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Dollar surges as Fed raises bets on dollar, causing gold to fall.
Gold dropped for a third straight session on Friday, remaining near the more than seven-month high it reached the previous session as the dollar rose on expectations of a rate hike in the United States. Spot gold dropped 0.5%, to $3.982.49 per ounce at 1054 GMT. ?U.S. Gold futures for August deliveries edged down 0.3% to $3.997.60 an oz. The U.S. Dollar hit its strongest level in over 13 months on Thursday. This made greenback-priced metals more expensive for holders of other currencies. CME FedWatch data shows that 66% of the markets believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates in September. Nikos Tzabouras is a senior market analyst for Jefferies' Tradu.com. He said that the Fed's hawkish stance, which led to "a repricing" of rate hike expectations, was still driving gold's decline. Tzabouras said that the AI boom and ETF outflows are both factors that weigh on gold. He noted, however, these forces tend be cyclical, and don't?diminish the structural case for the precious metal. Bullion prices have fallen more than 6% in the week since the Fed meeting and on Wednesday, they fell below $4,000 for the first since November 2025. Prices were down by?more than 28% since its record high of 5,594.82 on January 29. Investors are now awaiting the U.S. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, Personal Consumption Spending?data is due at 1230 GMT. This data will provide further clues about monetary policy. Geopolitically, Lebanon and Israel are reviewing an U.S.-backed proposal?for Israeli troops to hand over to the Lebanese Army?parts Hezbollah era seized territories. Silver spot fell by 0.3% per ounce to $57.26 and platinum dropped 0.4% to $1571.95. Palladium rose 1.3% to $1,181.46. Sumit Saha, Bengaluru (Reporting) Sherry Jacob Phillips and Jonathan Ananda (Editing).
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France raises the alarm over Europe's deadly heatwave
On Thursday, the mayor of Paris warned busy Parisians that they should slow down as large parts Western Europe remain in the grips of a deadly, heatwave which has killed dozens of people, caused power outages, and closed schools and cultural landmarks. In the face of a heatwave in France, Sebastien lecornu activated the highest health service mobilisation level. This meant that non-urgent procedures could be cancelled so as to concentrate on those who are affected by the weather. Paris experienced another scorching day on Wednesday after temperatures in France's capital reached a record high of 40.9 degrees Celsius (105.6 degrees Fahrenheit). After a record high temperature of 36.1 C for June was set on Wednesday in Hampshire, a southern English county in southern England, parts of southern England and Wales experienced another day with record-breaking temperatures. DROWNING DEATHS in France France has implemented several measures to combat heatwaves. In 2003, a heatwave caused an excess of 15,000 deaths. The elderly were the most affected. The younger generation was a major concern this time. The mayor of Paris, Emmanuel Gregoire said that the profile of 'people facing health risks? is not what one would expect. That is, they are the most vulnerable because they are well monitored and informed. "Instead, the people between 50 and70 are in generally good health but think that this is a normal time and go about their daily activities as if there has been no change. "Protect yourself, really," he said. Authorities say that at least 48 people in France have drowned while trying to cool down since the beginning of 'the heatwave. Two children died from heat in their car. After Italian media reported on five deaths from heat related incidents, Orazio Shillaci, the Health Minister in Italy called a meeting for a discussion of risks. Two farmers were killed in northern provinces Lodi, Piacenza and Pavia. Another man was shot in a cemetery near the town of Pavia. A worker from the city of Padua in the northeastern region of Italy, and an unemployed man from the southern city of Naples. AIR CONDITIONING ON DEMAND France has made changes since the 2003 heatwave, including checking on the elderly and offering them the opportunity to spend several hours each day in an air-conditioned room. Air conditioning is still relatively rare in Europe. However, Asian air conditioner manufacturers, including South Korea's Samsung Electronics and China's Midea, as well as Japan's Mitsubishi Electric are experiencing a sales boom, thanks to strong demand in countries like France, Spain, and Italy. Climate Monitor reports that the heatwave has been triggered by an Omega block weather pattern, which can push temperatures up to 18 C higher than normal. This phenomenon is shaped like the Greek letter Omega. The bulbous center traps heat for long periods of time, while the cooler weather occurs on the edges. Climate change is intensifying heatwaves and storms. SCHOOL CHILDREN AND TEACHERS Suffer in the heat Edouard Geffray, the French Minister of Education, said that 13500 schools were either closed or on special schedules Thursday. Many schools in Europe are not equipped to protect children adequately from heat. In Britain, more than 1,000 schools were closed or partially closed as temperatures in some classrooms reached over 40 C. Authorities also expressed concern about the extreme heat in playgrounds without trees. Tower Bridge with its neogothic twin towers and the popular Changing of the Guard ceremony outside Buckingham Palace were among the London attractions that closed. The transport system in London and southern England was also affected. Rail operators have advised passengers not to make any trips other than essentials during the heatwave because of speed restrictions that have caused service cuts. SPORTING EVENTS AFFECTED in Germany and Austria The French weather agency has said that the end of this heatwave is in sight. Temperatures are expected to decrease gradually on Friday. Germany, Austria, and Italy, however, looked to be in for a wild weekend. The National Meteorological Service of Germany issued extreme heat alerts for large areas in western Germany. Temperatures are expected to reach 38 C on Wednesday and 41 C Friday and Saturday. The national rail operator Deutsche Bahn offered its customers the option to cancel their trips due to heat. Meanwhile, a half-marathon scheduled for Sunday morning in Hamburg's northern city was postponed. The national weather service in?neighboring Austria issued a warning of extreme heat for the northeastern part of the country this weekend. This is when temperatures could reach a record high 40 C. The Formula One governing body has declared heat hazards for this weekend's Austrian Grand Prix, which will be held at Spielberg's Red Bull Ring. The declaration of a heat-hazard will require teams to install a cooling system for drivers, such as liquid-cooled vests, but drivers are not required to use these systems and can instead take a penalty on their ballast.
