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Questions are raised about some trades made ahead of Trump's policy changes

Questions are raised about some trades made ahead of Trump's policy changes
Questions are raised about some trades made ahead of Trump's policy changes

Experts have questioned whether some of Donald Trump's most important policy decisions were preceded by well timed bets.

This is a list.

March 23, 2026: IRAN ATTACK pause. An unidentified trader or traders placed $500 million in bets on Brent and WTI futures within a minute, shortly before Trump announced that he would delay the?attacks against Iran's energy infrastructure for five days. After Trump's announcement, oil prices dropped 15%.

LSEG data indicates that between 1049 and 10:00 GMT,?5,100?? lots changed hands. Selling dominated volume. Trump's announcement on social media at 1105 GMT caused over 13,000 lots, or 13 million barrels, to trade in just 60 seconds. Brent fell to $99 from $112 per barrel and WTI to $86 from $99.

February 28, 2026 – IRAN STRIKES KILLED SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI Wagers made on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi prior to the death of Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei heightened scrutiny over prediction markets. Democratic lawmakers called for a ban on wagers that are tied to military action, which could reward those who have privileged information.

A review of Polymarket’s website revealed that at the time, $529 million had been wagered on a variety of contracts tied to timing of U.S. - Israeli strikes against Iran. Another $150 million had been staked on Khamenei’s removal as supreme ruler. Prediction markets allow users to wager on real-world events through a range of tradable contracts.

Bubblemaps, an analytics firm, identified six accounts which made a total profit of $1.2 million from Polymarket bets funded just hours before the raids on February 28. U.S. Rep. Mike Levin from California highlighted one particular Polymarket bet that was placed just before the Iran strike.

Separately traders moved the opposite way on February 27 despite hotter than expected inflation data, which would normally prompt investors to sell long-dated Treasuries. They pushed yields on 10-year notes below 4%. Analysts say that such a shift to safe-haven assets is usually driven by macroeconomic events which are negative or imminent.

The Dow Jones U.S. Airlines Index fell 5.13% that day, as oil prices increased.

January 3, 2026 -- U.S. CAPTURE OF FORMER VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT NICOLASMADURO An unknown trader made a profit of approximately $410,000 in January after betting on the ouster Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Before the weekend raid on Maduro’s Caracas compound by U.S. Special Forces, a trader’s account at Polymarket had built up contracts that were?tied to Maduro’s removal. The terms implied high odds. These wagers, which were worth approximately $34,000 before his capture, soared in value when news of the U.S. military action broke on January 3.

Trading data shows that unidentified traders bet millions on the U.S. Stock Market rebounding in the moments before Trump's announcement of a tariff pause. This triggered a huge rally in April last year. Trump's Truth Social post pausing the tariffs was posted at 1:18 pm. ET on April 9 triggered a 9.5% increase for the S&P 500. Data from the market shows that certain options contracts saw a surge in trading activity before it. Around 1 p.m., 5,105 call options for SPY were traded. The average price of the SPY call options was $4.20.

These calls rose as high as 42 dollars, turning 2,14 million dollars into approximately $21.44 millions on paper.

Other SPY calls that bet on the ETF going above $509 were traded around 1:10 pm. ET; their value increased from $624,000 to $10 million at the end of the day.

The trader could not tell if the calls had been?all bought or sold by a single trader, or whether several traders were involved and if they had closed their position with a profit.

Kush Desai, White House spokesperson, said that government ethics guidelines prohibit federal employees from profiting from nonpublic information. In an email, he stated that any implication of Administration officials engaging in such activities without evidence was baseless and irresponsible.

(source: Reuters)