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Sources say OPEC+ will continue to increase output.
OPEC+ is likely to agree on further accelerating oil production increases at its first Saturday meeting since oil prices jumped and then retreated following Israeli and U.S. attack on Iran. Since 2022, the group that pumps half the oil in the world has curtailed production to help support the market. It reversed its course in order to gain market share this year and after U.S. president Donald Trump asked the group to pump more oil to keep gasoline prices low. Two sources familiar with the talks said that two groups may agree to increase output by up to 550,000 barrels a day in August. This is an increase from the monthly increases of 411,000 barrels a day (bpd) they approved in May, June, and July and 138,000 in April. The eight members of the group, Saudi Arabia, Russia and the UAE, Kuwait Oman, Iraq Kazakhstan and Algeria, will meet online at 9am GMT on Saturday to decide the policy for August. In April, the eight countries began to unwind their latest output cut of 2,2 million bpd. Then, in May, they increased the increases again, despite crude prices being impacted by the additional supply. The increase in production came after certain OPEC+ countries, like Kazakhstan and Iraq, exceeded their production targets, which angered other members who were still sticking to the cuts. Kazakh production returned to growth in the last month, and reached a new high. Sources have stated that OPEC+ - which is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, led by Russia - wants to increase its market share in the face of increasing supplies from other producers, such as the United States. OPEC+ announced a production increase of 1,37 million bpd from April to July. This represents 62% of the 2.2 million bpd production cut that is being unwinded. There are still other layers of reductions that total 3.66 million bpd. Reporting by OPEC Newsroom. Dmitry Zhdannikov wrote the article. Mark Potter (Editing)
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FT reports that the EU is stockpiling critical minerals in response to geopolitical threats.
Financial Times, citing an EU draft document, reported that the European Union intends to stockpile essential minerals to protect against possible supply disruptions caused by geopolitical tension. The draft said that "the EU faces a complex and deteriorating landscape of risk marked by increasing geopolitical tensions including conflict, the mounting impact of climate change, environment degradation, hybrid and cyber threats." The FT reported that the document warned of a higher-risk environment driven by "increased activities from hacktivists and cybercriminals", as well as state-sponsored groups. The European Commission didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. According to the newspaper, the draft document is still subject to changes and will be published next Monday. It states that there are "limited understandings of the essential items needed to prepare for a crisis in the context of a rapidly changing risk landscape". The European Commission released its EU Preparedness Union Strategy in March. It urged member states to increase their stockpiles and encouraged citizens to have 72 hours worth of essential supplies on hand for emergencies. The strategy aimed to prepare the EU for possible risks, such as cyberattacks, geopolitical crises and natural disasters. It also included the possibility of an armed attack against EU member states. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue, William Mallard, and Surbhi Misra from Bengaluru)
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There are at least 13 deaths in Texas flash floods; more than 20 young campers have gone missing
Authorities in Texas said that torrential rains caused deadly flash floods on the Guadalupe River, south-central Texas, Friday. At least 13 people were killed and nearly two dozen girls are reported missing after a riverside summer camp. After thunderstorms with heavy rains, the U.S. National Weather Service declared an emergency flash flood warning for certain areas of Kerr County in Texas Hill Country. This is located about 65 miles (105 kilometers) northwest of San Antonio. Dalton Rice, Kerrville's city manager, told reporters that extreme flooding hit before dawn without much or any warning. This prevented authorities from issuing evacuation orders in advance as the Guadalupe quickly rose above the major flood stage. Rice stated that "this happened very rapidly, in a very brief period of time, which could not have been predicted even by radar." "This occurred in less than two hours." State emergency management officials warned on Thursday, citing National Weather Service predictions ahead of the holiday weekends, that heavy rains would be expected in the west and central Texas "in the next few days" and could cause flash flooding. In flood-affected communities, the Fourth of July fireworks displays were canceled, including in Kerrville where the planned U.S. celebration on Friday night was to be held at the waterfront. The river was flooded by rain, and the Independence Day celebrations were submerged. Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said that 13 people had been found dead in the area due to flooding. He added, "I believe there will be many more after this thing is done." At an earlier press briefing, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick stated that six to ten bodies of adults and kids had been discovered. Some were found in cars that had washed downriver. Pray for the Missing The authorities are also searching for 23 girls who were listed as missing among over 700 children in several summer camps near the Guadalupe River. This was when floodwaters inundated the area at 4 am local time. Patrick said, "We pray that all missing people are found alive." The sheriff did not reveal whether any unaccounted-for girls at Camp Mystic – a Christian private summer camp for young women – were included in the county-wide total of deceased victims. Authorities said that all campers were otherwise safe. However, they could not evacuate the campers immediately because of high water levels. In a message to reporters, Camp Mystic’s director stated that power, water, and internet services had also been shut off. At a press conference on the disaster, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said that everyone was doing their best to rescue the children. Kelly stated that a number residential subdivisions as well as RV parks and campgrounds had been severely affected. Kelly, when asked by reporters to explain why more precautions weren't taken due to the stormy weather forecast, said that a disaster this magnitude was unforeseeable. "We get floods every day." He said that this is the most dangerous valley of the river in the United States, and added, "We didn't have any reason to think it would be as bad as what happened here." "None at all." The Texas Division of Emergency Management issued an alert on Thursday stating that it has increased the readiness of its operations centre and "activated more state emergency response resources", as west and central Texas prepare for "continued heavy rainfall and flash flood threats heading into holiday weekend". Patrick reported that the Guadalupe River rose 26 feet (8 meters) in just 45 minutes, amid the heavy rains soaking up the area. Search teams flew 14 helicopters, a dozen drones, and hundreds of emergency personnel to the area. They were also conducting rescues on the ground from trees and fast-moving water. The Llano River, which flows through Mason County adjacently, was also reported to be at flood stage. This posed "a life-threatening scenario," according to the weather service. Patrick warned of a continuing threat of flash flooding from San Antonio to Waco in the next 48 to 72 hours. Officials said that the U.S. Coast Guard, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and other personnel were mobilized to help local authorities deal with the crisis. Steve Gorman, Los Angeles (Writing and reporting; additional reporting by Ismail Shakil and Jasper Ward; Acharya Bhargav and Toronto; editing by Matthew Lewis).
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Unspecified number of deaths and missing in Texas flash flood
Local authorities report that flash floods caused by torrential rainfall and thunderstorms along the Guadalupe River, in south-central Texas on Friday killed an unknown number of people, and left many others missing. Unknown numbers of children were caught in floodwaters which swept across campgrounds. At a press conference on the disaster, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly stated that "everyone is doing their best to get these children out." Kelly stated that authorities have preliminary figures on fatalities but refused to release specific numbers until they know more about the extent of the casualties. Local media reported at least six deaths. After heavy rains of up to one foot, the U.S. National Weather Service has declared a flash flooding emergency in parts of Kerr County located in south-central Texas Hill Country about 65 miles north of San Antonio. Kerr County Sheriff's Office has reported "catastrophic floods" in the area. This resulted in "confirmed deaths and missing persons." Dalton Rice, Kerville's city manager, told reporters that the extreme flooding occurred without much or any advance warning. This prevented authorities from issuing evacuation orders. Rice stated that "this happened very rapidly, in a very brief period of time, which could not have been predicted even by radar." "This occurred in less than two hours." He said that scattered residential subdivisions and recreational vehicle parks, as well as campgrounds, were the hardest hit. Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick stated that he is working with the emergency response team of the state to coordinate the floods. "Another rainy day is predicted in these areas." Even if it is a light rain, flooding may occur. "There is a continuing threat of possible flash floods from San Antonio to Waco in the next 24-48 hours, in addition to continued risks in West and Central Texas," Patrick wrote in a social media post. Officials said that the U.S. Coast Guard, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and local authorities were all mobilized to help the local authorities deal with the crisis. Steve Gorman, Los Angeles (Writing and Reporting); Additional reporting by Ismail Shakil, Ottawa; Editing done by Matthew Lewis).
