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Gold prices rise ahead of Fed rate-cut decision and key US employment data
Gold rose on Tuesday as traders were optimistic about the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. They also looked forward to the U.S. Job Openings Report, which will provide further insight into the strength of the labor market. Gold spot rose by 0.1%, to $4.193.14 an ounce at 0922 am. ET (14.22 GMT), having fallen to its lowest levels since December 2. U.S. gold futures for delivery in February also increased by 0.1%, to $4,222.20 an ounce. Gold is expected to rise by a further?25 basis-points, which is generally a bullish sign. Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that the market is still strong and could reach new highs following the Fed's announcement. Today, the Fed begins its two-day meeting on policy. The Fed will make a final decision by Wednesday. New data shows that inflation is stubbornly above the Fed's target of 2%, and secondary indicators suggest the once-red hot labor market has cooled in certain sectors. The traders now expect a cut of 25 basis points this week. Investors will also be watching for the release of the October JOLTS report at 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday to gauge?labour market conditions. The October JOLTS Report will be released at 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday to assess the?labour markets conditions. If the job openings report is softer-than-expected, gold could rally, Haberkorn said. Silver rose 1.1% to $58,78 an ounce, nearing the record high of $59.32. Historically, we have gone lower than 40 ounces. Maria Smirnova is the chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management. In order to purchase an ounce gold, you need 71 ounces silver. The October figure was 82 ounces. Smirnova continued, "Metals have a volatile nature. But unless we address the deficit, there is only one direction for silver, which is up." Palladium increased 0.6%, to $1474.28/oz. Platinum rose 0.1%, to $1646.03/oz. (Reporting and editing by Vijay Kishore in Bengaluru, with Sarah Qureshi reporting from Bengaluru.
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Tinubu approved Tinubu's troops deployment to Benin Republic following coup attempt
The Senate of Nigeria approved President Bola Tinubu’s deployment of troops to Benin Republic on Tuesday after Benin’s government asked for assistance from its larger neighbour on Sunday. Tinubu wrote to legislators that Benin had requested "exceptional and urgent air support" from Nigerian armed forces following a report of an "attempted unconstitutional seizure and disruption of democratic institution." According to Nigerian law?the president is required to seek Senate approval before deploying troops into a foreign country. Benin's Government said on Monday that Nigerian fighter jets carried out airstrikes in order to?thwart an attempted coup by mutinying troops who tried to seize President Patrice Talon. Tinubu emphasized Nigeria's commitment towards regional security, its "close ties of friendship and brotherhood" with Benin as well as the principles upheld by Economic Community of West African States. Tinubu urged legislators to act "immediately"?to support stability in Benin. Benin shares a 700-kilometer border with Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation. Omar Alieu Touray, the President of ECOWAS Commission, said that the bloc was facing a number of problems, such as coups and jihadist attacks. Touray said at a meeting of the ECOWAS Mediation and Security Council?in Abuja that it was safe to declare a'state of emergency' in our community. ECOWAS has deployed its standby force to Benin after it condemned the attempted takeover of power in the West African nation. (Reporting and writing by Camillus Eboh, Chijioke Ahuocha, Editing by Hugh Lawson).
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Three people are charged in Kosovo for a canal explosion that threatened power plants
Kosovo's state prosecutor announced on Tuesday that three suspects were charged over a?explosion? last year in a water 'canal' supplying the 'two main' 'power plants of the country. In a press release, the statement said that the suspects had allegedly detonated TNT in the canal. This caused damage to the concrete structure of the canal and cut off drinking water. It also disrupted the cooling system for coal-fired plants. Fears of a possible power outage were raised. The three men were identified by their initials: J.V. D.V. and I.D. They face charges including endangering constitutional order, terroristism, and espionage. Sources at the prosecutor’s office said that all three men were ethnic Serbs, and had already been arrested. The prosecutor said that J.V. is a suspect who 'works for Serbia Military Intelligence Service. Belgrade has denied the claim that Serbia orchestrated the explosion. The blast occurred in Kosovo's volatile north, where the majority of residents are ethnic Serbs, who reject Kosovo's 2008 independence declaration. The Kosovo Police have increased patrols near the canal. (Reporting and editing by Ros Russell, Fatos Bytyci)
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Argentina will lower its grain export taxes and boost the farm sector's support for Milei