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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Microneconomics
What's important in U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets Micron Technology’s impressive earnings report and demand forecasts from Wednesday have 'heated up' the shaky sector. The trillion-dollar memory chips maker's stock rose 14% over night and ignited a tech rally around the globe on Thursday. Qualcomm also revealed the level of demand for their chips in the upcoming years. So, to suggest that the market wobble this week was due to a easing of chip frenzy is wildly inaccurate. Below, I will go into more detail. Check out my column about why peace in Gulf will not help Federal Reserve's current inflation problem - it could even worsen it. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in markets and finance. MICRONECONOMICS The news about Micron immediately affected other global chip-heavy indexes. Wall Street futures were back up after the main indexes had ended the day in the red on Wednesday. South Korea's KOSPI jumped more that 5% on Friday after its most valuable company SK Hynix filed a U.S. share offering of?some $29 billion on Wednesday. Brent crude is now trading for less than $73 per barrel, which was the price of crude oil just before the Iran War began in late February. The dramatic round trip of energy prices was completed amid reports of increased shipping traffic on the Strait of Hormuz following the announcement of an interim U.S. Iran agreement. This, along with some disappointing U.S. Housing data, did weigh on the long-dated Treasury yields but little to dampen expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The yields on two-year Treasury notes did fall, but they remain 75 basis points above where they were before the Iran War. This is partly because the core U.S. inflation was a major problem before the war began. The May U.S. PCE Report will provide an update later today. The core annual inflation rate is expected to have increased to 3.4% in May. The Fed is wary because it believes that AI spending, rising stock prices and chip prices will all contribute to inflation. This issue could, ironically, be made worse if fuel price declines slow down economic activity. Chart of the Day Micron's quarterly revenue and profit forecast was well above expectations. Customers had also committed $22 billion in order to lock-in supplies of memory chip, sending shares soaring in after-hours trade. Micron stock has nearly quadrupled in value this year. The majority of the increase occurred since April, as the Iran war and energy crisis unfolded. Watch today's events * U.S. may PCE inflation data (8.30 am EDT), durable goods for May (8.30 am EDT), and weekly jobless claims (8:00am EDT). * U.S. 7-year note auction (1 p.m. EDT) * Michelle Bowman of the Fed, John Williams from the New York Fed and Austan Goolsbee of Chicago Fed all speak Want to receive "Morning bid" in your email every morning? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent those of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan).
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Mapping the market: Silver's recent losses could give more ground to gold
Since January, when silver prices peaked at an all-time high, the value of silver has dropped by about half. Silver has dropped more than a quarter against 'gold and charts show that it is 'knocking on the doors of levels?that may spark further losses. Both gold and silver began to suffer on January 30 when the market was flooded with speculation that the Federal Reserve would be less likely to reduce interest rates. Since the beginning of the Iran War, rising fears of inflation have exacerbated the sentiment. Markets are preparing for possible rate hikes. Silver suffered a much greater?drop than gold due in part to its industrial status, which makes it more sensitive to changes in investor?attitudes to risk. Silver also experienced a larger rally than gold and had to give more in the subsequent decline. According to LSEG, gold's recent rise over silver seems to be gaining steam after it recently broke above the 200-day moving average at $66.76. The 200-day moving averge is used by technical analysts to smooth out changes in price to better discern trends. A sustained advance above that level would increase expectations?that it could challenge the February 6 high of $72.74 and then $75.25, the halfway point in gold's fall versus silver since April 2025. If gold were to sustainably rise above $72.74, it could challenge the highs of February 6, and then $75.25 - the midpoint of the fall of silver versus gold since April 2025. If silver was to make a comeback it would have to first pull gold below the 200-day moving?average?before moving to the low of June 22 at $62.68. Silver's momentum would be boosted if the price dropped below $60.56. This is the mid-point of the range between?May and?June. The chart below shows: Since January, gold has been increasing in value compared to silver. Silver weakness is predicted by the fact that gold-to-silver breaks above its 200-day moving-average. * The next upside target is 70. 72.74 is a key resistance level above that.
