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Stocks rise, yields drop as U.S. data and tariffs are assessed

The global stock index rose on Friday, while U.S. Treasury Yields fell. A round of weak U.S. economic data and the recent tariff announcements sparked hopes that the Federal Reserve could be more aggressive about cutting interest rates.

Commerce Department stated

retail sales dropped

After an upwardly-revised 0.7% increase in Decembre, 0.9% was the largest decrease since March 2023. This is well below the 0.1% decline estimated by economists polled, which suggests that rising prices and tariff uncertainties may have led consumers to reduce spending.

The Federal Reserve also reported that factory output was up.

output dipped

After a rebound of 0.5% in December that was downwardly reviewed, the 0.1% figure for last month fell short. A sharp decline in motor vehicle production weighed.

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald

Trump directed

His economic team was tasked with creating plans for reciprocal duties on all countries that tax U.S. imported goods, increasing the risk of global trade war. However, he did not impose another round of tariffs.

Investors keep an eye on the news coming out of the Munich Security Conference where U.S. Vice-President JD

Vance said

Washington could use economic and military leverage to achieve a successful peace agreement in Ukraine. However, his spokesperson later denied that he had made any threats towards Moscow. Vance will also meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday.

The markets are hoping tariff headwinds will not be as severe as previously thought. However, the biggest element of this week's market sentiment is optimism about a possible Russia-Ukraine truce and how positive it could be for European growth.

Wall Street saw gains on U.S. stock markets, led by the energy sector, while consumer staples lagged behind. The benchmark S&P 500 Index climbed by about 0.1% to its intraday record of 6128.18, set on January 24,

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 25.27 points or 0.06% to 44,685.58, while the S&P 500 gained 4.58 points or 0.07% to 6,119.65, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 24.98 points or 0.13% to 19,970.63. The three major U.S. indices are on course for a weekly increase.

According to CME, the expectation of a Federal Reserve cut of at least 25, basis points in June has risen to 51.4% after the markets had priced in a change by 40.3% in the previous session.

FedWatch Tool

MSCI's global stock index rose by 2.27 points or 0.26 percent to 884.64, after edging up to an intraday record 885.66. The index is on track to post its fourth weekly increase in five weeks.

The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.29%, but it was still on course for its eighth consecutive week of gains. It has outperformed U.S. stock since the start of this year, though questions remain as to whether that can continue.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies) fell by 0.43%, falling to 106.63. Meanwhile, the euro rose by 0.42%, reaching $1.0509.

The dollar fell 0.42% against the Japanese yen to 152.15, while the pound rose 0.37% at $1.2612 versus the greenback.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 6.4 basis points, to 4.461%. However, it was still on course for a gain of a week.

Oil prices

The market was on course to end a three-week decline streak, erasing previous gains.

U.S. crude dropped 0.38%, to $71.02 per barrel. Brent was down to $74.96 a barrel on the same day.

(source: Reuters)