The economy minister announced on Tuesday that Argentina would lower export taxes for grains, including soybeans and corn. This move will be welcomed by the farming sector, which has been one of Javier Milei's strongest supporters. Milei, who is running for president, has promised Argentine exporters he will cut?taxes. However, he warned him that he would have to do this in stages in order to avoid a sudden?decrease in tax revenue. In a blog post, Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced that the levy on exports of soybeans would be reduced to 24%, from 26%. Byproducts of soybeans will now be taxed 22.5% instead, compared to?24.5%. Export levies on soybeans and byproducts of soybeans were 33% at the start of Milei's tenure, around two years ago. Argentina is one of the largest soybean oil and meal exporters in the world. It's also the third-largest exporter for corn and a major global supplier of wheat. Export taxes for wheat, barley and corn will be cut from 9.5% to 7.5%. Caputo stated that "today, we are taking a step forward in the direction of tax relief for agriculture. We will be moving ahead on a permanent reduction of export duties on grain and byproduct chains." A source in the Argentine govt. said that the measure would take effect once it was published in the Official Gazette of the country in the next few days. Gustavo Idigoras of CIARA, the chamber of grain exporters and 'processors, said that the agricultural sector "valued" the decision. He said that it was important to keep making progress in reducing tariffs. The local farmer's confederation CRA also welcomed the measure. Carlos Castagnani, its president, said that it was "a first step to restore profitability in the sector". Reporting by Aida Pelaez-Fernandez, Maximilian Heath and Mark Potter; editing by Gabriel Araujo and Jan Harvey
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Standard Lithium JV attracts over $1 billion of funding interest for Arkansas Project
Smackover Lithium, the joint venture between Standard Lithium and Equinor announced on Tuesday that it had attracted more than $1 billion of financing interest for its southwest Arkansas Lithium project. Three export credit agencies including EXIM, Export Finance Norway and Export Finance Sweden have expressed interest in providing debt financing to the project. Standard Lithium's U.S. listed shares rose 5% during premarket trading. The joint venture seeks up to $1.1billion in senior secured debt for the majority of the $1.45billion cost of constructing the first phase of the project. Export credit agencies would provide loans and guarantees, while commercial banks would also add debt. Standard Lithium was awarded a grant of $225 million by the United States earlier this year. Department of Energy has given Standard Lithium a boost in its competition with Exxon Mobil for the title of first lithium producer in Arkansas, where one of North America’s largest deposits of battery metal is located. The?joint-venture, formed in May 2024 is developing direct lithium extraction projects, in which Standard Lithium holds 55% of the shares and operates the projects, and Equinor the remaining 45%. (Reporting and editing by Sriraj Kalluvila in Bengaluru)
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Tusk: EU approves state aid to Poland's first nucleus plant
Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, said that the European Commission had agreed to allow Poland to provide state aid for the construction a?country's?first nuclear power plant. In a press release, the European Commission confirmed that it had approved state aid. Westinghouse Electric was chosen by Poland to build its first nuclear plant on the Baltic Sea Coast. Poland plans to start construction on the first unit in 2028, and complete it by 2036. Tusk stated that "we will have a confirmation soon" from the European Commission that it is willing to provide state aids for the construction in Poland of a nuclear plant. We have received the entire amount of funding, which is 60 billion zlotys (16.51 billion dollars). The first 4.6 billion zlotys of treasury bonds will be delivered to the interested party in December, i.e. this year. Tusk said that the European Commission’s approval was necessary for the launch of?the Polish nuclear programme. He said: "We'll?indeed? be able? to begin construction? with enough momentum so that?electricity? from the first nuclear plant in Poland? can flow as soon as possible?."
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Critical Metals and Romania's FPCU partner to establish rare earth processing facility
Critical Metals announced on Tuesday that it would form a joint-venture with FPCU, a Romanian company. The two companies will set up a facility to process 'rare earth minerals' from the Tanbreez mine of Critical Metals. In premarket trading, shares of the company increased by 4%. The company has said that it will supply half of the Tanbreez Project's?rare-earth concentrates to the Romanian joint venture for the entire?lifespan?of the mine, at "mutually agreeable competitive market terms". Tanbreez is a critical project as it provides an alternative source for heavy rare earths, which are vital to the production of electric vehicles, windmills, and defense. Western nations are working to reduce their dependence on China to obtain these essential resources. The Romanian facility will help create a supply chain focused on Europe for rare earths. This will reduce the region's dependence on China, who dominates more than 80% global processing. Tony Sage, CEO of Critical Metals, said: "We are not simply building a facility - we are dismantling China's stranglehold over rare earths. We will empower Europe with secure supplies." The company said that the plant would produce aerospace and military magnets. The company announced in October that it would raise $50m through a private investment in public equity deal (PIPE) with an institutional investor in order to develop its Tanbreez Rare Earth Deposit in Greenland. (Reporting and editing by Katha Kaalia in Bengaluru)
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Russell: China's steel exports are up, but its aluminium shipments are down.