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Wall Street will see a surge in trading as the Russell 1000 index is set to include SpaceX and small-cap stocks
Investors anticipate heavy trading volumes on Friday as a result of changes in the Russell indexes. These include reclassifications and additions to the Russell 1000, such as SpaceX after its recent IPO. Fund managers are expected to adjust their 'portfolios' in order to take into account the new weightings of various indexes that FTSE Russell is reorganizing in its largest shift ever. The Russell indexes are being reconstituted for the first time since over 30 years twice, in June and December. Reshuffled small-cap stocks will also see big changes. Dozens of smaller companies are moving up to the larger indexes. Steven DeSanctis is an equity analyst with Jefferies, New York. He said that this week's reconstitution may result in a "really huge trade" on the Friday. "And the turnover has been dramatic. This is a good argument?for two years." After the close of the U.S. stock market on Friday, index changes are implemented. Trading starts the next Monday. SpaceX will be categorized as 90.4% growth and 9.6% value. This means that it will play a major role in the Russell 1000's growth investment. Apple and Microsoft will also be affected, as they will now be included in both the value and growth Russell 1000 indexes. In the past, index rebalancings have caused volumes to increase just before they take effect. These moves also affect the performance of companies moving from smaller-cap indexes to larger-cap ones. Investors will be watching closely to see how FTSE Russell implements the 'fast-entry rule' for IPOs, which was announced by the company in late May. Anthropic and OpenAI, two AI companies, are expected to go public later this year. This week, the NYSE issued its usual alert to investors regarding the Russell index re-constitution. Catherine Yoshimoto is the director of product development for the Russell US Indexes, at FTSE Russell. She said that the June reconstitution does not bring "major rule changes" to the indexes. Melissa Roberts is an analyst at Stephens. She said that the total reconstitution day trading is estimated to be close to $150 billion. Friday is therefore a "key day of liquidity". The reshuffle moves Amazon.com into the value category, while Alphabet is transitioning to a 100% growth rate and Advanced Micro Devices are among the biggest removals from Russell 1000 Value. These companies have grown. "They are the market", said Krishna Chintalapalli at Parnassus Investments, San Francisco. According to FTSE Russell, some of the?changes reflected the continued strength in computer hardware and semiconductor companies linked to optimism about AI. Micron Technology, SanDisk and other companies are being added to the Russell 1000 Growth Index. Goldman Sachs strategists recently predicted that semiconductor stocks would experience the greatest weight increases within the Russell 1000 Growth Index. The Russell 1000 index will include 62 new companies, 43 of which are moving up from Russell 2000. The majority of new Russell 1000 companies are from the technology and industrial sectors. Roberts stated that this year, we are seeing a greater turnover of names which have performed well in the 2000 and have now moved up to the 1000. The strength of those names has propelled them up. A major shift has occurred with Bloom Energy, which moved from the Russell 2000 to the Russell 200 Megacap Index of the 200 biggest U.S. Companies. Stocks of the power generation company are up over 1000% in a year, thanks to contracts to supply power for AI data centers. (Reporting and editing by Colin Barr, David Gregorio and Caroline Valetkevitch from New York)
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UK and EU agree on steel quotas under new trade protections
The UK confirmed on Thursday that new steel trade protections will take effect on 1 July. It said it had negotiated a quota agreement with the European Union to minimize the impact on its biggest trading partner. Both Britain and the EU are taking steps to protect their domestic steel producers. They cite concerns about the "dumping" by countries like China of steel that has been heavily subsidised. They have also held discussions to ensure the measures they take do not negatively affect each other. Britain announced on Tuesday that the EU will have tariff-free quotas for multiple categories of steel products, including 375,000 tons per year for certain flat steel 'products. The bloc would also offer reciprocal access