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Waller calms bond markets as Asian stocks climb ahead of US employment data
Asian shares rose Friday, as investors welcomed a "global rally" before the release of crucial U.S. employment data. Bonds also found relief after a Federal Reserve official calmed fears about rate hikes and drove down the dollar. The retreat of the dollar 'turbocharged' a rally for the yen. It has gained 2.6% in this week to trade at 155.7 per dollar. This puts it within striking range of the 155.2 mark reached by Tokyo and Washington after their joint intervention in late July. Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve Governor, said in remarks at a NEXT Newsmaker Event that recent data showed some signs of deflation. If future reports confirmed this trend, he'd prefer to hold rates steady during the policy meeting next month. Futures markets lowered the probability of a rate increase this month from 63% to 50% just a day earlier. These expectations had risen in recent sessions, as a global bond crisis pushed long-dated yields up to multi-year levels, fueled by fears over persistent inflation, soaring government debt, and geopolitical tensions. Analysts at JPMorgan wrote in a report that Waller is fighting back against Warsh's argument that there are few signs that inflation is underlying has decreased. "We are confident that Chair Warsh can deliver a raise if he advocates it. Without his advocacy, Governor Waller’s speech confirms that we believe the bar is high for data to convince the majority of data-dependent people to hike this coming month. The MSCI broadest index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, which tracks Wall Street's gains, rose 1% in Asia. However, this was not enough to offset the earlier losses, as the index fell 0.4% last week. The Nikkei 225 index of Japan gained 0.8%, but fell 2.7% in the past week. Chinese blue-chips rose 1%, and South Korea's KOSPI rose 1.1%. The Wall Street and EURO STOXX futures were both flat, as traders awaited the U.S. August payrolls report due later that day. The forecasts predict a gain of 56,000 new jobs following a shocking drop of 23,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%. The U.S. data released overnight revealed that the service sector's activity picked up last month, with prices paid reaching a record high. Fed's "Beige Book", a survey of economic activity, also indicated that it had increased in recent weeks. BONDS GET ?SOME RELIEF The yield curve rose on the back of fading concerns about imminent rate hikes. Treasuries rallied after Waller's dovish remarks. The yield on two-year Treasury bonds held steady at 4.3381% after dropping 5 basis points over night to move away a peak of 4.4102% that was reached 20 months ago. The 10-year yield was unchanged at 4.7620% after dropping 3 basis points over night, and the 30-year yield was at 5.2433% following a 2 basis point drop overnight. Investors in bonds with longer maturities remain cautious about inflation risk, as there are few signs of progress being made between the U.S.A. and Iran on ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose 7% to $95.52 per barrel this week, a six-week high. After a 0.6% drop overnight, the dollar was trading at 98.96 versus its major counterparts. It is expected to drop by 0.7% on a weekly basis. Investors increased their bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this month, which helped boost the yen's gains. Markets now indicate a 75% probability of a September move, while a hike in October is fully priced in. This raises the possibility?of a bigger increase or back-toback tightening. Tony Sycamore is an analyst at IG. He said: "While we cannot rule out another round or price check, or intervention, this could also be prepositioning -- either official or speculative, in anticipation of a weak non-farm payrolls tomorrow night and a BOJ meeting that may be hawkish in a week." Gold held steady at $4,470 per ounce on the commodity markets after a 2% increase overnight. The week was set to finish little changed.
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Nigeria's Dangote claims refinery IPO will open within days
Owner?Aliko?Dangote announced on Thursday that the initial public offering (IPO) of Nigeria's Dangote refinery, the largest in Africa, would open within the next 10 to 12 days. "Our dream is to double the capacity of our refinery, which would take us up to 1.4 millions barrels per day." Dangote, who was visiting Botswana in Southern Africa, told investors and analysts that the IPO would open within 10-12 days. The African richest man's refinery is expected to try to raise $5 billion, which could be the largest IPO on the continent. Dangote does not reveal refinery margins. However, the industry has benefited from higher profits as the Middle East turmoil boosted the demand for alternative fuels. The 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery reached full nameplate capacity in February and has already tested output at 700,000 barrels per day. The businessman said that the secondary listing of Dangote Cement - 'another flagship in his industrial empire' - on the London Stock Exchange was most likely to take place in October. This would allow the company greater access to international capital and investors. Dangote is also planning to build an entirely new refinery in Kenya, working with the governments of East Africa. The project is expected to take up to three year to complete and would provide refined petroleum products for Kenya?and its neighbouring countries. This would help reduce East 'Africa's dependence on imported fuels. This would be the largest refining investment made by Dangote Group outside Nigeria. He said: "We will launch it on the 30th of September."
