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Oil prices fluctuate as markets wait for clarity on Trump's tariffs against Canada and Mexico

The oil prices were not much different on Thursday, as the markets prepared for the threat of tariffs from U.S. president Donald Trump against Mexico and Canada, two of United States' largest crude oil suppliers. They also awaited a OPEC+ meeting.

Brent crude futures fell 7 cents or 0.1% to $76.51 per barrel at 0411 GMT. U.S. Crude Futures were barely changed, with a 2 cent increase, or 0.03% to $72.64. On Wednesday, U.S. Crude Futures settled at the lowest price of this year.

Karoline Lavitt, White House spokesperson, told reporters Tuesday that Trump will still follow through on his promise on Saturday to impose tariffs against Canada and Mexico.

Howard Lutnick is Trump's nominee for the Commerce Department. He said that Canada and Mexico could avoid tariffs by closing their borders quickly to fentanyl. Lutnick also promised to slow China's artificial intelligence advancement.

The U.S. crude oil stocks rose 3.46 million barrels during the week. This is in line with the analysts' estimates of a 3.19 million-barrel rise, due to the winter storms which swept across the country.

After the recent U.S. sanctions, traders and calculations show that crude oil exports in Russia's west ports are expected to drop by 8% compared to the January plan, as Moscow increases refining.

Investors also look forward to a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies scheduled for February 3.

Kazakhstan announced on Wednesday that the OPEC+ group, which includes major oil producers, will discuss Trump's attempts to increase U.S. production of oil and adopt a common stance. Russia is also a part of the OPEC+.

Trump publicly called for OPEC, and its leader, Saudi Arabia to lower oil price, saying that this would put an end to the conflict in Ukraine. He also has a plan to maximize the U.S. production of oil and gas, which is already the largest in the world.

Analysts believe that a price battle between the U.S., OPEC+ and other countries is unlikely because it could hurt both.

In a recent note, analysts at BMI (a division of Fitch Group) said that a price war would see OPEC+ producers increase their output in order to reduce prices and push shale oil production down.

According to them, Brent crude oil could fall below $50 because OPEC+ has the capacity to deploy 5 million barrels per day of spare oil. This would lead to a drop in U.S. shale production and prices. Reporting by Arathy Golubkova and Katya Somasekhar, both in Houston; editing by Sonali and Kim Coghill.

(source: Reuters)