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India races to protect its economy from the oil shock caused by the war in Iran and capital stress

India's macroeconomic prospects have been clouded by a sustained rise in energy prices caused by the Iran 'war'. This has prompted policymakers to take crisis-era measures to shield Asia's third largest economy from external headwinds.

India's external sector is being impacted by the most severe disruption in global energy supply in history that began in late February. This has made imports more expensive and kept overseas investors away.

Economists have revised down their growth projections, raised inflation projections and forecast persistent pressure on rupee as India faces a third year in a row of a deficit balance of payments.

India's reliance on imported oil makes it particularly vulnerable to the Iran crisis. About 90% of India's?oil and 50% of its gas needs are imported. V. Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic advisor, said that India's current account must be managed credibly and that it needs to be financed. It also has to prevent further currency depreciation.

India's current-account deficit is expected to increase to 2.5% in fiscal year 2027, from 0.9% the year before.

A record pace of outflows of foreign portfolios has put pressure on India's capital account. Since the start of the war, foreign investors have pulled more than $20 billion out of Indian stocks. Year-to-date, outflows are exceeding last year's records. The rupee, which reflects the strain on both sides, has fallen by more than 5% in the past few weeks since the war with Iran began. It is now the worst performing Asian currency for 2026.

To manage the strain on the economy, policymakers are focusing their attention on crisis-era strategies. This includes urging citizens to reduce consumption that uses up foreign currency. On Sunday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged the government to take a number of measures in order to conserve foreign currency reserves. Late on Tuesday night, the central government raised tariffs on imports of precious metals to reduce demand and cushion the rupee.

The central bank has taken rare regulatory measures to support the currency, including selling down its dollar reserves.

The emphasis on the "external" sector is reminiscent of previous episodes, such as the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022. However, it comes at a time when the Indian economy has a better start. Before the war, inflation was low and growth was strong.

(source: Reuters)