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QUOTES-Markets react after Trump announces 50% copper tariff
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he would announce 50% tariffs on copper imports. This sent U.S. Comex Copper Futures to a record-high of more than 12%. The announcement marked the end of a long-running arbitrage that had drew metal from the global markets. Prices fell on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and London Metal Exchange. Here is the reaction of analysts and smelters from Asia. GOLDMAN SACHES HAS ANALYSTS As with previous tariffs this higher initial rate of tariff could be used to negotiate, then concessions or exemptions can follow. We expect an increase in shipments to the U.S. over the next few weeks due to the increased incentive for companies to get ahead of the tariff implementation. We maintain our Dec-25 LME Copper Price Forecast at $9,700. However, we now see a lower risk of the price rising above $10,000 in the 3Q. ANALYSTS AT CITI Our base case now is a headline Section 232 Copper Import Levy of 50%. We adjust our expectations that the COMEX/LME arb will be priced at 25-35% LME, or $2,300 - $3300/t compared to 15-20% previously. The drawdown of excess copper based in the United States could completely replace the imports of refined copper from the United States for the rest of 2025. ZHAO YONGCHENG ANALYST BENCHMARK MINERAL INTELLIGENCE The SHFE copper prices are under pressure at the moment, but will rebound once the U.S. tariffs on copper are finalized. Fundamentals remain tight in the near-term. The widening differential in price between COMEX & LME will encourage trading arbitrage, preventing the price from dropping more. Overall, the downside risk is higher in near-term." MATT HUANG ANALYST, BRANDS FINANCIAL "In the short term, the spot metal market will get a boost: Deliverable metals from South America are in high demand, driving premiums up. "Chinese holders of physical copper will still be able to rush shipments into the U.S. but the arrivals following them are likely to sit on the sidelines and let premiums slide back." Once the tariff is in place, the 'vacuum of demand' from the U.S. will diminish, and the outlook for LME/SHFE will turn negative. MARCUS GARVEY HEAD OF COMMODITIES STRATEGY MACQUARIE The loss of an arbitrageable physical price difference between CME-LME copper will result in a fall in U.S. import demand from the current 200kt/mth to something closer 30kt/mth. This should continue for several months, as excess inventories are reduced in the U.S. The CME-LME spread would not be required to incentivise marginal spot flows because of the surplus inventories in the U.S. MICHAEL WU ANALYST SHANGHAI METAL MARKET There is little time left before the deadline for shipments to the U.S., so shipments from Latin America may be the only ones that can make it." A CHINESE SMELTER MANAGER After U.S. tariffs are implemented, copper will flow into China and other countries. Prices will then return to normal fundamentals.
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Kommersant reports that 'Fortress Russia has confiscated 50 billion dollars in assets over the past three years'
The Kommersant newspaper reported that Russia confiscated assets valued at 3.9 trillion Russian roubles (or around $50 billion based on current exchange rates) over the last three years. This highlights the extent of the transformation to a "fortress Russia' economic model. Since Russia's troops entered Ukraine in February 20, 2022, foreign companies have faced the threat of state seizing their assets. However, Moscow has been increasingly focused on domestic assets, citing domestic security and strategic stability. Kommersant, a respected newspaper in Russia, stated that the size of asset seizures calculated by NSP Law Firm shows how Russia has moved from a relatively "open" economy to a fortress model. Kommersant reported that the law firm advised clients to eliminate any weak points in their business, such as second passports and economic ties to countries Russia considers "unfriendly", which is to say, all of Western Europe. Kommersant also said that owners should consider doing business with partners who are state-owned. Kommersant reported that assets worth 1.54 trillion rubles were seized in accordance with the law on strategic corporations. Another 1.07 trillion roubles was seized due to allegations of corruption, 385 billion on suspected privatisation violations, and 621,5 billion roubles for claims of poor management. In the 1990s, the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 sparked hopes that Russia would become a free-market economy. However, widespread corruption, economic turmoil, and crime undermined the confidence in democratic capitalism. In his first eight-year tenure, President Vladimir Putin supported economic freedoms and targeted some oligarchs. He also presided over significant growth in the economy, which grew to $1.8 trillion by 2008, from $200 billion. According to the International Monetary Fund, between 2008 and 2022, the economy reached $2.3 trillion. However, Western sanctions were a major factor after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. According to IMF data, the nominal dollar value of the Russian economy in 2024 is only $2.2 trillion.
