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MORNING BID EUROPE - So, China should consume less and the US more?
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. A miss in China's retail sales has been the biggest disappointment of the day for Asia. It shows how far China still needs to go to move away from export-driven economics to one that is driven by domestic demand. Beijing doesn't seem to want to change this. It's clear that consumers in China aren't buying. Donald Trump tells Americans that they will have to do without dolls and pencils while promoting trade policies which indirectly force Chinese consumers to purchase more. Treasury Secretary Bessent of the United States was on hand Sunday to warn potential trade partners that if they don't offer deals in "good faith", they will be sent a letter with a tariff rate. He implied that the U.S. has limited time to deal only with 18 of its top trading partners and that the rest may be swept away by the wind. The effective tariff on U.S. imported goods is still around 13%. This is the highest level since the 1930s, and equates to a tax increase of 1.2% GDP. Trump wants Walmart to absorb this tax in their margins, rather than pass it onto voting customers. This week, it will be interesting to hear what Target, Lowe's, and Home Depot say about this idea. It reminds me of the kind of price setting that would occur in a Soviet style command-control economic system. Trump is relying on the tariff revenue to help fund his tax-cut package. This package has been approved by a House of Representatives Committee and could be voted upon later this week. The bill could add up to $5 trillion in debt to the U.S. over the next decade. Moody's, which was among the other rating agencies to downgrade the U.S. last week, cited this as a reason. Since the financial crisis when the subprime scandal tarnished the reputation of certain agencies and funds abandoned mandates for triple-A, ratings have not been as important. The news has sparked a reaction among foreign investors who are already displeased with the unpredictable nature of U.S. policies. Wall Street futures have fallen by 1% to 2% today. The yields on ten-year bonds are up by around 5 basis points, and the dollar has fallen a little. Euro bulls are relieved that the unexpected victory of a pro-EU candidate at the Romanian election, as well as the victories by centrist parties from Poland and Portugal, will bring them relief. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact Final CPI data from the EU for April Bank of Dallas president Lorie Logan and Bank of Minneapolis president Neel Kahkari are among the Fed speakers.
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Goldman is cautious about oil prices, as the prospect of increased Iranian supply weighs.
Goldman Sachs stated on Sunday that it will maintain a cautious outlook for oil prices as the pressure of likely increased Iranian supply and higher OECD Commercial inventories will counteract support from stronger GDP growth globally. The bank stated that it would maintain its Brent/WTI oil forecasts at $60/56 ($4 less than the forwards), for the rest of 2025, and $56/52 dollars ($8 less than the forwards), in 2026. Goldman Sachs increased its Iran crude oil supply forecasts for the second half 2025-2026 from 3.6 million barrels to 3.6 millions barrels per day following media reports that progress was being made on a possible U.S. Iran nuclear deal. Donald Trump stated on Thursday that a nuclear agreement with Iran is very near. Goldman Sachs stated that if a U.S. Iran nuclear deal is achieved and implemented sustainably, Iran's crude oil supply may gradually increase by several hundreds of thousands barrels each day. The bank stated that "Incorporating lower taxes and higher GDP we are raising our Q4-Q4 global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2020 by 0.3mb/d (and 0.1mb/d) and respectively to 0.6mb/d (and 0.4mb/d)," the bank added. Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent will fall to $40 by the end of 2026 in a less extreme scenario, with both a global economic slowdown and a complete unwinding of OPEC's cuts. Brent crude futures traded at $65,24 per barrel at 0326 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI crude) was trading at $62,38 per barrel. (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru)
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London Copper eases after weak data on China demand
After data showing a slowdown in industrial output in China, concerns about the demand outlook for copper in China led to a slight decline in London's copper prices on Monday. As of 0355 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), was down 0.1% to $9,438 per metric tonne. China's industrial production and retail sales growth slowed down in April, according to official data released on Monday. A trade war was threatening to slow the momentum of the second largest economy in world. Official data revealed that the country's new house prices were flat for the second consecutive month in April compared to a month before. This extended the trend of no growth to almost two years, despite the efforts made by policymakers to stabilize the sector. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said in interviews broadcast on Sunday that Trump would impose tariffs on trading partners who do not negotiate "good faith" in deals at the same rate that he had threatened last month. BMI, an arm of Fitch Solutions, said that Trump's unpredictable policymaking poses a persistent risk to the metal price forecasts for the next few months. Other London metals include aluminium, which fell by 0.5% to $2468.5 per ton. Zinc slipped 0.3%, to $2684.5; lead rose 0.03%, to $2,000, and nickel, which dropped 0.3%, to $15,595. Tin rose 0.2% to $22,875. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most traded copper contract fell by 0.9%, to 77 630 yuan per ton ($10 758,93). SHFE aluminium fell by 0.1%, to 20,130 yuan per ton. Zinc dropped by 0.2%, to 22,480 yuan. Lead was down 0.4%, to 16,870, while nickel slid 0.5%, to 124100, and tin was down 0.3%, to 264760. ($1 = 7.2144 yuan) (Reporting and editing by Sumana Niandy)
