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Metals and oil fall to four-year lows on fears of recession

The oil market fell around 3% Monday, its lowest level since 2021. Most commodity markets also declined including metals, coffee and coffee beans as concerns about the demand for raw materials grew due to the intensifying US-China trade war.

The gold price, which reached a record high last week, fell as well amid the wider market decline.

Wall Street banks warned of a high probability of recession as President Donald Trump did not show any signs of backing down from his tariff plans.

"Commodities have been hit by these worries over growth and demand that are related to tariffs." Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. "The positions in commodities are decreasing across the board."

China responded to Trump's new tariffs by announcing that it would add an additional 34% levies on U.S. products. This confirms investor fears of a full-blown global trade war and the risk of recession.

Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures hit their lowest levels since April 2021 on Monday. Both benchmarks have fallen more than 10% in the last week.

Oil prices have dropped more than equities after Trump revealed tariff details at the end of last week. The decline was exacerbated by OPEC+'s plans to increase output, said Satoru Yushida, a commodities analyst at Rakuten Securities.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have revised their oil price forecasts downwards on Monday.

LSEG data shows that natural gas prices have also fallen on fears of recession. The benchmark Dutch front-month contract fell 1.45 euros, to 35 euros per Megawatt Hour or $11.26 for every million British Thermal Units. The contract hit its lowest intra-day level since September 2020 at 33.65 euros/MWh.

COPPER GOLD

Metals that are dependent on growth at the London Metal Exchange have also fallen.

Copper, which is used in construction and power, fell 0.4% to $8,745 on Monday, after falling 6.3% the previous day, its largest daily decline since 2020 COVID pandemic.

Early Monday morning trading was volatile, as the financial markets of China, which is the world's largest metals consumer, opened after a Friday public holiday. Copper reached $8,105 - a 17 month low - during this period of volatility before reducing losses.

Gold spot fell 0.4% last week to $3,025 after some investors sold gold to cover losses on other trades. The decline was limited by expectations of continued central bank demand, and bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut interest rates early.

The new U.S. Trade Barriers sent stock markets plummeting sharply during the second half week. "Some market observers claimed that this triggered margin calls for equity market positions and forced traders to liquidate their gold positions in order to cover them," Frank Watson, a market analyst at Kinesis Money, said.

After a steep fall in the two previous sessions, silver gained 2.2% and reached $30.2 per ounce.

Hansen, from Saxo Bank, said that traders will begin to search for relative values in items which have been sold too much. There is already some bottom fishing in silver.

CORN AND COFFEE

Chicago Board of Trade most active corn fell 0.4% at 1036 GMT to $4.58-1/4 per bushel.

One European trader stated that "Corn prices are being pulled down as a result of the general market meltdown, while the tariff match-up continues." "Any economic slowdown will be painful to demand. The Chinese tariffs should stop U.S. exports to China."

The cocoa and coffee market also faced pressure. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa exporter, faces a tariff of 21% on U.S. imports. Vietnam, the world's second largest coffee producer, faces a 46% tax.

The coffee industry was hit the hardest. Robusta fell 3% to $4,972 metric tons, after hitting a low of $4.907 for two and a half months. Arabica dropped 0.6% to $3.6335 lb., after reaching a low of $3.5550.

London cocoa futures fell 3.1% to 6,171 pounds per ton after hitting a two-week minimum of 6,104. Raw sugar SBc1> dropped 1.1% at 18,63 cents per lb. It had previously hit a month low of 18,62. Anna Hirtenstein reported from London. Additional reporting by Polina Deitt, Maytaal Angle and Susanna Twidale in London; Michael Hogan, in Hamburg; Naveen Thkral, in Singapore; Yuka Obayashi, in Tokyo. Kate Mayberry, Louise Heavens, and Mark Potter edited the article.

(source: Reuters)