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Kongsberg orders increase by 5% as the company expands its defence capacity to meet demand
The Norwegian defence manufacturer Kongsberg Gruppen announced on Wednesday that it had received more orders for the second quarter 2025, which reflects an increase in military spending by European nations. Kongsberg has customers from the defence, aerospace and maritime industries. It also serves energy, fishing, and the energy industry. Geir Haiy, CEO of the company, said in a press release that "there is a need to enhance defence capabilities and we are expanding capacity to meet growing demand." In response to Russia's invasion in Ukraine, and the threat by President Donald Trump to reduce military support to the region, many European nations have committed to increase their defence budgets significantly. Haoy stated that the company was experiencing record market activity. In the third quarter, 54% of orders were received by its Defence & Aerospace division. Kongsberg stated that there was a high level of activity in relation to the delivery of subsea technologies and solutions. The company's earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which is the quarterly profit before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortisation, rose by 28% to 2,33 billion Norwegian crowns. LSEG polled five analysts who expected an average of 2.25 billion Norwegian crowns. Orders and profits for the group also soared in the first quarter, boosted by Europe’s defence spending. $1 = 10.0974 Norwegian crowns (Reporting and editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak, Gdansk)
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Copper prices fall outside US after Trump's 50% tariff
The London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a drop in copper prices on Wednesday, as the announcement of U.S. tariffs on copper signaled the end of a long-running arbitrage trade which had pulled the metal from the global markets. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he would announce 50% tariffs on copper. U.S. Comex Copper futures rose more than 12%, reaching a new record high. The U.S. Commerce Department's Howard Lutnick announced shortly after that the copper tariffs were likely to be implemented by the end or August 1 of this year. The announcement was like a thunderous boom in the middle night. A 50% tariff is higher than expected. Since the announcement of the tariff investigation in February, traders from around the world have sent copper to the U.S. as they anticipated higher prices. Comex inventories have reached their highest level since last year. The days of this trade are numbered, given the short time left to move the copper before the deadline. This could potentially lead to a release of supply from outside the U.S. Prices reflected a shift in the market. In the wake of a Comex record, the LME three-month contract for copper fell by 1.2%, to $9,675 a metric ton, at 0346 GMT. The most traded copper contract on SHFE also dropped 1.1%, to 78.580 yuan (10,944.29) per ton. Michael Wu, an analyst for copper at the Shanghai Metals Market said that there are few buyers in Asia who want to deliver copper to the U.S. given the short time left before the deadline. He added that the only shipments likely to meet the deadline will be those from Latin America. LME nickel dropped 0.5% to $14,965 per ton. Lead fell 0.6% to $2,000, while tin eased by 0.2% to $33,370. Zinc was down 0.4% to $2709 and aluminium was down 0.5% to $2574. SHFE nickel dropped 1.4% to 118.960 yuan per ton. Lead gained 0.5% at 17,195 yuan. Zinc was unchanged at 22,010, aluminium rose 0.2% to 20.525 yuan and tin increased 0.2% to 264.880 yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories.