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Sources say that China is investing in the Brazil-led Global Forest Fund
Two people familiar with the negotiations said that China had signaled the Brazilian government it would invest in the Tropical Forests Forever Facility. This is a multilateral fund to conserve endangered forests all over the world. China's investment in the fund that Brazil proposed first in 2023 would be a significant shift in climate financing, which relied on funding coming from wealthy nations responsible for global warming up to this point. China's commitment could allow emerging economies to contribute to climate change mitigation financially, going beyond the requirements of the 2015 Paris Agreement that were imposed on developed countries. This new approach is being adopted as wealthy countries such as the United States back away from their ambitious pledges of funding projects to curb climate change. However, poorer nations are increasing pressure on these nations to do so as they struggle to deal with the effects of a warming climate. Last year, at the United Nations Climate Summit, leaders from developing countries criticized wealthy nations for their $300 billion annual global finance target. This was only a fraction of $1.3 trillion economists claim is needed. Sources say that Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fu'an, who met with his Brazilian counterpart Fernando Haddad, on Thursday, expressed his intention to contribute to TFFF (the Forest Fund for the Future), a fund to support the conservation of forests. The two spoke at a side meeting of finance minsters ahead of the BRICS summit, which begins in Rio de Janeiro this Sunday. One source who was present at the conversation said that Lan told Haddad that he thought the fund idea was important and that China would contribute. The discussion, however, did not include specific values. Sources say that the Brazilian government took the message of China's finance ministry as a sign that Beijing would contribute funds. However, a public announcement will not be made until the U.N. Climate Summit, COP30 in November. The Chinese embassy in Brasilia, as well as the Brazilian Finance Ministry, did not respond immediately to a comment request. Sources claim that Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva discussed the fund in May with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Brazil is also looking to attract other developing nations with rich resources, especially from the Middle East. The Brazilian government believes that the TFFF could be the main new deliverable for COP30 in Belem, an Amazonian city. Policymakers envision TFFF to be a $125 billion endowment fund that combines contributions from the private and sovereign sectors. The fund would be managed as an endowment, with countries receiving annual stipends based upon how much of their rainforests remain standing. Although sources don't expect the fund will launch at this scale, initial indications of support came from the U.K. France, Germany Norway, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates. After President Donald Trump backed out of the Paris Agreement, the initial support from the United States has evaporated. The TFFF is a good example of the growing attention being paid to the conservation of tropical forests. These forests are rich in carbon that can help combat climate change. They also protect biodiversity. (Reporting from Lisandra paraguassu, Rio de Janeiro. Writing by Manuela andreoni. Editing by Brad Haynes & Chizu Nomiyama)
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Karabakh Summit: Regional powers adopt economic integration strategy
Seven leaders from west and central Asia met on Friday and agreed to promote trade liberalisation, increase foreign investment and cooperation in green energy as a way to enhance regional economic integration. As part of its long-term strategy for development up to 2035 the Economic Cooperation Organization meeting also agreed to enhance transport connectivity in the region and restore areas that were affected by conflict. The summit was held under the theme of "A New Vision for ECO for a Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Future." Participants included the Turkish President Tayyip Erdoan, his Azerbaijani colleague Ilham Aliyev as well as Shavkat Miziyoyev from Uzbekistan, Masoud Peshkian from Iran, Sadyr Japarow, Emomali Ramon in Tajikistan, and Pakistani PM Shahbaz Sharif The roadmap builds upon ECO 2025 a previous strategy that focused on regional integration, trade, and transport. Hikmet Hajiyev, Azerbaijan's presidential aide in charge of foreign policy, said that the ECO 2035 plan expands on ECO 2025 to include digitalization, social inclusion, and green energy. Hajiyev stated that Azerbaijan intends to establish a regional centre for green energy and a transport-energy hub as part of the new framework. However, investment figures are yet to be finalised. Aliyev, in a speech, highlighted Azerbaijan as a regional hub for energy and investments, noting that $350 billion was invested in the economy of the country in the last two decades. The meeting took place in the capital city of the former Nagorno Karabakh enclave. Azerbaijan recaptured the entire enclave in 2023. Although both Armenia and Azerbaijan backed the peace treaty between their two neighbours, tensions still remain. Erdogan expressed his hope that Khankendi could in the future become a "centre for peace and development in South Caucasus." The ECO-2035 strategy will be formally adopted by the Council of Foreign Ministers of the organization in Kazakhstan, this November. (Reporting and editing by William Maclean, Nailia Bagirova)
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The UK's Lindsey refinery, which is insolvent, has secured some crude oil supply to continue running for the moment
The UK energy ministry announced on Friday that the insolvent Lindsey refinery had secured crude supplies from Glencore to prevent its immediate closure. However, a source with knowledge of the situation claimed the agreement was only limited. The refinery near the north-east coast of Britain will cease to operate if crude oil is not supplied. The energy ministry didn't respond to questions regarding how long the agreement could keep the 113,000 barrels per day refinery running. The agreement to resume oil deliveries into and out of Prax Lindsey Oil Refinery has been reached. "The Official Receiver ensures continued safe operations on the site," said a spokesperson from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. Stock levels are normal in the UK. The government announced on Monday that Lindsey, the parent company owned by its owner Prax, had fallen into insolvency. It also said that the refinery was now under the control of an official receiver. Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, said on Friday that the refinery will shut down in three weeks due to the 1.8 million barrels it currently has stored. The ministry of energy did not respond immediately to the data, but referred back to its previous statement. Glencore, the company that held the contract for crude oil deliveries to the site located in Northeastern England before its insolvency, has been in talks about the future of the deliveries. Sources familiar with the matter said that on Friday, Glencore and the government had agreed to sell the crude oil that was in storage. This doesn't include future supplies for the refinery. Glencore has declined to comment. Britain is a net importer of fuel. According to Kpler, it imported nearly 700,000 barrels per day of jet fuel and diesel on average in 2024. It exported 370,000 barrels per day, of which a third was gasoline. (Reporting and additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Robert Harvey. Jane Merriman edited the story.