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China's economic data is muted as iron ore prices fall
Iron ore futures fell on Monday due to tepid data from China, the top steel-making consumer. Also, there was uncertainty about demand in the near term. As of 0258 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 1.03% lower. It was 721.5 yuan (US$100) per metric ton. The benchmark June Iron Ore at the Singapore Exchange fell 0.56% to $99.5 per ton. Official data released on Monday showed that the growth of China's retail sales and industrial output slowed down in April. A trade war was threatening to slow this momentum. Official data released on Monday showed that property investment in China dropped 10.3% from the same period a year ago, after a 9.9% drop in the first quarter. Everbright Futures said that the hot metal production, which is typically used as a gauge of iron ore demand to determine supply, dropped 8,700 tons from one month to another to 2,45 million tons. The broker attributed this to blast furnaces being maintained. Steelhome data revealed that the total iron ore stocks across Chinese ports also increased, increasing by 0.26% per week to 137 millions tons on May 16. According to Mysteel, despite the two-week decline in production, it increased again on 15 May, as mills hoped for higher profits and more steel demand. Mysteel added that "the number of profitable blast furnace steel mills in China has continued to grow this week primarily due to the recovery in finished metal prices." Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, were down by 2.43% and 2.17 %, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have lost ground. Rebar dropped 1.03%, while hot-rolled coils weakened by 1.11%. Wire rod also fell 1.5%, and stainless steel slipped 0.19%. ($1 = 7.2153 Chinese yuan). (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala; Reporting by Michele Pek)
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China's April crude steel production misses expectations
China's crude output of steel in April fell 7% compared to March. This was contrary to analysts' expectations, who expected a rise due to healthy profits and robust sales. However, production remained high. National Bureau of Statistics data released on Monday showed that the world's biggest steel producer produced 86.02 millions metric tons of crude iron ore last month. This is flat with April of last year and down from March's 92.84million tons. Calculations based on data suggest that the April volume suggests an average daily production of 2.87 million tonnes, compared to 2.99 million tons in March, and 2.86 millions tons in April 2024. A survey by consultancy Mysteel revealed that 56% of steelmakers made a profit in the month of April, up from 53% in the previous month. Analysts say that a decent demand in China, coupled with robust exports, helped to support production last month. Analysts say that steel mills are eager to increase production after suffering severe losses during the last two years, when demand was hampered by a prolonged property slump. This will likely boost output in May. China produced 345.35 millions tons of crude iron and steel in the first four month of 2025. This is an increase of 0.4% on the previous year, even though Beijing announced plans to restructure its giant steel industry through output reductions. Beijing has not revealed essential details, including the timing and the scale of output. The state-backed China Iron and Steel Association said in a report on May 16, that steel output controls would be most visible in the second half, depending on local government enforcement.
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Gold prices rise as Trump's tariffs and a soft dollar spur demand for safe-haven assets
Gold prices rose on Monday, as a weaker dollar and renewed tensions in the trade wars - following U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent reaffirming President Donald Trump's threats to impose tariffs -- fueled demand for safe havens. As of 0215 GMT, spot gold rose 0.7% to $3,223.55 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 1.3% to $3228.70. The U.S. China trade agreement increased the risk appetite, which led to a drop of more than 2% in gold on Friday. Dollars are cheaper in foreign currency for holders of greenbacks. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst, said that the Moody's downgrade to the U.S. Credit Rating and the market's reaction of risk-off has brought some life back to the gold price. Moody's downgraded America's top sovereign rating on Friday by one notch, making it the last major agency to do so. The ratings agency cited concerns over the growing debt of the nation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told television interviewers on Sunday that Trump would impose tariffs on trade partners who do not negotiate "good faith" in deals at the same rate as he had threatened last month. Investors are grappling with the "strategic uncertainties" of the Republican President, as he tries to reshape the economic relationship in favor of the U.S. Bessent called it. In a low rate environment, gold, which is traditionally viewed as a safe haven during times of political and economic unrest, thrives. Data last week showed that U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected and that retail sales growth was slower. Waterer continued, "I believe we could be looking at either a rate cut in July or September. However, how Trump's negotiations with the trade bloc go in the interim may determine when the Fed lowers rates next." Spot silver rose 0.5%, to $32.42 per ounce. Platinum climbed 0.3% to $9990.71. Palladium rose 0.5%, to $965.23.