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US: Deal aims to stabilize Venezuelan power grid within 6-12 months
U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright stated that a deal between Venezuelan and U.S. energy equipment and services firm GE Vernova aims 'to help stabilize Venezuela's power?grid within six months to a year, and boost it over the coming years. Wright, speaking to reporters on Wednesday evening before flying back to Washington, said: "The plan immediately is to... within six to twelve months, focus on bringing existing assets back into working order and condition, stabilizing the grid, and extending the hours of service." GE Vernova is one of the companies who committed to?expanding their energy projects in Venezuela? during a ceremony held in Caracas, Venezuela on Wednesday. The event was overseen by Delcy Rodriguez, interim president and Wright. Wright stated that the Guri Dam was built in the 1960s. It is only producing half of the power intended for it, due to the ageing turbines and transmission cables. Rodriguez called the agreements reached with GE Vernova a 'historic step. She called for energy conservation last month due to the drought conditions that were expected by El Nino's weather pattern. After the twin earthquakes that killed thousands of people in June, she called for power conservation. Maria Corina Machado, Venezuela’s opposition leader said on Thursday in a video that only "a serious, democratic government" can provide the stability investors need?in Venezuela. The White House stated that GE Vernova will bring 1 Gigawatt of new energy online within the first 24 months and another 5 GW in the next four years. GE Vernova didn't immediately respond to a comment request.
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Dominion Energy, NextEra secure shareholder approvals for merger deal
According to Thursday's regulatory filings, shareholders of Dominion Energy & NextEra Energy have approved the $66.8 Billion merger. The two companies announced their merger plan in May. This is expected to result in one of the largest electric utilities around, with an expansion of data centers that use a lot of energy to support artificial intelligent. Dominion, a Virginia-based company, serves the world's largest concentration of data centres. After nearly two decades stagnant electricity consumption, a resurgence of electricity demand has led to a wave major utility mergers. The deal is pending regulatory approvals and will create the third largest U.S. Energy Company, behind Exxon Mobil, Chevron and other oil giants. NextEra CEO John Ketchum said in an SEC filing that while shareholder approval was an important step, the company still had work to do as it moved through state and federal regulatory processes. Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger announced in August that she would intervene during the regulatory review of NextEra’s merger with Dominion. She will be pressing for promises on affordable electric bills, job protections, and clean energy investment. The Governor?said that she would become a formal party in the case before the Virginia State 'Corporation Commision, giving her the right to access filings and to ask questions or raise concerns about the transaction. Maine Governor Janet Mills said the same thing in the same month, that NextEra would have excessive control over New England's energy assets. She also stated that this deal would limit competition and make it more difficult to lower energy prices. Maine legislation?in April imposed a ban on new data centres as concerns about their impact on electricity bills and the environment grew.
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Analysis shows that the US munition was most likely responsible for the deadly strike on an Iranian wedding.
Weapons experts reviewed video and images verified by the Iranian authorities and concluded that it was likely a direct strike by an American munition, not a ricochet from another target. The incident in Kuhestak, a small town in Iran, has reignited concern about the civilian cost of the U.S.-Iran war. It is the most dramatic case to date since a missile hit an Iranian primary school and killed scores of students and teachers in February. U.S. Central Command announced that its forces had carried out multiple strikes in Iran's southern region on Sept. 1. These targeted air defense systems, radars, and communication?facilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The barrage was in response to earlier Iranian attacks against U.S. assets around the Gulf. JD Vance, the U.S. president, said on Thursday that the United States is investigating this strike. "We are investigating it because we obviously care." Vance stated during a White House Press Briefing that "We want to know". The U.S. Military said that it is aware of the reports and is looking into them. The Iranian delegation at the United Nations has not responded to a comment request immediately. According to eyewitnesses, on the night of the attack, dozens had gathered at a Kuhestak home for a wedding. According to expert-verified photos and videos, an explosive likely hit the roof of the building during the party. Four military weapons experts were shown the video and images. They said that the damage was consistent for a direct strike, rather than secondary damage caused by a munition ricocheting from another target. Three experts believed the weapon was most likely an American weapon and not an Iranian air defense missile that erred. Experts said that the weapon could have just missed its target. Gareth Collett is a