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China increased Q1 crude oil storage as imports flatlined: Russell

China increased the pace at which it included crude to stocks in March as the world's most significant oil importer purchased record imports from Westernsanctioned Russia.

A total of 790,000 barrels per day (bpd) were added to China's tactical or business stockpiles in March, up from the 570,000 bpd over the first two months of 2024, according to computations based on official information.

Over the first quarter as an entire, China enhanced stocks by 670,000 bpd, a figure that to some level weakens the prevailing market view that China's oil need is strong.

This is especially the case because China's crude imports were in fact slightly weaker in the first quarter of this year at 11.02 million bpd, below 11.06 million bpd in the exact same period in 2023.

China does not disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of industrial and strategic stockpiles, but a quote can be made by deducting the quantity of crude processed from the total of crude available from imports and domestic output.

The total crude readily available to refiners in March was 15.88 million bpd, including imports of 11.55 million bpd and domestic output of 4.33 million bpd.

The volume of crude processed by refiners was 15.09 million bpd, leaving a surplus of 790,000 bpd to be contributed to storage tanks.

For the very first quarter, the total crude readily available was 15.31 million bpd, while refinery throughput was 14.64 million bpd, leaving a surplus of 670,000 bpd.

The picture that emerges from the first quarter is that China's demand for imported crude oil was essentially flat, and that refiners are still improving stockpiles even as rates start to increase.

It deserves noting that the crude that landed in China in March was most likely organized in a window starting from late December through to early February, a time when crude costs were still lower than their 2023 peaks and had yet to start their recent rally.

Benchmark Brent futures dropped to $72.29 a barrel on Dec. 13, the lowest considering that June, having actually been on a downward pattern because the 2023 peak of $97.06, reached on Sept. 27.

Given that the December low, Brent initially stayed in a broad range around $75-$ 85 a barrel, before breaking greater from mid-March to reach a 2024 peak of $92.18 on April 12, amid ongoing concern about an escalation of tensions in Middle East occurring from the conflict in between Israel and Hamas.

Brent closed at $87.42 a barrel on Wednesday, after financial data from China showed the economy grew more than anticipated in the very first quarter but other signs, such as residential or commercial property financial investment, retail sales and industrial output stayed weak.

The question for the marketplace is whether China's economy is on the road to recovery, and therefore oil need will improve in coming quarters.

And even if unrefined need does speed up, will China purchase more from the seaborne market despite the fact that prices have actually risen, or Will it turn to the stockpiles it has developed in the quarter.

RUSSIAN OIL

While China's refiners don't divulge what grade or origin of crude is being contributed to inventories, it's most likely that Russian oil is among the primary types being stored.

China's imports from Russia in March were 1.51 million bpd from the seaborne market and 890,000 bpd via pipeline, providing a. combined overall of 2.4 million bpd, according to date compiled by. LSEG Oil Research.

This was up from 2.19 million bpd in February and was the. highest level of imports from Russia given that China ramped up. purchases in the wake of Moscow's February 2022 invasion of. Ukraine, which led discount rates on Russian crude as Western countries. imposed sanctions.

In contrast to higher arrivals from Russia, China's imports. from its former leading supplier Saudi Arabia dropped to 1.59. million bpd in March, the lowest since December, according to. LSEG.

The relocate to Russian crude supports the view that China's. refiners are increasing imports of more affordable grades, which also. include oil from Iran and Venezuela.

The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)