to British steel. Chris Bryant, the UK's Trade Minister, said that Britain had "engaged closely" with the EU and the measures will "provide stability to UK-EU Steel trade". He said: "We recognize that this will cause changes in?trade flows, including with some our closest trading partners." "We want to reassure them that we remain committed to our international commitments and constructive engagement in our steel measure," he said. After decades of deindustrialisation, and more recently high energy prices and a global glut cheap steel, the birthplace the Industrial Revolution has struggled to stay afloat. Ministers have warned that Britain's steel industry faces an existential danger unless the protections are enhanced and renewed. The final details were announced by Britain on June 30th, replacing a protection that expired in?June 30th. Instead of the 60% previously proposed, the imports permitted under tariff-free quotes would be reduced by 51%. Imports that exceed the quota are now subject to a tariff of 50%, an increase from 25%. Bryant stated that the total quota would be around 3.2 million tonnes, which is 21% more than what was originally proposed. Changes will be implemented next month. The EU and U.S. also increased tariffs on steel outside of quotas?to 50%. However, Britain secured a lower U.S. duty?of 25%. India?voiced concerns over Britain's steel measures but now says it is reassured, as the two countries prepare to implement their free trade agreement. Reporting by Sam Tabahriti, Alistair Smout. (Editing by William James, Mark Potter and William James)
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Singapore's oil products stocks recover to a one-month high
Official data on Thursday showed that oil product inventories in Singapore, the Asian trading hub, have recovered to levels not seen for a month. They had fallen to 13-year lows last week, but they are now back at levels never before recorded. According to Enterprise Singapore, the number of barrels of oil products onshore totaled 42.19 millions in the week ending June 24. This is a 20% increase from the previous week. Since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began, global oil inventories are down by a large amount. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased this week after peace talks ended, allowing for more cargoes transit. STOCKS REACH FOUR WEEK HIGHS Light distillates, middle distillates and residual fuels all reached four-week highs. The total gasoline exports for the week were approximately 11.45 million metric tonnes (97 million barrels), far exceeding imports which were roughly?266,000 ton. South Korea alone took nearly 10.77 millions tons, followed closely by Indonesia with around 242,000 ton. The naphtha inventory increased due to the fact that imports (3.2?million barrels), mainly from Russia, exceeded exports (86,000 tons). Cargoes arriving mostly from Russia, at 183,000 tons, were more than 60,000 tons of shipments destined primarily for Indonesia. This week there were no Middle Eastern fuel oil and naphtha imports, but market sources anticipate a recovery in supply due to the reopening the Strait. The residuum fuel oil inventory has risen to over 20 million barrels, the highest level since late May. This is a 35.4% increase from just a week ago to 20,3 million barrels (3,2 million tons). The total imports increased by 47%, reaching nearly 760,000 tonnes. South Korea emerged as the top origin with a volume of nearly 130,000 tones. Market sources reported that active refiners of fuel oil, including GS Caltex & S-Oil were the main contributors. The sources did not want their names to be made public because they were not authorized to speak with the media. Brazil is the second most popular origin, as part of the regular arbitrage supply from the West. Indonesia follows, selling residual fuel through regular tenders. Total fuel oil exports dropped 15% to 356,000 tonnes. MIDDLE DISTRILLATE EXPORTS?FALL Stockpiles of middle distillate rose by about 3% in this week, as exports dropped and imports remained'sluggish. Stockpiles rose by 283,000 barrels compared to a week ago, reaching around 8.52million barrels. The total imports of diesel, at around 141,000 tonnes, remained relatively stable from week to week. Taiwan and South Korea were the top importers. The total diesel exports fell by 57% to around 240,000 tonnes, with the majority of volumes going to Australia. The total imports of jet fuel fell by 11%, mainly from South Korea. The total exports were driven mainly by volumes sent to Australia. 43,000 tons of goods were exported.
