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Gold to shine again in 2019 despite highest gain since 1979
The gold price has doubled in the past two years, making it the biggest increase since the oil crisis of 1979. This performance could have been interpreted as a forecast for a major correction. Analysts at JP Morgan and Bank of America, as well as Metals Focus, now expect 'bullion to reach $5,000 per troy-ounce by 2026. Spot gold prices hit a record of $4,381 per ounce in October. They had never reached $3,000 prior to March. This was due to demand from central banks and investors, including stablecoin issuer Tether as well as corporate treasurers. BofA's Michael Widmer, a strategist, said that the expectation of future gains or portfolio diversification is driving the buying. This is due to the U.S. budget deficit, the efforts to reduce the U.S. Current Account deficit, and the weak dollar policy. Philip Newman said that Metals Focus's managing director, Philip Newman, believes the support for metals is due to concerns about U.S. Federal Reserve Independence, tariff disputes, and geopolitics, including war in Ukraine, and Russia’s interaction with NATO nations in Europe. CENTRAL BANKS ANCHOR CYCLE Analysts said that central banks diversifying their reserves away from dollar-denominated investments for a fifth consecutive year should provide a solid foundation for gold by 2026, as they will buy at a time when investors are stretched and money is rotating, while prices are falling. Gregory Shearer is the head of JP Morgan's base and precious metals strategies. He said, "The price level has been supported higher than it was when you first started due to central bank demand." "And then, all of a suddenly, we're above $4,000, in a much more cleaner environment, from a position perspective, which allows the cycle to go forward," he explained, referring to signals that investors use to extend positions again after derisking. Analysts at JP Morgan estimate that quarterly central bank demand and investment of 350 metric tonnes is required for prices to remain flat. This buying is expected to be 585 tons on average per quarter by 2026. JP Morgan Shearer stated that the share of gold in total assets managed by investors has risen from 1.5% to 2.8%, compared with levels before 2022. She added that this is not a ceiling, but rather a high level. Morgan Stanley predicts that gold will be $4,500 an ounce by the middle of 2026. JP Morgan anticipates prices to average above $4,600 per ounce in Q2 and $5,000 in Q4. Metals Focus expects gold to reach $5,000 by the end of 2026. Hedging Equity Bets BIS, the global central bank umbrella group, said that gold and stock prices rising in tandem is a phenomenon seen for at least half a decade. This raises questions about potential bubbles in both. Gold analysts say that part of the gold purchases this year were a hedge to protect against sharp corrections on equity markets. This was fuelled by tensions among historic allies due to tariffs, trade issues and the war in Ukraine. Gold is still at risk, since sharp corrections on the equity market often lead to the sale of safe haven assets. Nicky Shiels is the head of metals at MKS PAMP. He predicts that prices will average $4,500 by 2026. Gold, according to Shiels, will be "a multi-year, secular portfolio asset, rather than a hedge". Analysts expect the gold rally to be less dramatic by 2026. Macquarie's economists said that the world had stabilised. They predicted a recovery in global growth and a tapering of central bank easing. Macquarie expects gold prices to average $4,225 by 2026, a little lower than Wednesday's spot price of $4 317. In the meantime, central bank purchases of?gold ETFs and inflows to them are expected to slow next year. The jewellery market, which dropped 23% in third quarter is under pressure, and retail demand for coins and bars can only partially compensate for this. Amy Gower is a commodities strategist with Morgan Stanley. She said that in October, the queues of retail clients?seen by Morgan Stanley in Australia and Europe?may have represented a shift from jewellery to investments. This trend may continue into next year. Newman, at Metals Focus, says that the demand for coins and bars did not show much profit-taking following October. He adds: "If prices start to rise again, you may well be able to buy into this rally." The supply response is muted, with only a 6% increase in recycling. Macquarie says total gold demand will rise by 11% to 5,150 tonnes this year, then fall to 4,815 tons in 2026. CRYPTO MEETS SILVER Fed easing has brought in a new institutional investor for gold, in the form Tether. Tether is the issuer of the largest stablecoin in the world. The third quarter reports from Tether show that it bought 26 tons of gold, which is five times the amount reported by China's central banks. Morgan Stanley's Gower stated that the issue is not one to be overlooked, but added it was unclear whether other firms would adopt a similar approach because of U.S. The GENIUS Act doesn't list gold as a stablecoin reserve asset. India has allowed pension funds to purchase gold and silver ETFs. Metals Focus reported that China allowed insurance funds to purchase gold in February. However, these purchases were limited due to the bullion's rise.
