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India amasses record seasonal coal stocks as mine output surges: Kemp

India's coalfired generators have managed to collect record stocks of fuel for the end of February, even as they produce record quantities of electrical power to cover burgeoning demand and a dry spell that has struck hydropower.

The fuel supply photo has actually been changed in less than two years from scarcity to abundance as a result of a big increase in domestic production and prioritisation of coal motions to power stations across the rail network.

Coal-fired generators produced a record 112 billion kilowatt-hours in January 2024 up from 91 billion kWh in January 2022, Ministry of Power information show.

Nevertheless, power plant inventories have actually continued to increase as the amount of fuel getting here has outstripped combustion.

Generators had 44 million tonnes of fuel on hand on February 26 up from 26 million tonnes at the end of February 2022.

Stocks sufficed to fulfill more than 15 days of the minimum requirement from under 10 days at the very same time in 2022.

Generators have been able to accumulate fuel despite running uncommonly hard in the autumn to compensate for the lack of hydropower after a weak monsoon in 2023.

Chartbook: India coal production and stocks

Fuel security has actually been boosted by a massive boost in the volume of coal produced from the country's own mines.

Domestic production struck a seasonal record 100 million tonnes in January 2024 up from 80 million tonnes in January 2022, according to the Ministry of Coal.

Mines despatched an extra 12 million tonnes in January 2024 compared to January 2022 and most of the extra was sent to generators (+9 million) instead of other users (+3 million).

Mines loaded approximately 315 unit trains or rakes each day in January 2024 up from 285 daily in January 2022, Ministry of Coal information show.

Nearly all the additional unit trains were despatched to generators instead of other users under federal government orders to prioritise electrical energy materials.

The surge in domestic production has trimmed dependence on imports of thermal coal.

Total imports of non-coking coal were 124 million tonnes between April and December 2023 below 127 million tonnes in the very same period a year earlier.

Imports accounted for 7.4% of all coal received by generators in the first 8 months of fiscal 2024 down from 7.7% in the same period of financial 2023.

In the short-term, the enormous boost in stocks ought to avert prevalent power cuts throughout the pre-monsoon ( March-May) and post-monsoon (September-October) months this year.

In the long term, India's importers, miners and traders are all very bullish about the outlook as soaring electrical power need motivates the federal government to adopt an all-of-the-above. method to fossil and renewable generation.

Related columns:

- India's coal sector sees substantial leaps in output and need. ( February 28, 2024)

- India rebuilds coal stocks to make sure electric dependability. ( January 31, 2024)

- India turns to coal as hydro generation falls (November. 30, 2023)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)