retired British Army Brigadier with a PhD in explosives engineering and a specialization in counter-terrorist bomb disposal. Images show that wedding decorations, which are popular in this?part of Iran, were scattered around the rubble after the strike. A witness sent a message to a friend a few moments after the attack, saying "Kuhestak has been destroyed." Four, five, ten houses were destroyed. There are many people under the rubble. "God help us" Residents of the area spoke anonymously. Under the condition of anonymity two U.S. officials said the U.S. Military had conducted strikes in the area of Kuhestak, specifically targeting the town’s telecommunications mast on September 1. Satellite imagery shows that the tower is approximately 135 meters away from the location of the wedding. According to Iranian media, the tower was struck at around 9:30 pm local time. One U.S. official said that the government is examining various scenarios in relation to the deaths at the wedding. This includes whether the deaths were caused by an American strike, a ricochet from an Iranian air defence missile or even an interceptor going rogue. Balochestan Human Rights Documentation Network (BHDN) and Haalvsh who monitor and document abuses of human rights, reported four deaths and 68 injured. According to the groups, three of the victims were guests at the wedding - Kolsoom Molahi Najhandania (43), Zarkhatoon Theri (50), and Amir Mohammad Karimi (4 years old) - According to the?groups, three of those killed were guests at the?wedding - Kolsoom Mollahi Najhandania, 43; Zarkhatoon Taheri, 50; and four-year-old Amir Mohammad Karimi. Iranian media has also confirmed the names. This incident occurred more than six month after a missile destroyed an elementary school in Minab, on 28th February. Hours later the U.S.-Israeli attacks against Iran that triggered the current conflict began. According to Iranian officials, the missile hit caused the deaths of more than 175 students and teachers. The Pentagon hasn't publicly released its findings on the Minab attack, the U.S. Military's largest civilian casualty event in decades. First reported on March 5, that a preliminary, internal U.S. Military investigation indicated that U.S. Forces were likely responsible for the strike that occurred on the first day of war with Iran. On Sept. 1 at around 9:30 pm local time, social media began to spread posts about a possible attack on a local wedding. Human rights groups that were in contact with local residents reported that local authorities had pressured eyewitnesses to not discuss the attack on foreign media after the strike. Intermediaries were used to contact residents. "There were many people at the wedding." "Many people have been removed, and many more [injured persons] are being taken now," a local resident stated in a message shortly after the wedding. Citing telecommunications authorities in Hormozgan in Iran's state media, the Iranian media said that the tower is a civilian structure which provides mobile, telephone and internet services for people in Sirik County. During the six month war in Iran, U.S. forces repeatedly attacked Iranian radar and communication facilities near the Strait of Hormuz. The aim was to stop the Iranian military from attacking commercial ships and oil tanks transiting this waterway. Iran has demonstrated that it is able to throttle energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which drives up global energy prices and creates a challenge for the Trump Administration ahead of the U.S. midterm Congressional election. Trevor Ball, an ex-U.S. Army explosive ordnance removal technician, and current weapons analyst at Armament Research Services were among the experts that reviewed the photos and videos on request. He said that the damage appeared to be caused by a munition that detonated when it came into contact with the roof or just above. It was a direct strike. The visible blast damage cannot be caused by fragments of the nearby attack on the communications tower that struck the area. He said that it was probably a U.S.-made weapon. Collett agreed that Ball's analysis was correct. He said that the weight of evidence points towards an air-dropped 500 lb munition from the United States, rather than a missile for Iranian air defence. Sebastian Schutte is a Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute, Oslo. He also reviewed the visual materials. He also agreed, based on the evidence available, that the hole in the roof wasn't the result of the ricochet from the telecommunications mast. Three experts agreed that it was unlikely a missile fired by Iran accidentally destroyed the house. Schutte stated that the angle of impact was not consistent with an air defence missile.?Collett also said there was no sign of the type of fragmentation which would be normal with an air-defense warhead. On Iranian media, various weapons fragments have also been shown. Ball identified "some" of these fragments as belonging to the?joint-standoff weapon (JSOW), which is a type glide bomb used by U.S. forces. Could not confirm that the fragments were from the attack on a house in Kuhestak. Residents of Kuhestak held the funerals for those who were killed on Thursday. The procession was filled with mourners carrying caskets and posters while a funeral service played in the background. Women in black full-body cloaks and bright red facemasks, which are distinctive of the southern coast region of Iran threw small flowers onto Amir Mohammad Karimi’s casket when it passed. One eyewitness said, "The situation is sad and mournful in Sirik and the people are still shocked."