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Silver reaches $65 for the first time, gold increases as US unemployment rates rise
Silver surged to new record highs of $65 per ounce on Wednesday. Gold also advanced as softer than expected U.S. job data indicated a 'cooling labour market. This fueled bets for more interest rate reductions next year. Spot silver rose 3.4% to $65.94 per ounce, after reaching an all-time record of $66.52 in the previous session. The rally was driven by a tight supply, strong demand from industry and increasing speculative interests. Independent analyst Ross Norman said, "Silver is a popular topic of discussion in the options market. I believe it's because the outlook for demand?remains positive." It's an important mineral. It is part of the "green energy" program. The supply is tight. In that sense, speculators swim with the tide." Gold prices also firmed. Spot gold rose 0.3% by 1154 GMT to $4317.65 per ounce, while U.S. futures gold gained?0.4% at $4347.40. The price of silver has increased 128% and the price of gold is up 65% for the year. Ricardo Evangelista, ActivTrades analyst, says that gold is supported by dovish Federal Reserve expectation, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. The U.S. unemployment rates rose in November to 4.6%, their highest level since September 20,21, despite the 64,000 new jobs created by nonfarm payrolls. The markets are awaiting the release of two important U.S. inflation data this week: Consumer Price Index on Thursday, and Personal Consumption expenditures on Friday. Last week, the Federal Reserve?delivered their third and final quarter point rate cut for the year. Chair Jerome Powell was viewed as being less hawkish that expected. Traders have priced in two 25 basis-point rate cuts for 2026. Gold and other non-yielding investments do well in environments with low interest rates. Geopolitically, U.S. president Donald Trump ordered a "blockade", on Tuesday, of all sanctioned tankers entering or leaving Venezuela. Platinum rose 3.8% to $1,920.71 - its highest level in over '17 years - while palladium increased 1.9% to $1634.29 a new two month high. The entire white metals sector is booming in tandem, and the EU's decision to lift the ban on combustion engines by 2035 is giving this sector a boost," Norman said.
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Copper prices rise on fears of mine shortages
Copper prices increased on Wednesday as persistent fears about possible shortages prompted speculators to buy. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange gained?1.2%, to $11,721.50 per metric ton at 1110 GMT after losing 0.5% on Tuesday. LME copper prices have risen by 33% in the past year, and in recent weeks they've reached record highs. This is largely due to fears that mine disruptions will lead to a deficit in supply next year. Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, said that the copper market is still fundamentally tight. The risks are further disruptions of mines, and stronger investment in AI and energy transition sectors. Manthey?added that ING expects the average price of copper in 2026 to be $11,500, with a peak close to $12,000 in second quarter. Investors also digested?Tuesday’s mixed U.S. Labour Market data. It showed a rebound in employment growth, along with elevated unemployment for November. The metals market was also supported by higher oil prices, after U.S. president Donald Trump ordered the blockade on sanctioned oil tanks entering and leaving Venezuela. Higher oil prices will increase the cost of mining and metals. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most-traded copper contract closed the daytime trading session up 0.5% to 92,720 Yuan ($13,162.04) per ton. LME aluminium rose 0.6% to $2.893.50 per ton following confirmation on Tuesday that the Mozal Smelter in Mozambique would be closed, reducing global supplies for next year. Nickel rose 0.9% at $14,395 per ton. Zinc was up by 0.4% at $3,053, while lead was up by 0.7% to $1,956. Tin rose 2.3% to $40,395.