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London Copper rises as Dollar drifts lower
The copper price in London increased slightly on Monday, following a slight decline in the dollar. However, President Donald Trump's renewed threat of tariffs halted gains. As of 0211 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange was up by 0.2% to $9,465.5 per metric tonne. In early Asian trading, the U.S. Dollar pared its four-week gains as markets digested an unexpected downgrade in the credit rating of the U.S. Government and as lingering tensions over trade weighed on sentiment. The greenback price of commodities is cheaper for buyers who hold other currencies. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said on Sunday in interviews that Trump would impose tariffs on trading partners who do not negotiate "in good faith" when it comes to deals at the same rate that he had threatened last month. BMI, an arm of Fitch Solutions, said that Trump's unpredictable policymaking poses a persistent risk to the metal price forecasts for the next few months. Other London metals include aluminium, which fell by 0.2%, to $2476.5 per ton. Zinc slipped 0.04%, to $2690.5; lead rose 0.3%, to $2,000; and nickel, which dropped 0.3%, to $15,595. Tin increased 0.5% to $22,965. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most-traded contract for copper rose by 0.8%, to $10,770.53 per ton. The SHFE aluminium price was down by 0.2% at 20,110 yuan per ton. Zinc fell by 0.4% to 22,445 Yuan. Lead dropped by 0.3% to 16,885 Yuan. Nickel declined 0.8% to 123,750 Yuan. Tin eased up 0.2% to 264,860 Yuan. ($1 = 7.2132 yuan). (Reporting and editing by Sumana Niandy.
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Australia's New Hope drops after reducing coal production and sales forecasts
New Hope Corporation, an Australian coal miner, saw its shares fall 7% Monday after it lowered its production and sales estimates for the year, citing problems with rail capacity at New Acland in Queensland. By 0058 GMT, shares had fallen as much as 7,1% to the lowest level since 30 April. The S&P/ASX 200 benchmark, which fell 0.4%, was also down. New Hope expects the saleable coal production to range between 10,58 million metric tones and 11,57 million tones for the year ending July, as opposed to the previous forecast which was between 10,83 million to 11,87 million tones. The company now expects annual coal sales to range between 10,41 million metric tonnes and 11,45 million metric tonnes, which is about 2% less than its earlier forecast. New Hope reported that its New Acland Mine faced challenges with rail capacity during the quarter ending April. Rail network constraints caused a "significant build-up" of inventory at the mine’s train loading facility. The company also said that major rail outages were planned for June and in July. It added that it was working to secure additional rail paths and haulage capacities to deal with this issue. The miner anticipates that annual coal sales at the Queensland mine will be almost 10% lower than previously predicted levels. New Hope reported that it produced the same amount of coal as in the previous quarter (2.8 million metric tonnes), but the underlying EBITDA fell by 27% due to lower realized prices. Reporting by Nichiket in Bengaluru, editing by Eileen Soreng
China data shows that oil prices are little changed, as investors focus on Iran-US talks
The oil price was little changed Monday as investors awaited the outcome of the Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks and the key economic data from China in order to assess its commodity demand following the trade tensions between the United States and China.
Brent crude futures were down 5 cents at $65.36 per barrel as of 0022 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was up 3 cents at $62.52 per barrel. The front-month WTI contract expires Tuesday. The more active July contract dropped 4 cents to a barrel of $61.93.
Both contracts increased by more than 1% after the U.S., China and other major oil-consuming countries agreed to a 90 day pause in their trade war, during which time both sides would lower their trade tariffs.
China will release a number of data including industrial production, on Monday.
Analysts at ANZ said that "any sign of weakness" could deflate the optimism generated by the U.S. pause in tariffs on Chinese goods.
Oil prices were also supported by the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of Iran and U.S. nuclear negotiations.
Steve Witkoff, the U.S. Special Envoy to Iran, said that any agreement between the United States of America and Iran should include a commitment not to enrich uranium. This comment was quickly criticized by Tehran.
Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that there was a great deal of hope in those discussions.
"Realistically speaking, Iran is unlikely to agree to peacefully abandon its nuclear ambitions. It has always insisted that they are non-negotiable. "Iran is more likely to agree after the collapse its proxy states, which acted in the past as a buffer between it and Israel," said he, without naming the countries he was referring.
In Europe, tensions have risen between Estonia and Russia after Moscow detained an oil tanker owned by Greece on Sunday as it left a Baltic Sea port in Estonia.
Baker Hughes' weekly report said that producers in the U.S. cut the number operating oil rigs last week by one to 473, the lowest level since January. They continued to focus their efforts on cutting costs, which could slow the growth of U.S. crude oil production this year. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman; Florence Tan is the reporter)
(source: Reuters)