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China, UAE might cut Iran condensate imports if Trump tightens curbs, FGE states

Iran's condensate exports to China and the United Arab Emirates will most likely decrease if U.S. Presidentelect Donald Trump tightens up sanctions on Tehran, but supply to Venezuela would continue, analysts at consultancy FGE said.

Balancing out the loss in Iranian supply, more condensate will be produced from projects in Qatar and Saudi Arabia from 2026, they added.

Condensate, an ultra light oil, is usually processed at splitters to produce mainly petrochemical feedstock naphtha or used as a diluent for heavy crude such as those from Venezuela.

Iran presently exports 100,000-150,000 barrels daily (bpd). of condensate which generally goes to China, Venezuela and the. United Arab Emirates, according to FGE.

If Trump tightens up sanctions on Iran, its condensate exports. to UAE and China will likely fall or stop entirely as there. are less buyers for the ultra light oil than for Iranian crude,. Iman Nasseri, a handling director at FGE, told the Condensate &&. Naphtha Online forum.

However, Iranian condensate exports to Venezuela, at around. 30,000 bpd, would continue, he added.

The Middle East produces around 2.5 million bpd of. condensate, accounting for about 40% of worldwide supply, with more. production to come from gas fields in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Qatar's North Field Expansion job, expected to begin. from the first quarter of 2026, will add 400,000 bpd condensate. capability though 2030, stated FGE analyst Samuel Ho.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is expected to release the Phase 1 of. its Jafurah Basin advancement by 2026 with possibly 100,000. bpd of condensate production capability, and Stage 2 sometime in. 2028 with potentially over 200,000 bpd of condensate production. capability, he added.

More condensate supply is expected to come from Asia,. Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as Africa, Ho stated, as nations. increase natural gas production for energy transition.

(source: Reuters)