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Nikkei records record, Asian shares end week of central banks with gains
The Nikkei soared to a new record as the Bank of Japan opted not to raise rates again. This week, the central banks of the United States of America, Canada, and Norway all cut their interest rates, while the Bank of England remained unchanged. Bank of Japan's easy monetary policy is expected to remain unchanged Friday despite domestic political uncertainty. James Rossiter is the head of global macro strategy for TD Securities. We expect many central banks to cut their risk appetites at their next meeting, despite the fact that there is still a lot of uncertainty. Nikkei rose 0.7% on Friday to reach another record high before the BOJ meeting. This brought the weekly increase to 2%, after a 4% rise the previous week. The Japanese yen remained at 148 per $1. The data showed that Japan's core rate of inflation was 2.7% for the year ending August. This is the lowest pace in nine month, but it still exceeded the central bank's target of 2%. Chang Wei Liang is a FX & credit analyst at DBS Group. He said that given the political uncertainty, a BOJ interest rate hike could be delayed until the results of the LDP's leadership elections on the 4th October. He said that the LDP candidate Sanae Takaichi's comments, which she will make at a presser later on Friday, to explain her policy, may have an impact on the yen, given her preference for a monetary and fiscal policy that is accommodative. South Korea fell by 0.4%, but remained near its record high. The week-over-week gain was 1.5%, which brings the two-week total to almost 8%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.3% on Friday, but it is still expected to rise by 0.5% weekly. It is not far off its four-year highs. On Friday, stock options, stock index options, and stock index futures expire all on the same date, resulting in increased trading activity and possible market volatility. Nasdaq and S&P futures both remained unchanged. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3%, as the Hang Seng slipped 0.2% ahead of a phone call expected between President Donald Trump with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Investors have a lot to consider before the meeting, with a possible deal on TikTok, China's Huawei revealing its chip plans and Beijing ordering tech companies not to purchase Nvidia AI chips. The benchmark S&P 500 index, Dow Jones and Nasdaq closed overnight at new records, thanks to better data on jobless claims and news that Nvidia would invest $5 billion into the struggling U.S. semiconductor maker Intel. Intel shares soared 23% while Nvidia rose 3.5%. The dollar recovered on the foreign exchange market after the Fed made its first cut in 9 months. The dollar index remained at 97.42 after plunging as low as 96.224, a multi-year record. The BOE held rates at 4%, and the pound lost 0.6% over night. Dollar gained 0.9% against the Norwegian crown following the Norges Bank's rate cut and indication that rates may continue to drop. The 10-year Treasury yields remained at 4,1102% on the bond market after gaining 3 basis points overnight. Oil prices on commodity markets were stable Friday after falling in the previous session. U.S. crude oil was barely changed at $63.60 per barrel, while Brent oil was unchanged at $67.47. Gold spot prices are held at $3.647 per ounce.
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Zijin Gold to launch Hong Kong's biggest IPO in 2025, $3.2 billion
According to a prospectus published on Friday, Zijin Gold International is a wholly owned unit of China’s mining giant Zijin Mining and aims to raise HK$24.98billion ($3.21billion) through a Hong Kong Initial Public Offering, making it the largest offering of this kind in Hong Kong so far this year. The prospectus stated that Zijin Gold will sell 349 million shares for HK$71.59 each. Trading in shares is expected to begin on the stock exchange on September 29. Zijin Gold would be the biggest IPO in Hong Kong for this year. It would surpass Chery, a Chinese automaker, which offered on Wednesday. Chery aimed to raise $1.2 billion. The battery giant CATL raised $4.6 billion on May 15, the largest Hong Kong listing ever. In the prospectus, Zijin Gold, the company that owns all the gold mines of Zijin Mining outside China, stated it plans to use the proceeds of the sale over the next five-year period to upgrade and construct existing mines, as well as to enhance production. Morgan Stanley and CITIC Securities jointly sponsor the offering. According to Zijin, the spin-off of Zijin Gold International and its independent listing will improve financing efficiency and broaden financing channels. ($1 = $7.7771 Hong Kong Dollars) (Reporting and editing by Alan Barona in Hong Kong & Sherin Sunny, Bengaluru)
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Nigeria leads the continent-wide campaign for unification of oil regulations
The Nigerian oil regulator announced that African oil regulators, led by Nigeria, have launched a forum to harmonise oil regulation. This is in an effort to attract investment in the rapidly growing energy sector in the region. African oil regulators, due to the decline in investment dollars, are betting on a more transparent and consistent energy market that is integrated across all jurisdictions. Sixteen countries gathered at Accra for the signing of the charter establishing African Petroleum Regulators Forum. Gbenga Kmolafe was the chairperson of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, which is the upstream regulator of Nigeria. Eight countries, including Nigeria Ghana, Somalia Gambia Madagascar Sudan, Guinea and Togo have endorsed this charter formally, while seven other countries have pledged their support, pending consultations at home. AFRIPERF aims at becoming the continent's leading platform for regulatory co-operation, knowledge sharing and promotion of investment in the petroleum industry. Its mission is to create standards, improve transparency, and address cross-border issues such as the gas trade, emissions, and digitalisation. Komolafe said that this is a crucial step towards building a sustainable and harmonized petroleum industry in Africa. He noted that the forum would help to ensure Africa's oil and gas resources are managed "with innovation, responsibility and foresight." The forum's governance will be overseen by an executive committee made up of regulatory heads. They will be supported by a technical panel of subject matter experts, and a rotating Secretariat. In the next few months, AFRIPERF will elect its chairperson and location of headquarters. This move reflects the growing desire of African nations to align their energy governance standards with global ones, while also asserting a greater voice in international policy.