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The EU parliament has approved the phase-out of Russian gas imports
The European Parliament approved Wednesday the plan to phase out Russian imports of gas by the end of 2027. This is the last legal hurdle that needs to be cleared before the ban can become law. The EU has agreed to legislation that will cut ties with Russia, Europe's former largest gas supplier. They had vowed to do this after Moscow's full-scale invasion in Ukraine 2022. The vote was 500 for, 120 against, and 32 abstained. The EU Ministers will still need to formally?approve the ban, which is expected in early?2019. Officials expect that countries will?approve the deal without any changes. The law was designed to be approved with a strengthened majority, which would allow it to overcome the opposition of Hungary and Slovakia who wish to maintain close ties with Moscow. According to the agreement, EU will stop Russian liquefied gas imports before the end of 2026. Pipeline gas will be stopped by the end of September 2027. In October, Russia was responsible for only 12% of EU?gas?imports. This is down from 45% in 2012, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Hungary, France and Belgium remain among the few countries that still receive gas supplies. The European Commission announced that it would also introduce legislation to phase out Russian crude oil imports in 2026. (Reporting and editing by Charlotte Van Campennhout, Louise Heavens and Kate Abnett)
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Spot drops sharply as German wind output surges
European power prices dropped sharply on the day of Wednesday due to expectations that wind generation in Germany would increase and the warmer weather would reduce demand. LSEG data shows that the French baseload for day-ahead was 39.5 euros (46.28 dollars) per megawatt 'hour at?1050 GMT. This is 54% lower than its close. The German equivalent price dropped 28% to 77.5 Euros/MWh. LSEG data shows that the German wind output will more than double on Thursday to 31.4 Gigawatts from the 12.1 GW forecasted?on?Wednesday. French nuclear capacity remains at 84%. German?power consumption will drop by 400 MW, to 61.7 GW - in the same time period. In France, it is expected to fall by 2 GW, to 58.5 GW. The temperature is expected to increase by 2-2.3 degrees Celsius across both countries. The German baseload?years ahead gained 0.9% to 85.4 euros/MWh. The French position for the same year-ahead period was 0.9% higher, at 50.3 Euros/MWh. The oil, gas and Carbon industries have seen a stronger momentum. The benchmark contract for the European carbon market 2026 increased by 0.8% to 88.07 Euros per metric ton. German transmission system operators released a revised plan for the development of electricity networks up to 2045. This plan could reduce infrastructure costs by 80 billion euro compared to a plan from 2023. The'reporters' cited lower demand estimates, an optimization of measures, including the grouping or deletion of certain 'line projects, as well as assigning a larger role to "grid batteries". European Energy Exchange (EEX), launched on December 12, saw its first trades for the newly launched Wind-Hydro-Solar 'Guarantees Of Origin Futures. The BDEW group of Germany published preliminary data for the year showing that gas consumption increased by 3.6% and power production rose by 0.8%. ($1 = 0.8535 euro) (Reporting and editing by Vera Eckert)
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Silver reaches $65 for the first time, gold increases as US unemployment rates rise
Silver has risen to new record highs of $65 per ounce on Wednesday. Gold also advanced as softer than expected U.S. job data indicated a 'cooling labour market. This led to bets that interest rates will continue to fall next year. Spot silver rose 3.3% to $65.91 per ounce, after reaching an all-time record of $66.52 in the previous session. The rally was driven by tight supplies, strong industrial demand, and increasing speculative interests. Independent analyst Ross Norman said, "Silver is a popular topic of discussion on the options markets. I believe it's because there are some very clear views that demand remains a positive outlook." It's an important mineral. It is a vital part of the green power program. It's tight, in the sense that supply dynamics is tight. Speculators are therefore swimming with the current. Spot gold prices rose 0.4% by 1015 GMT to $4,318.99 per ounce, while U.S. Gold Futures also gained 0.4%, reaching $4,348.10. The price of silver has increased by 128% and the price of gold is up 65% for the year. Ricardo Evangelista, ActivTrades analyst, says that gold continues to be supported due to dovish Federal Reserve expectation, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. The U.S. unemployment rates rose in November to 4.6%, their highest level since September 20,21, despite the 64,000 new jobs created by nonfarm payrolls. The markets are awaiting important U.S. inflation data this week. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is due on Thursday, and Personal Consumption Spending data is due on Friday. Last week, the Federal Reserve announced its 'third and final quarter point rate cut for the year. Chair Jerome Powell was viewed as being 'less hawkish than anticipated. Traders have priced in two 25 basis-point rate cuts for 2026. Gold and other non-yielding investments do well when interest rates are low. Geopolitically, U.S. president Donald Trump ordered Tuesday a "blockade",?of all sanctioned tankers entering or leaving Venezuela. Platinum was up 4.2%, at $1,927.35, the highest level in over 17 years, and palladium gained 2.2%, to $1,638.96. This is a new two-month high. "The whole white metals sector is surging at the same time, and the EU's decision to lift the ban on combustion engines in 2035 is giving this sector a boost," Norman said.