Exports of Chinese steel products are surging this year as the domestic market, particularly in property development, is slumping. However, those of aluminum have fallen due to increased activity in the manufacturing and energy sectors. China is the largest producer of steel and aluminum in the world. Beijing has set informal ceilings for production in both sectors in order to'rein in the overcapacity. Informally, steel production is limited to no more than 1.005 billion tons of previous year. Given that production for the first ten months of this year was 817.87 millions tons, 2025 production will likely dip below 1 billion tonnes, which would be the first time since 2019. Steel mills are trying to compensate for the soft demand by increasing exports. Customs data released Monday shows that China's steel exports rose 6.7% in the first eleven months of this year, to 107.72 millions tons. If December exports are on par with the average of the year, then China's steel shipment will be around 117 million tons. This would be a record, surpassing the 112,39 million tons in 2015. Steel mills are currently able to benefit from exports as domestic prices have been near their lowest levels in five years. On Monday, Shanghai exchange rebar ended?at $312 yuan (about $442.43) a ton, after trading mostly sideways, since the low of 3012 yuan that was hit early June. Chinese steel is priced competitively against other benchmarks. LME contracts for?Turkish Rebar ended at $560.50 per ton last Thursday. China has been able to increase steel exports, despite the fact that several countries have placed tariffs on imports to protect domestic producers. Buying cheaper Chinese steel is a good idea, as much of China's production goes to other Asian nations, particularly those with limited steel production. ALUMINIUM SLUMP China's exports of refined aluminum and its products, which have fallen by 9.2% in the first 11 month of the year, totalled 5.59 million tonnes. China's aluminum production is expected to be very close to its 45 million ton limit, with more metal needed for the country's manufacturing sector and energy sector. Loss of Chinese aluminum on global markets pushed benchmark London prices to $2,920 per ton in December 5th. This was the highest price since May 2022. The contract has increased by 27% from its early April 2025 low price of $2,300. The rising prices of energy have helped Western smelters who have been struggling to stay competitive over the past few years. This is especially true for those based in Europe and Australia. Beijing's annual aluminum output cap of?45million tons will likely tighten the global supply in 2026. It is a question of whether China's steel industry will follow the footsteps of aluminium. It will depend on the speed of recovery in domestic demand if Beijing limits annual steel production at a maximum 1 billion tons. So long as the construction industry is a drag on China's economy, steel mills are likely to continue trying to export their way into profitability or reduce capacity by retiring old furnaces. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
World shares cheer China data, as central banks line up
World shares firmed on Monday as Chinese information beat expectations, while financiers looked to browse a minefield of reserve bank conferences this week that could see the end of free money in Japan and a slower move course for U.S. rate cuts.
European stocks ticked up 0.1% at the open, increasing in parallel with MSCI's broadest index of stocks , which was up 0.2% by 0810 GMT.
China reported industrial output climbed a yearly 7% over January and February, while retail sales rose 5.5% on a year previously. But real estate remained a concern as residential or commercial property financial investment fell 9% on the year, underlining the case for more policy support.
Japan's Nikkei closed up 2.7%, while Shanghai's blue chip index ended up about 1%.
Central banks in the United States, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Norway, Australia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Turkey, Brazil and Mexico all meet this week and, while numerous are anticipated to hold steady, there is lots of scope for surprises.
Tuesday could see Japan end the longest run of unfavorable interest rates in history, after its companies picked the greatest pay hikes in 33 years.
There is an opportunity the Bank of Japan might wait for its April meeting, provided it will be releasing upgraded economic forecasts .
For Japan, a measured and gradual course of policy normalisation appears proper for an economy unaccustomed to greater rates and therefore the policy messaging will be crucial, said Carl Ang, a fixed income analyst at MFS Investment Management.
Markets likewise assume the BOJ will hike at a snail's pace and have a rate of 0.27% priced in by December, compared to the existing -0.1%.
The reserve bank on Monday stated it would conduct an unscheduled operation to buy bonds, presumably to avoid any substantial rise in yields and prevent market volatility.
That might have contributed to headwinds pushing the yen lower last week, with the dollar up at 149.12 yen. The euro stood at $1.0894 by 0841 GMT, having relieved 0.5% last week and away from a top of $1.0963.
S&P 500 futures included 0.3% and Nasdaq futures 0.6%, with tension structure ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.
COUNTING THE DOTS
The Fed is considered particular to keep rates at 5.25-5.5%,. There is a possibility it might indicate a higher-for-longer. outlook on policy, offered the stickiness of inflation at both. customer and producer levels.
Current U.S. information suggest progressive steps towards increasing. inflation risks, Dana Malas, a strategist at SEB Bank, said in. a note.
That the roadway to 2% would be straight is wishful thinking;. obstacles are unavoidable. Disinflationary forces are still. stronger than inflationary pressures, she stated.
The Fed is likewise expected this week to start speaking about. how it might slow the speed of its bond sales, maybe halving it. to $30 billion a month.
Bonds might do with the assistance given the damage done by a. run of uncomfortably high inflation readings. Two-year Treasury. yields are up at 4.71%, having climbed 24 basis. points recently, while 10-year yields stood at. 4.306%.
The possibility of a rate cut as early as June has. dropped to 56%, from 75% a week earlier, and the market has just. 72 basis points of reducing priced in for 2024 compared to more. than 140 basis points a month earlier.
The Bank of England fulfills on Thursday and is expected to. keep rates at 5.25% as wage growth cools, while markets see some. opportunity the Swiss National Bank may ease today.
The ascent in the dollar and yields took some shine off. gold, which eased to $2,152.59 an ounce, having fallen 1%. recently and away from all-time highs.
Oil rates have had a better follow the International. Energy Agency raised its view on 2024 oil demand, while the. supply outlook was clouded by Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil. refineries.
Brent added 63 cents to $85.97 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 70 cents to $81.74 per barrel.
(source: Reuters)