
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Empire Energy, Ellevo Set Up Joint Offshore Wind Lifting and Transport Unit
Empire Energy and Ellevo Group have launched a strategic joint venture for offshore wind lifting and transport consultancy services to meet the evolving demands of the offshore wind industry across the globe.The collaboration combines Empire’s hands-on operational experience with Ellevo’s technical expertise to enhance project delivery in the lifting and transport consultancy sector.Operating under the name Empire Energy – Ellevo (e³), the joint venture provides coordinated solutions for lifting and heavy transport operations across the offshore wind project lifecycle.From Pre-FEED and FEED studies through to marshalling, pre-assembly, commissioning, and operations and maintenance, it integrates engineering assurance with on-the-ground delivery experience.The joint venture is focused on supporting clients with early-stage constructability reviews, engineered lift planning, lifting operations management, inspection and verification, third-party assurance, and specialist consultancy services.“This joint venture marks a pivotal moment for both organizations. With Empire Energy’s operational footprint and Ellevo Group’s specialized engineering expertise, we are uniquely positioned to deliver next-generation lifting and transport consultancy services across the energy and infrastructure sectors,” said Jordan Kelly, Managing Director of Ellevo Group."At Empire, our strength has always been in delivering offshore wind managed services with precision, reliability, and scale. This joint venture with Ellevo brings in world-class engineering, lift planning, and assurance capabilities that perfectly complement our operational expertise. It’s a powerful combination that reinforces our position as a trusted delivery partner in the sector,” added Mike Milledge, President of Empire Energy.
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Iron ore reaches multi-month high in hopes of a steel supply cut and Chinese stimulus
Thursday, iron ore futures prices rose for the third consecutive session, reaching multi-month highs. This was due to a resurgence of optimism about a new reform wave to curb steel production and additional stimulus measures by China, its largest consumer. As of 0318 GMT on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most traded September iron ore contract was trading 1.97% higher, at 751 Yuan ($104.64), a metric tonne, which is the highest price since April 3. As of 0308 GMT the benchmark August iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange rose 1.96%, to $97.95 per ton. This is the highest price since May 26. The main reason for the rise in prices is the anticipation of supply-side steel reforms, according to a Shanghai analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to media. On Wednesday, the head of China's state planner announced that the country's economy would exceed 140 trillion yuan in this year. Meanwhile, the second largest economy in the world has been battling a long-running trade war with the United States as well as persistent deflationary forces. Analysts at Yongan Futures said that this fueled some hopes about "whether there will be more stimulus in the high level meeting later this month." Pei Hao is an analyst with Freight Investor Services, a brokerage in international. She says that iron ore has benefited from the recent rally on the coal markets, which was fueled by the expectation of reforms at the supply side. Pei said that there was no fundamental shift in iron ore supply and demand. Although shipments fell, a decrease in arrivals is likely to be visible until late July. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, also saw gains. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have strengthened. Hot-rolled coil, rebar, wire rod, and stainless steel all gained.
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Prices of copper in London and China are near their 3-week-lows due to the looming US tariff of 50%
The London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) saw copper prices drop on Thursday. They were near their lowest level in three weeks, due to President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1. Trump announced a 50% tariff for copper on Wednesday, stating on social media the tariff would take effect on August 1, and that it was a decision made following a national assessment. The LME's three-month copper rose 0.19%, to $9,649 a metric ton, by 0111 GMT. Meanwhile, the SHFE's most traded copper contract fell 0.75%, to 78.320 yuan. Both contracts were near their lowest levels since June. The COMEX copper contract that was the most active on Wednesday hovered around its record high and its premium over the LME copper increased to 26%. A futures analyst in Shanghai commented: "Traders are very sensitive and alert. Only limited cargoes can still make it to the U.S. by August 1. Therefore, most have stopped betting on higher LME and SHFE price premiums and have stopped using the premium. COMEX inventories The analyst stated that copper prices are at a seven-year high. In the next few days, supplies of copper may be shipped to other countries, which will ease regional supply shortages. LME aluminium rose 0.27%, to $2.603.5 per ton. Nickel was up 0.24%, to $15.015, while tin was up 0.2%, to $33,350. Zinc increased by 0.2%, to $2.748, and Lead advanced by 0.12%, to $2.058.5. SHFE aluminium rose 0.93% at 20,705 yuan per ton. Zinc was up 0.84% to 22,265 yuan. Tin was up 0.5% to 264,890 yuan. Lead gained 0.26% at 17,245 yuan. Nickel was up 0.12% at 119,600. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. Data/Events (GMT) 0600 Germany HICP final YY June 200900 Germany, France and UK Q3 Comprehensive Risk 1230 Initial US Jobless Clm, 5 July (w/e) 1430 EIA Nat Gas Bcf, 4 July (w/e) 1430 Nat Gas-EIA implied flow, 4 July (w/e)
Pertamina Indonesia is seeking up to 2.8 millions barrels of petrol for July-December. This excludes Singapore supplies
Documents released on Monday showed that Indonesia's Pertamina had issued five tenders to supply nearly 3 million barrels per month of gasoline for delivery between July-December. Two of the bids excluded Singapore from the source of supply.
Indonesia may reduce fuel imports from Singapore in order to increase the supply of fuel from the United States, as part of negotiations regarding steep U.S. Tariffs.
Documents reviewed by revealed that the state-owned refiner wants to purchase up to 1.6 millions barrels of 90 octane gas per month, for delivery between July-September or July-December this year.
The company is also looking for another 1.2 millions barrels of gasoline with 92-octane per month during the same time period.
Offers are valid until 30 May.
The majority of cargoes are likely to be delivered in Tuban, Tanjung Uban Merak, Semarang Balongan Plumpang.
Pertamina Patra Niaga's trading arm did not respond immediately to a comment request.
Pertamina is seeking to cancel or delay at least 1,000,000 barrels of gasoline with June loading purchased through a term contract, according to two sources who were familiar with the situation late last week. The sources also said that it was unclear if any seller had accepted the request.
LSEG Shiptracking data shows that Indonesia imported an average of 8.4 million barrels per month between January and April in this year.
(source: Reuters)