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IEA: Global trade war could be a headwind for the nascent AI industry

Laura Cozzi is the Director of Technology at the International Energy Agency. She said that an escalating tariff war in the global market could slow down the growth rate for the data centre industry.

In a report released on Thursday, the IEA stated that the U.S.A., China, and the European Union will account for 80% by 2030 of the growth forecast in the data centre market. This growth is expected to be dominated primarily by Artificial Intelligence.

Cozzi explained that the report's headwinds scenario "includes many of what we are currently seeing, such as slower economic growth and more tariffs across more countries. So yes, (the current tariff climate) is a situation in which AI will see a lower growth rate than we see in our baseline case," he said.

IEA data shows that the global electricity consumption of data centres will rise to 945 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2030, but it would drop to 670 tWh under the "headwind scenario".

According to IEA statistics, the United States is expected to be the leader in the development of data centres globally.

The U.S. electric utilities are receiving massive requests for additional capacity that exceeds their current generation capacity or peak demand. This has raised concerns that multiple tech companies have approached power utility providers to inflate the demand forecast.

Cozzi explained that the report is aimed at working with the tech industry and companies to understand the true queue for data centers, which will be crucial for AI to receive the electricity it requires.

Around 20% of data center projects could be affected by grid strain. The IEA report stated that the high demand for transmission lines, critical grid equipment, and generation equipment reflects this risk.

It said that some 50% of the data centres in development in the United States were in large clusters already in place, which could lead to local bottlenecks. Reporting by Forrest Crillin, Editing by Gareth Jones

(source: Reuters)