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Oil prices increase after attacks on Saudi oil installations

The oil prices climbed in the early hours of Friday's trading, following the attacks on the?Saudi energy industry, and the markets assessing the risk premium from the ongoing closure of Strait of Hormuz. This was despite the fragile truce that the U.S. has reached with?Iran. Brent crude futures rose 83 cents or 0.87% to $96.75 per barrel at 0100 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures rose $1.04 or 1.06% to $98.91 per barrel.

In a recent note, IG analyst Tony Sycamore stated that the initial relief after President Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire has given way to underlying concerns.

Iran and the U.S. announced a ceasefire on Tuesday, but the fighting continued after the announcement.

Sycamore stated that "all eyes are firmly focused on tanker tracker flow through the Strait of Hormuz to look for signs of increased activity before Friday's scheduled peace talks in Pakistan." Analysts believe Pakistan will push for a durable peace agreement in the talks, but it may not have the leverage to force the reopening of?Strait of Hormuz. A Tehran official said on April 7 that Iran would like to charge fees for ships crossing the strait as part of a peace agreement. Western leaders, as well as the U.N. shipping agency, have rejected the idea.

The conflict that began February 28 with the U.S. and Israel's air attacks on Iran has effectively closed down the crucial artery of oil and gas flow. John?Paisie of energy consultants Stratas Advisors said that Brent prices could reach as high as $190 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz continues to flow at its current rate.

If Iran permits increasing flows, the price of oil will be more moderate but still far above pre-war levels. Saudi Press Agency reported that attacks on Saudi Arabian oil production have reduced the kingdom's production by 600,000 barrels per day and the throughput of its East-West Pipeline has been reduced by 700,000 barrels per day. JPMorgan analysts said in a recent research note that the announcement "changes the narrative from an episodic disruption to one of a measurable shock." JPMorgan says that drone and missile attacks have damaged 50 infrastructure assets in the Gulf over the past six weeks. Around 2.4 million barrels per day of oil refining have also been shut down.

(source: Reuters)