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Stocks rally after Waller's comments, which curb rate hike expectations
The stock markets rose on Thursday, while bond yields dropped as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated a willingness for patience in raising interest rates. The Japanese yen rose by 2% against U.S. dollars as traders increased their?bets that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates. Waller said in'remarks at a NEXT Newsmaker Event that if upcoming statistics confirmed that?inflation -pressures are cooling, he would be inclined to advocate for keeping interest rates constant at the next meeting of the U.S. Central Bank. After the comments, the expectations for an increase in rates at the Fed’s mid-September meetings dropped. The market is now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a hike compared to about 63% the previous session, according CME FedWatch. In the early part of this week, bond yields around the world jumped due to inflation fears. Oil prices also soared after the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran erupted in its biggest flare-up for the past six months. JD Vance, the U.S. vice president, told reporters on Thursday that the U.S. will not hold talks with Iran until it stops its attacks against commercial shipping in Strait of Hormuz. Bill Northey is the senior investment director of U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Billings. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill fell 3.8 basis points, on course for its largest fall since August 25 to 4.756%. The yield of the 10-year Treasury note reached 4.818% on Wednesday, its highest level since November 1, 2023. The yield on the 10-year German note was?down by 2 bps earlier at 3.353%. Investors are waiting for Friday's U.S. jobs report to get more information. The August employment report will likely show that the U.S. The economy added 56,000 new jobs in August, keeping the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Stocks rose as bond yields fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 624.16 or 1.18% to 53,686.11, while the S&P 500 rose by 81.11 or 1.06% to 7,747.71, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 366.23 or 1.40% to 26,584.06. MSCI's global stock index rose 11.87 points or 1.04% to 1,154.74. European stocks rose as well, ending a streak of three consecutive sessions of losses. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was up 0.5% to 649.1, recovering from a one-month-low hit on Tuesday. Chipmaker Broadcom was among the day's losers, with its shares dropping 2.7% after it announced a lower-than-expected revenue forecast for the fourth quarter. The Yen jumps on rate hike bets The sudden, sharp rise of the yen in relation to the dollar on Tuesday sparked speculation that Japanese officials were intervening to support the currency. However, analysts pointed out BOJ data which showed no official intervention. Atsushi Mmura, Japan's top foreign exchange diplomat, warned that recent movements in the yen had not made him feel comfortable. The markets now price in 75% of the odds that a BOJ increase of 25 basis points will occur this month. Some traders speculate that an even greater increase could be possible. A further hike in October, although not likely, is also a possibility. The Japanese yen rose last by 2.08% to 155.47 dollars. It is close to the 155.21 yen level, which was the high after an intervention in July. Waller's remarks exacerbated the U.S. Dollar's losses. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies, dropped 0.69% at 98.91. However, the euro rose 0.41% to $1.1634. John Williams, the New York Fed president, said that rising long-term bonds yields were not indicative of inflation fears but rather a strong economy. He added that he is still gathering information for his next monetary decision. Bruce Zaro is the managing director of Granite Wealth Management, Plymouth, Massachusetts. "You've got the Fed governors coming out to voice their opinions, in the absence (of Fed Chair Kevin) Warsh's forward guidance. You have hedge fund managers who are saying that, contrary to what the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said, this is a good time to buy bonds because debt levels don't appear to be an issue. Oil prices were mixed in commodities. Brent crude futures fell 11 cents or 0.12% to settle $95.52 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures rose 29 cents or 0.32% to settle $91.30. Both contracts reached six-week highs during the session. Spot gold increased 1.99% to $4473.40 per ounce.
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Dominion Energy receives approval from shareholders for merger with NextEra
Dominion Energy announced in a regulatory document on Thursday that its shareholders had approved the previously announced $66.8 billion merger with NextEra Energy. 671.32 millions votes were cast "in favor" of the 'deal. In May, the companies announced their merger plan. This is expected to result in one of the largest electric utilities in the world. Dominion, a Virginia-based company, serves the largest concentration of data centres in the world. After nearly two decades stagnant electricity consumption, a resurgence of electricity demand has led to a wave major utility mergers. The deal is subject to regulatory approval and will create the third largest U.S. Energy Company, behind oil giants Exxon?and Chevron. Its enterprise value will be higher than the combined value of the two next biggest U.S. Power companies. Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger announced in August that she would intervene during the regulatory review of NextEra’s merger with Dominion. She would be pressing for promises on?electrical bill affordability, job security and clean energy investment. The Governor said that she would become a formal party in the case before the Virginia State Corporation Commission. This would give her access to the filings and the ability to ask questions or raise concerns about the transaction. Maine Governor Janet Mills also said that same month, the deal would give NextEra an excessive amount of control over New England's energy assets. It would also limit competition and make it harder to reduce energy costs. In April, a 'Maine legislation' imposed a ban on the construction of new data centers due to concerns about their impact on energy bills and on the environment.