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Peru intensifies its fight against illegal mining and kicks out most informal miners from the permit scheme
The Peruvian government kicked out 50,565 miners from a temporary program which allowed them to continue their operations. Minister Jorge Montero said to a local radio station that only 31,560 miner will be included in the formalization program. The government will also intensify its efforts to combat illegal mining. The government stated that at least 45,000 excluded miners have not been active in the past four years. The REINFO program was launched in 2012, and it was intended to be a temporary measure that would formalize the illegal mining. Since then, it has been extended several times and criticized as a tool to enable illegal mining. The government has tried to shut down the program. The program was met with protests, and the government announced in late June that it would be extended until 2025. The protests continue, however. There has been a blockade of parts of Peru. key copper corridor The miners demanded "unconditional legalization" earlier in the week. The temporary permit has been used by many workers to mine in areas that are prohibited or on third-party land without complying with environmental or labor regulations. According to authorities Private mining companies are also available. In the past few years, this has led to violent clashes between miners and their workers, which have resulted in dozens of deaths. Even President Dina Boluarte was forced to intervene. Temporarily suspend mining After 13 gold miners were kidnapped, and murdered in the north of the country.
Oil gains 1% on hopes of firmer demand
Oil rates settled about 1%. greater on Friday, with international benchmark Brent crude recording. its very first weekly gain in three weeks, after economic indications. from the world's leading two oil consumers China and the U.S. boosted wish for higher demand.
Brent settled 71 cents higher, or 0.9%, at $83.98 a. barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) gained. 83 cents, or 1.1%, to $80.06.
For the week, Brent acquired about 1%, while WTI rose 2%.
China's commercial output rose 6.7% year-on-year in April as. a healing in its production sector collected rate, pointing. to potentially stronger need to come. China likewise announced major. actions to stabilise its crisis-hit residential or commercial property sector.
The Chinese figures showed prospective for need building. and supported oil rates, stated Bob Yawger, director of energy. futures at Mizuho. Nevertheless, government information revealing a drop in. China's annual refined output may have balanced out that support.
Decreases in oil and fine-tuned item stocks at international. trading centers have actually likewise created optimism about need, reversing. a pattern of increasing stockpiles that had taxed crude. oil prices in previous weeks.
The U.S. oil well count rose by one this week to 497, the. first boost in four weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes. stated.
Current U.S. financial signs have actually fed into the optimism. over worldwide need for oil. U.S. consumer rates rose less than. anticipated in April, information showed on Wednesday, improving. expectations of lower rate of interest.
Customer rates were not as bad as expected, stated Tim. Snyder, economic expert at Matador Economics. It gave the U.S. a. little bit of a boost.
Lower U.S. rates of interest might assist soften the dollar,. which would make greenback-denominated oil less expensive for buyers. holding other currencies.
On the other hand, a fire began at Russia's Tuapse oil refinery. overnight after a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks. The level of. the damage was unclear.
On the supply side, financiers were mainly trying to find. instructions from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on June 1.
With the cost of Brent crude hovering below $90, a level. quietly being targeted by Saudi Arabia and others, the upcoming. OPEC+ meeting is likely to result in a rollover of current. production cuts, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen stated in a note.
Cash supervisors raised their net long U.S. crude futures and. choices positions in the week to May 14, the U.S. Commodity. Futures Trading Commission
(source: Reuters)