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US judge declares defaulted Venezuelan bonds valid
On Thursday, a U.S. court upheld the validity and the 2020 bonds of Venezuelan oil company PDVSA. This led to the suspension of an auction of shares of the parent company of Venezuelan-owned U.S. refining firm Citgo. The bonds are secured by a majority stake in Citgo, which is ultimately owned by Caracas-headquartered PDVSA. The company defaulted in 2019 on the bonds, putting the refiner under threat of seizure from creditors. Since years, bondholders and companies expropriated by Venezuela have been fighting in U.S. courtrooms for the country's assets abroad, including Houston-based refiner Citgo Petroleum valued at $13 billion. Venezuela defaulted in the payment of those bonds and others issued by PDVSA and the country. After winning arbitration cases, several companies whose Venezuelan assets had been expropriated from them by the late president Hugo Chavez now seek to seize Venezuela's overseas assets. Citgo cut ties with PDVSA after Washington sanctioned it in 2019 to try and oust Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. The Venezuelan political opposition then took over the company's control. The opposition is trying to protect Citgo, and other assets, from creditors or companies that are seeking compensation for expropriated assets or defaulted debt. The opposition argued that 2020 bonds had not been issued in accordance with Venezuelan law. Katherine Polk Failla, U.S. district judge in Manhattan, ruled on Thursday that the bonds had indeed been issued properly. The bonds were declared valid by the judge in 2020. However, an appeals court ordered a further review. Failla's decision led to a brief suspension of a separate Delaware auction for shares in Citgo parent company, before U.S. district judge Leonard Stark. This was done to allow the court time to consider the implications of Failla’s ruling. Citgo, the 7th largest oil refiner in the United States, will likely be determined by the auction. 15 companies, including bondholders, are bidding for Citgo's assets. The auction includes a subsidiary from Gold Reserve, and Amber Energy, a division of Elliott Investment Management. Lawyers for Venezuela said in Stark's Stark courtroom earlier this week that they would appeal if the validity of 2020 bonds was confirmed. Sources close to preparations say that after Failla's decision, the boards overseeing Citgo met urgently with their lawyers in order to plan future action. The sale proceedings are now in their fourth week. The judge has yet to make key decisions regarding pending procedural questions or confirm the auction winner.
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Hyundai Motor will increase US production and trim profit margins on tariff hit
Hyundai Motor announced on Thursday that it will produce over 80% of its vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2030, in response to U.S. Tariff Policies. The South Korean automaker is ramping up capacity at their Georgia plant. In a press release, the automaker announced that it had lowered its target for 2025 operating profit to 6-7%. This was down from an earlier stated 7-8%. The company cited U.S. Tariffs as a reason. The company still expects its profit margins will improve to 7-8% in 2027, and 8-9% in 2030. Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp, the third largest automaker in the world by sales, announced that their Georgia factory would reach a production capacity of 500,000 cars a year by 2020, using a mixture of hybrids and electric vehicles. Jose Munoz said, on Thursday, at a Hyundai Motor investor day in New York that he hopes South Korea and the U.S. can work together to find solutions for short term business travel by specialised workers. Munoz stated that many of the workers detained were helping to calibrate and test advanced production technology in a facility supporting Hyundai's U.S. operation. Hyundai reported that 40% of the vehicles it sold in America, its largest market, which generates about 40% of revenue, were manufactured in America in this year. Shin Yoon Chul, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, said that Hyundai's plan to produce 80% of its vehicles in the United States, which is the highest production in the industry, may later turn into a fixed cost burden. Shin said Hyundai would need to prove that maintaining U.S. manufacturing at this level makes sense even if the tariffs are removed. For example, by showing that after its Georgia factory breaks-even, humanoid robotics could be deployed there in order to further increase profitability. The automaker will also expand its global lineup of hybrid vehicles to 18 models or more by the end the decade. This is up from the 14 models that were announced last year. It will also launch its first midsize pickup truck in North America in 2030 and extended range electric vehicle (EREV) in 2027. The company's Georgia factory will manufacture a mixture of hybrid and electric models. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced on July 30 that the U.S. would charge a tariff of 15% on South Korean imports, compared to the 25% threatened, and lower duties on auto imports, from 25% to 15%, as a reward for Seoul investing $350 Billion in the United States. Washington has implemented a 15% lower tariff rate for imports of autos and auto parts coming from Japan. South Korea, on the other hand, still faces 25% tariffs. Seoul and Washington are still struggling to resolve details of the $350 billion fund for investment that was agreed upon in July. Hyundai Motor reported that U.S. Tariffs cost them 828 billion won (606.37 million dollars) in the second-quarter. The impact is expected to be greater in the period from July to September. Reporting by Heekyong Ya, Joyce Lee and Hyunjoo Ji; editing by Ed Davies, Nia Williams
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A trader claims that diamond selling methods are outdated and harm producers.