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Heatwaves in Europe's schools
Children at the Harris Primary Academy Mayflower, located in Chafford Hundred just east of London cooled off by slurping ice lollies and splashing in paddling pools. Advikhaa said, "I feel cooler and airier" about the special measures. These include allowing the children to swap their school uniforms with lighter clothing. The aim is to make it easier for the children to cope with the high temperatures. Thousands of schools across Europe sent their pupils home because they couldn't find a short-term solution to the record-breaking heat. Many schools cannot protect their students from heat because such incidents are becoming more intense and frequent. Around 1,000 schools in England and Wales closed or shortened their school days, and authorities reported that attendance at the remaining open schools had decreased as parents kept children at home. Edouard Geffray, the French Education Minister, said that 13,500 French schools were closed on Thursday or on a special schedule due to heat. BRITISH TEACHERS PASSING OUT CLASS Few schools in Europe have air conditioning, which leaves classrooms hot and humid when temperatures are at their highest. The British Teaching Union NASUWT reported that several of its members fell asleep in class when temperatures reached 40 degrees Celsius on Tuesday. Wayne Bates, NASUWT’s national lead for safety and health, said that schools are not prepared to deal with temperatures of this kind. In France, teachers are resorting to makeshift remedies to combat the heat. Some teachers taped emergency blankets on windows, or used screwdrivers and misting sprays at school. Researchers have discovered that high classroom temperatures can have a negative impact on the learning process. Researchers found that lowering classroom temperatures from 30 C down to 20 C increased performance by 20%. Paul-Emile Perret Porret, 17, is a student at a Paris high school. He said that his parents booked an air-conditioned room for him on the night of 'his baccalaureat', France's crucial school-leaving examination, so he could have a good sleep. The heat can make it worse if you are unable to sleep the night before an exam. It's good to be in shape and spend the night with air conditioning, he said. Southern Europe is more used to dealing with summer heat. In June and September, most schools in Spain switch to a half day to avoid the afternoon heat. Spain, Greece, and Italy all break for holidays around mid-June. This is earlier than other European countries to the north. However, longer holidays can worsen social inequalities, with some families not being able to afford childcare or entertainment, as well as ways to protect their children from extreme temperatures, according to Desiree Zaugg. She is a child rights expert at UNICEF Switzerland and Liechtenstein. Northern Europe has been going in the opposite direction. Governments are trying to spread out holiday time evenly over the year. In 2017, the French government changed the holiday start date from the last week of June to the first full week of July. Many schools in southern Europe are looking for ways to combat the heat, as more heatwaves are expected as early as April or May. 60 C in SEVILLE School Boards Greenpeace installed thermal cameras in Spanish schools that recorded surface temperatures of up to?35 C. In classrooms, in Madrid. And?60 C. in schoolyards, in Seville. Barcelona's city authorities raised EUR100m ($114m) through a tourist tax in order to equip 170 schools with air conditioning before 2030. Parents from CEIP Unamuno School in Madrid protested in front of the town hall in Madrid earlier this month after learning that a bid they won last year for air conditioning, fans and shade in schoolyards had been allocated to replace windows in 'another school. France has 6200 projects underway to reduce heat in schools, as part of the EUR800 million allocated towards climate adaptation. Venetitay said that air conditioning is not the only solution to adapting schools. French unions are talking with their counterparts in southern Europe about possible solutions. She said that these?options? include adding plants to the schoolyards, and installing window filtering, which can?lower temperatures by 4 C. She added that exam times might need to be restricted?to the mornings when heatwaves are present. Thierry Pajot is the president of the School Principals' Union. He told FranceInfo that when France experiences its hottest day in history, it's sometimes best to send the pupils home. He said: "I don't want to hear about a student or a staff member dying because of the heatwave."
The dollar is weaker and risk appetite is higher, which leads to bargain-hunting.
After two days of 'heavy losses', copper?prices rose on Thursday as investors took advantage of bargains. A?weaker dollar and optimism across the wider financial markets also aided. London Metal Exchange benchmark three-month Copper gained 1.1% at $13,233 per metric ton, by 0915 GMT. This is after losing more than 4% in the previous two sessions.
Ewa Mnthey, commodities analyst at ING, said: "Copper has recovered after a steep drop earlier in the week. This is due to a softer currency and an improved 'risk appetite. Stocks surged globally after Micron and Qualcomm's strong forecasts and earnings helped reignite AI rally.
The metals market was also boosted by a weaker dollar index, which reached a 13-month high on Wednesday. This could be due to the belief that investors have in regards to interest rate hikes this year.
The dollar's weakness makes the price of commodities in U.S. dollars cheaper for buyers who use other currencies.
Manthey said that the mood was reserved.
The broader macro-background remains challenging with expectations of higher U.S. rates for longer weighing on industrial materials more generally. LME aluminium increased 0.8% to $3.148 per ton, after giving up all its gains since the Iran War began in the previous session.
In a note, analysts at Sucden Financial wrote that the decline "highlights the speed with which the market has repricing once energy concerns have?eased.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium contract fell 2.6%, closing daytime trading at 22865 yuan (3360.82 dollars) per ton. It had earlier fallen to its lowest level since 2026. LME Nickel increased 0.3% to $16,860 per ton, after Indonesia's top producer said that it has not yet determined its quota of?nickel for 2026, amid speculation about an increase.
Other?metals rose by 0.3% on the LME to $3,432 per ton. Lead increased 0.4% to $2,921 while tin grew 1.1% to $50,000.
(source: Reuters)