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Japan's gas imports seen increasing through August as refinery outages cut output

Japan's gasoline imports are anticipated to remain elevated through August after increasing 20% in June as interruptions at its refineries are reducing output during peak summertime need season, traders and experts stated.

Import demand from Japan will further tighten products in Asia and support refiners' gas margins which have rebounded to two-month highs earlier in July. << GL92-SIN-CRK > Japan's gasoline imports in June increased to 476,630 kilolitres, up 20.4% from the previous month, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Market (METI) showed on Wednesday.

This is comparable to 99,930 barrels per day, up 24.5% from May, according to Reuters estimation. Japan's fuel imports averaged at 55,168 bpd in 2023, according to Reuters estimations based on METI data.

We anticipate Japan to import over 120,000-130,000 barrels per day of gasoline in July and August. This is mainly driven by a. combination of prepared maintenance and current outages, Wood. Mackenzie analyst Priti Mehta said.

A Singapore-based trader stated greater imports from Japan due. to unexpected failures will trigger a decline in Asia's total. gas supply.

Cosmo Energy Holdings said it plans to increase. gas imports for July-August from the exact same period last year. however it didn't provide figures.

Rystad analyst Rohit Raveendran said the considerable increase in. imports is driven by a forecasted drop in refinery runs to about. 1.9 million bpd in June, which could fall even more to 1.7 million. bpd in the coming months due to unplanned shutdowns and ongoing. maintenance.

Japan's typical weekly refinery utilisation rate was up to. 63.6% in the week to July 27 from 66.2% in the previous week, information. from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) revealed.

PAJ stated the imports could be increasing due to maintenances and. failures at plants owned by top oil refiner Eneos Holdings. and Cosmo Oil during peak summer season demand.

Eneos decreased to comment.

While there might be an increase in gas demand in a. particular summer month, overall intake is expected to. decline by 2-3% yearly through the fiscal year of 2028, PAJ. stated, mentioning a recent METI's projection.

According to METI prediction released in April, gasoline. demand is expected to continue falling due to a shift to next-. generation cars such as hybrid vehicles and enhanced fuel. effectiveness of gas automobiles.

(source: Reuters)