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Goldman expects summertime demand to lift Brent crude to $86/bbl in Q3

A healthy growth in customer costs and strong summer demand will press the oil market to a. 1.3 million barrels each day (bpd) deficit in the 3rd quarter. and raise benchmark Brent costs to $86 a barrel, Goldman Sachs. said.

The bank cut its 2024 oil need growth forecast by 0.2. million bpd to 1.25 million bpd, but preserved that it anticipates. demand growth to be robust primarily due to jet fuel recovery.

The modest China-driven demand development downgrade for 2024. offsets a 0.1 million bpd cut to non-OPEC supply and an. assumption of greater U.S. tactical petroleum reserve purchases,. the bank stated in a note on Sunday.

Brent unrefined futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate. crude futures were trading around $79.85 and $75.74 a. barrel, respectively, by 0448 GMT on Monday.

The Wall Street bank sees Brent averaging at $84 and WTI at. $ 79 a barrel in 2024. It continues to expect Brent in $75-$ 90. range, and kept its 2025 typical price projection unchanged at $82. per barrel.

We still see a $90/bbl ceiling in our base case of no. geopolitical supply hits, and the dangers to our $75-$ 90 range as. decently to the disadvantage, Goldman said.

The bank's experts stated they see a $75/bbl flooring under. Brent as physical need for oil, including from China and the. U.S. SPR, tends to rise when costs fall.

In addition, OPEC's agreement on brand-new production standards. through 2026 signals stronger cohesion, further lowering the. likelihood of much lower costs, Goldman stated, noting that. monetary need for oil is likely to rise considerably if. currently extremely low speculative positioning stabilizes.

A normalization over 6 months in crude and products net. handled cash placing to its typical since 2022 would raise. financial need for oil by 1.5 million bpd..

(source: Reuters)