A leading gem trader stated on Thursday that the sale of diamonds via tenders and auctions was opaque and inefficient. It should be redesigned to help producers earn more money and survive the current price drop. Oded Mansori is the co-founder and managing director of Belgian gem trading company HB Antwerp. He said that inefficiencies within the industry could reduce the impact on the producers. Diamond demand is suffering from global economic uncertainty, and lab-grown diamonds are becoming more popular. Lower revenues have led to the layoff of workers in mines such as Burgundy, and Lesotho’s largest diamond mine Letseng. "For years, miner's relied on auctions and tenders. Systems that appear efficient on paper, but in reality resemble a gambling casino," Mansori stated in a press release, as the mining industry struggles with a crisis thought to be its worst in history. "Rough stones will be pushed onto opaque markets, where the value of these stones is hard to estimate. Producers are exposed when global demand softens as it has done in cycles during the past decade. "Workers pay the price while shareholders watch their assets decline," said he. Rough diamonds can be sold by a system of competitive bidding, whereby buyers make confidential bids for individual stones or parcels. Mansori's company, which operates a profit sharing model with miner Lucara Diamond Corp., believes that producers should tie their revenues to the final polished value of their stones, "rather gambling on rough sales at opaque auctions". HB Antwerp, in partnership with Lucara and the Toronto-listed firm's Karowe Mine located in central Botswana, purchases stones above 10.8 carats at prices based upon the estimated polished value for each diamond. HB Antwerp accounted 72% of Lucara’s $74 million in diamond revenues for the six-month period ending June 30. This is up from 65% a year earlier. The trader claims that producers can make up to 40% extra revenue by using this model. (Reporting and editing by Nelson Banya, Frances Kerry and Brian Benza)
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Wall Street to resume record-breaking run after Fed rate reduction
The dollar and Wall Street futures rose slightly on Thursday following the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut for the year. French markets were jittery, and the pound remained steady after UK interest rates remained unchanged. The Fed's quarter point cut and "steady-as she goes" message helped Europe's stock market climb almost 1%, and Wall Street was set for yet another round of records highs despite the somewhat hesitant response from traders on Wednesday. Asia also rallied over night. Chinese stocks reached a decade-high as local chipmakers rejoiced at reports that U.S. giant Nvidia was banned in China. South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan's Nikkei also ended higher than 1%. Donald Trump, the U.S. President and Xi Jinping, the Chinese president are both scheduled to speak Friday. There was also a sense of relief that the dollar held up well after hitting a three-and-a-half-year low earlier this week. This has caused those who export to the U.S. to grind their teeth. The Fed's "dot plot", which is closely monitored, had indicated that two additional rate reductions would be made over the remaining two meetings of this year but only one in 2026. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also moderated expectations by saying that the central bank didn't need to act quickly, though analysts admit this could change. Richard Cochinos, RBC Capital Markets, said: "We look beyond the volatility of one or two days to find underlying trends." In this case, we expect a weaker U.S. Dollar," Cochinos said. He pointed to the expectation of U.S. interest rates falling to 3% in 2013. The gains of the dollar were trimmed by traders in Europe. The euro was largely unchanged at $1.1825 and sterling was just above $1.36. As expected, the Bank of England maintained UK interest rates at 4%. The vote of 7-2 to reduce the annual rate at which the UK government bonds it bought during the financial crisis and COVID crises are sold to 70 billion pounds instead of 100 billion pounds was viewed with slightly more interest. The poll was mostly accurate, but the gilt markets are now nervous about UK government finances this year. A key budget is due in late November. James Rossiter, TD Securities, said that the bond reduction was not a surprise. He now expects another 25-bps rate cut right before the budget in November. FRENCH FOCUS Wall Street futures saw a 30% jump in Intel shares during premarket trading after news that Nvidia would invest $5 billion into the struggling company. The bond markets began to sputter, as the yield on benchmark Treasury notes of 10 years - which moves in the opposite direction to the price - was little changed at 4.08%. And the two-year rate remained unchanged at 3.53%. The benchmark yield for the Euro Zone, Germany's 10-year bond, was also stuck at 2.69%. However, attention was also focused on France's. Political tensions Its bond yields briefly rose above Italy's. Unions claim that hundreds of thousands protested against austerity in France on Thursday. They urged President Emmanuel Macron, and Sebastien Lecornu, his new prime minister, to acknowledge the anger they felt and cancel looming budget reductions. On the currency markets, the Chinese yuan ticked up after its central banks left the borrowing costs of its reverse repurchase agreement for seven days unchanged overnight. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar fell after data showed that the economy there shrank much more than was expected. Norwegian crown, which was flying high in the past few months, also softened after its central banks lowered rates by 25 basis points. However it still remained near a three-year-high against the dollar. After weaker than expected labour market data, the Australian dollar has also fallen from a near-year-high. Brent crude rose 0.4% to $68.25 a barrel, despite an initial dip on the commodity markets. Gold, the safe-haven asset, also rose 0.3% to $3670 an ounce.
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Gold rises on weaker dollar following Fed rate cut
Gold prices rose Thursday on a soft dollar after the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis point and announced a gradual ease for the remainder of the year. This boosted the metal's appeal. As of 1144 GMT, spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,667.12 an ounce. On Wednesday, prices reached a new record of $3 707.40. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 0.5% to $3701.00. Dollar pared its recent gains, and the dollar hovered around a two-month high. This made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. The yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury notes also dropped. The dollar's weakness has returned, and this has supported gold prices. However, the rate decision was on the dovish end, as the statement or dot plots indicated that two rate cuts would be coming in the next year, according to Fawad Rasaqzada. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis point on Wednesday, and said it would continue to lower borrowing costs throughout the remainder of this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the action as risk-management in response to the weakening of the labor market. He said that the Fed is in a situation where it has "meetings by meetings" in regards to the interest rate outlook. In a low-interest rate environment, non-yielding gold bullion is a good investment. It's a safe haven during times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty. Independent analyst Ross Norman stated that "the bull run in gold is still very much present and we are likely to see record highs persist." According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 90 percent chance that the Fed will cut rates again by 25 basis points at its next meeting in November. ANZ said that it expects gold will outperform the early stages of the easing cycle. The bank said that the demand for safe haven assets in a geopolitical environment of uncertainty is likely to increase investor demand. The price of spot silver was up 0.5% at $41.84 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.9%, to $1,390.43, while palladium fell 1% to $1,142.19/oz. (Reporting from Ishaan Mukherjee, Anmol Choubey and Anushree mukherjee in Bengaluru, and editing by Jan Harvey Frances Kerry, and Bernadette baum)
Demand concerns outweigh US rate cuts buoyancy
The oil prices were not much different on Friday, after they had been lower the previous day, the day following the U.S. Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut this year due to concerns about fuel demand in America.
Brent crude futures fell 1 cent to $67.43 per barrel at 0100 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate futures dropped 4 cents to $63.53. Both benchmarks are on course to finish higher for the second consecutive week.
The Fed lowered its policy rate on Wednesday by a quarter-point and said that more cuts were coming as a response to signs of weakness within the job market.
Low borrowing costs usually boost oil demand and drive prices higher.
The market was expecting a 1 million barrel increase. However, the U.S. stockpiles of distillate increased by 4 million barrels. This raised concerns about demand and pushed prices up.
Tony Sycamore, IG's analyst, said that gains in the USD and U.S. Long-End Yields have further weakened support for crude oil.
The dollar index increased by 0.43%, reaching 97.37. It strengthened by 0.52% against the Swiss Franc to 0.793 and grew 0.67% against the Japanese yen to 147.95.
Data on the economy has also raised concerns. The latest data on jobless claims released this week showed that the U.S. labor market is softening, as both demand and supply are falling. Single-family home construction also plunged in August to a nearly 2-1/2 year low amid an oversupply of new homes.
The Russian Finance Ministry has announced a new initiative to protect the state budget against oil price fluctuations as well as Western sanctions. This will ease some supply concerns.
Daniel Hynes, an ANZ analyst, said that President Trump's statement that he prefers low prices to sanctions against Russia eased supply disruption concerns. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue; Sudarshan Varadahan)
(source: Reuters)