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EU prohibits UK exemption from border carbon levy until market linkages
The climate chief of the EU said that Britain will not be exempted from paying its CO2 emissions tax on imported goods unless both sides connect their carbon markets. British industries had hoped for a temporary exemption to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), while carbon market linkage talks are underway. The UK government said that the EU levies will cost their?industry? 800 million pounds per year. Wopke H. Hoekstra, EU Climate Commissioner said that Britain would not be exempt from the border carbon levy until it's carbon market is linked with?the EU - a.process officials estimate could take longer than a year. He said: "We are not exempting anybody, but when we fully link those two, there is a good chance that an exemption will occur at that time." The UK Cabinet Office didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Hoekstra stated that Brussels knew the UK government would have "... liked a different set of events". Hoekstra added that the EU and the UK would work together to connect the carbon markets. From January, the EU CBAM is going to start charging importers of steel and cement. But companies will have to wait until September 2027 to purchase CBAM certificates for their 2026 emissions, and then submit them to EU. (Reporting and editing by Louise Breusch Rasmussen, Louise Heavens, and Susanna Twidale)
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Poll by aid agencies names Sudan as the most neglected crisis in 2025
The world is blind to the horrors of Sudan DRC is hellscape for women Twelve crises that are often overlooked by the public Emma Batha Experts warn that aid operations are in danger of collapsing and two cities are on the brink of famine. Abdurahman Sharif, director of Save the Children's humanitarian department, said that the Sudan crisis should dominate the front pages of the newspaper every day. "Children live a nightmare in plain view, but the world continues to look away shamefully." The Democratic Republic of Congo, widely regarded as the deadliest war since World War Two is ranked second. Sharif stated that although Sudan has been covered by the media, the true magnitude of the disaster is "largely out-of-sight and out-of mind". Sudan is the world's largest humanitarian crisis according to the United Nations, but an appeal for $4.16 billion has only been funded by a third. Respondents to the poll highlighted several emergencies that were overlooked, such as Myanmar, Afghanistan and Somalia in Africa, or Mozambique. Many agencies claimed they were hesitant to focus on just one crisis during a time when the United States, and other Western donors, cut aid in spite of the soaring needs for humanitarian assistance. Oxfam's human rights director Marta Valdes Garcia said: "It seems as though the world has turned its back on humanity." 'INDICTMENT of Humanity' Conflict between the Sudanese Army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces erupted in April 2023 as a result of a power battle. This conflict has caused the largest displacement crisis on earth, with 12 million people forced to flee their homes. Aid groups have cited horrifying human rights violations including child abuse, rape, and conscription. Moussa Snagara, World Vision's director of humanitarian operations, said: "What's being done to Sudanese children is unconscionable. It's happening on a large scale and appears to be with impunity." 21 million people are suffering from acute hunger, as hospitals and schools have been destroyed or taken over. The U.N. World Food Programme has warned that it will be forced to reduce rations if additional funding is not provided. Aid agencies say that violence, blockades and bureaucratic barriers make it difficult to reach civilians living in conflict zones. Mamadou Dian Balde, regional director of the U.N. Refugee Agency said: "What we see in Sudan is an indictment against humanity." "If the world doesn't urgently step in - diplomatically and financially, as well as morally – an already disastrous situation will worsen, with millions of Sudanese paying the price." 