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Opposition leader: Oil investors need a democratic Venezuela to be stable
Maria Corina Machado, Nobel Peace Prize winner and opposition leader, said in a video on Thursday that only a "serious democratic government" could provide investors with the stability they need. In a signing event overseen by Delcy Rodrguez, interim president of the United States and Chris Wright, U.S. Secretary of Energy, international energy firms committed to expanding their projects in the country on 'Wednesday. Eni, GE Vernova, and Chevron are among the companies that have signed agreements to revive Venezuela's oil industry. The country produces only about 1.25 million barrels of crude oil per day, a far cry from its peak production of 3 million bpd in the late 90s. These deals are distinct from the Caracas-Washington agreement that grants access to 17 oilfields for the U.S. The deals are separate from a Caracas-Washington deal that gives the?U.S. Machado stated in a video that was posted on X, "The United States are the principal partner Venezuela requires to fully develop its strategy potential." "The enemies (of the United States) in Venezuela are sitting at Miraflores today." We all have to ensure that the strategic partnership between Venezuela, the United States and both countries is properly implemented. She added, "We must attract capital, and sustain long-term investments under conditions of profitability, security and certainty, and deliver a real reduction of Venezuela's country risks." "This is only possible if a serious democratic government provides stability and legitimacy." TRUMP?ADMINISTRATION TIES Machado has spent years cultivating close relationships with the Trump Administration, which in January removed Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. She has been living outside Venezuela since late last, when she fled after hiding to accept her Nobel Prize. Since then, his former vice president Rodriguez has taken the reins. U.S. officials have defended Washington's deal with Venezuela, including Secretary Marco Rubio who is close to Machado. They argued that it was part of an effort to align Venezuela's?energy industry?with America while also helping rebuild a country ravaged by corrupt practices. I just don't believe they are ready yet. It's a very new thing. We got them out of a dictature, and now we get along well with the government," U.S. president Donald Trump told journalists on Wednesday. He praised?Rodriguez. "But soon. "We look forward to doing it soon." DEAL DETAILS QUESTIONED Speaking at a Thursday press conference, Vice President JDVance said that Washington's agreement would benefit both countries, while increasing global oil supplies and lowering gasoline prices. However, he did not give a timeline. Vance, without going into detail, said that "a lot of revenue will go to the people in Venezuela, but it also... puts us in a position where the American people can receive directly some of the royalty payments." Machado stated on Thursday that it was unclear what the "true scope of the deal" was, who would be signing it, what kind of guarantees would be provided, and what the benefits were for Venezuelans. International observers have criticised the official results for a presidential election in 2024, which Machado’s political movement claims it won with a landslide. Venezuela's top court and electoral authorities said Maduro won.
The steepest weekly increase in oil since mid-July due to intensifying US-Iran tensions
The price of oil rose on Friday, and is on track to be the highest weekly gain since mid July. Rising tensions and renewed U.S. - Iran hostilities have heightened concerns about Middle - East supply risks.
Brent 'crude futures increased 15?cents or 0.2% to $95.67 a barge at 0100 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures were up by 26 cents or 0.3% at $91.56.
Brent was up 7.1% on a weekly basis and WTI 9.8%, the biggest gains since the week ending July 20.
The U.S. attack this week, which killed and wounded dozens of people, including Iranians civilians, was the most violent clashes that have occurred between the two nations since July.
The conflict, which began at the end February with U.S. and Israeli strikes, is now in its seventh month.
Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that Israel would "cripple Iran's" military and civil infrastructure, including energy facilities.
JD Vance, the U.S. vice president, told reporters Thursday that Washington will not hold talks with Iran until Tehran ceases to attack commercial shipping in Strait of Hormuz.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who capped oil's rise, said that there was still a?path to an agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine. He added that the U.S. as well as China were prepared to support any peace settlement.
Iran has also expanded the list of vessels it considers non-compliant, and those who attempt to transit through the strait will be fined, confiscated or detained. The only vessels that Tehran has allowed to transit through Hormuz are Iraqi ships.
Two Iraqi energy officials stated on Wednesday that Iraq's oil exports increased to 2.34 million barrels a day in August, from 1.35 million bpd the previous month. September exports are also expected to rise as a result of heavy discounts and Iranian approvals of Iraqi tankers.
(source: Reuters)