'BREAKING POINT' The survey also highlighted South Sudan and Chad as two countries that host large numbers of Sudanese refugee. Charlotte Slente is the head of the Danish Refugee Council. She said that the climate crisis was pushing Chad, a country with deep poverty, hunger, and other problems, "to the breaking point." "Chad's generosity towards refugees is a good lesson for the wealthiest nations in the world." Slente stated that the global moral failure is a response to this generosity. Oxfam reported that donors are pulling out of South Sudan, forcing aid agencies, including Oxfam, to reduce crucial assistance for millions. 'HELLSCAPE for WOMEN' Alarm was raised by several organizations over the escalating conflict within DRC. Around 7 million people have been displaced, and 27 millions are hungry in this vast country rich in natural resources. Rape has been a weapon of warfare for decades. Patrick Watt, Christian Aid's Chief Executive Officer, said: "This is the greatest humanitarian crisis that the world hasn't talked about." He said that during a recent trip, the villagers had told him about how armed groups stole livestock, burned down homes, recruited young boys to fight, and subjected girls and women to horrific sexual violence. M23 rebels, backed by Rwanda, seized eastern Congo in an attempt to overthrow the Kinshasa government. Fighting continues despite the U.S. led peace agreement signed by DRC and Rwanda this month. The conflict in the DRC has intensified due to a soaring demand for minerals for smartphones, clean energy technologies and other products. Watt stated that the people are now facing an economic disaster as a result of Kinshasa’s blockade against M23-controlled zones and aid cuts which have hollowed out humanitarian response. ActionAid called the violence "a hellscape for women" while the Norwegian Refugee Council said Congo was "a case of global neglect". Jan Egeland, Secretary General of the NRC, said: "This is not an accident. It is a decision." Tom Fletcher, the U.N. chief of aid, has named Myanmar as one of the most neglected crises. He described it as "a billion dollar emergency running on fumes." A $1.1 billion fund for the Southeast Asian country has only been funded 17% despite the mass displacements, increasing hunger and rampant violent. Fletcher claimed that the world has turned its back on the "grinding crises" beneath the massive March earthquake in Myanmar.
The UK will join the Erasmus+ Student Exchange Scheme
The UK and EU agreed to allow UK students join the popular Erasmus+ student exchange programme on Wednesday, a symbolic but small sign of improved relations after Brexit.
The UK contribution to the academic year '2027/28' will be 570 millions pounds ($760million), according to the British government. They also said that this deal includes a 30% discount on the default terms of the current trade agreement with the EU.
The statement stated that the two sides had also agreed to "start negotiations" on integration of electricity markets, and set a deadline for finalising a food and drink trade agreement and linking carbon markets next year.
Since he was first elected, Prime Minister Keir Starmer sought to strengthen ties with the EU. In May, the two sides agreed on the most significant reset of defence and trading ties since 2020 when the UK will leave the EU.
Starmer has tried to differentiate his approach from previous Conservative governments' often tense relationships with the EU during Brexit negotiations.
Nick Thomas-Symonds, Minister for EU Relations, said that the Erasmus+ agreement was "a big win" for our youth.
He said: "We have focused on public priorities and secured an agreement that puts 'opportunity first.
The government has said that more than 100,000 people could benefit in the UK in the first year.
It has been a long-standing EU demand that the UK return to the Erasmus+ programme, which allows EU students to study abroad for up to one year in another EU country.
The UK had previously withdrawn from the programme after Brexit. Reporting by Catarina demony and Muvija M. Editing by Paul Sandle.
(source: Reuters)