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A flash flood in a New Mexico resort town traps many in their homes and vehicles
A state official reported that flash flooding in New Mexico caused by monsoon rains trapped dozens in their homes and vehicles around Ruidoso, a mountain resort village. The floods also swept an entire home away. The house was ripped apart from its foundations and careened through the brown, muddy water of the flood-engorged Rio Ruidoso. It smashed trees on the way. "I have seen the video." Danielle Silva, spokesperson for New Mexico Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management said: "We don't know who was inside the house." No immediate reports of death or injury from Tuesday's floodwaters have been confirmed. Silva reported that emergency teams, pre-positioned in Ruidoso by local law enforcement, and the National Guard, conducted at least 85 rapid-water rescues, including many victims who had been stranded by flooding in their homes and cars. Silva reported that the river rose quickly to a record-breaking 20.24 feet (6.22 metres) during the flood of late afternoon. As the floodwaters started to recede, the authorities began searching through the debris for survivors. She said that the intensity of the debris flow had been heightened by the charred landscape that was left by the wildfires that swept through the area in June last year, and the subsequent flooding that eroded soil. Ruidoso, a popular ski resort and summer getaway in south-central New Mexico's Sierra Blanca range is located about 115 miles south of Albuquerque. The latest flooding occurred in Texas Hill Country four days after a flash flood caused by torrential rainfall along the Guadalupe River devastated a large area of Texas Hill Country. At least 109 people were killed and scores more are still missing. Reporting by Steve Gorman, Los Angeles; editing by Michael Perry
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Investors await clarity on tariffs, which has led to a drop in oil prices from their two-week highs
The oil prices fell on Wednesday, after reaching two-week highs the previous day. Investors were waiting for new developments regarding U.S. Tariffs and the expectation of rising crude stocks in the United States. Brent crude futures fell 7 cents or 0.1% to $70.08 per barrel at 0400 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 8 cents or 0.1% to $68.25 per barrel. The latest delay in tariffs by U.S. president Donald Trump gave some hope to the major trading partners Japan, South Korea, and the European Union, that deals could be reached to reduce duties. However, it left some smaller exporters, such as South Africa, confused and without clarity about the way forward. Trump has pushed the previous deadline of Wednesday back to August 1. He declared on Tuesday that "no extensions will be granted." Trump said he will impose a tariff of 50% on imported copper, and introduce levies that have been threatened for years on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. This will intensify a trade conflict that has roiled markets around the world. Priyanka Sackdeva, a senior analyst at Phillip Nova, said: "Investors constantly deal with 'tariff headlines' and their potential impact on global trade." "... "... While there was a strong demand for travel during the U.S. holiday on July 4, industry data showed that crude inventories in the U.S. could have increased by around 7.1m barrels. Fuel products' stock levels were also lower. In a note to clients, ING analysts said that the API numbers overnight were negative for oil. They added that "changes made in refined products have been more positive". The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release official data at 1430 GMT today. The Energy Information Administration said in its monthly report on Tuesday that the U.S. would produce less oil than expected in 2025 due to the lower oil prices this year. In its report on short-term energy outlook, the EIA stated that it expects to see 13.37 million barrels of oil produced per day by 2025. This is a decrease from last month's prediction of 13.42 millions bpd.
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Scientists estimate that the European heatwave has caused 2300 deaths.
According to a rapid analysis of the scientific literature published on Wednesday, around 2,300 people in 12 European cities died from heat-related causes during the severe heatwave which ended last week. The study focused on the 10 days ending July 2 when temperatures in large parts of Western Europe reached 40 degrees Celsius. According to a study by Imperial College London and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, of the estimated 2,300 deaths during this time period, 1,500 were linked to climate changes, which caused the heatwave to be more severe. Climate change has made the world significantly hotter, making it more dangerous, said Dr Ben Clarke. He is a researcher from Imperial College London. Researchers found that climate change has increased temperatures in 12 cities, including Barcelona, Madrid and London, by as much as 4 degrees Celsius. Researchers used epidemiological models to estimate death rates. This includes deaths that were caused by heat, as well as deaths in which pre-existing conditions were exacerbated. Scientists said that they used peer reviewed methods to quickly estimate the death toll because most heat related deaths are not reported officially and some governments don't release this data. In a bulletin published on Wednesday, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service stated that June 2018 was the third hottest month on record for the planet, after the same months in 2024, and 2023. Copernicus reported that Western Europe had its warmest month on record in June. Much of the region experienced "very strong heat-stress" conditions, defined as temperatures of 38 degrees Celsius and above. Samantha Burgess is the strategic lead at Copernicus for climate. She said: "Heatwaves will become more intense, frequent and affect more people in Europe as a result of global warming." According to new research from European health institutions, researchers in 2023 reported that up to 61,000 people could have died during Europe's scorching heatwaves of 2022. This suggests the countries' efforts in heat preparedness are failing fatally. Over time, the average temperature of the Earth has risen due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These emissions are mainly caused by the burning fossil fuels. The increase in the baseline temperature means that temperatures can soar higher during a heatwave.
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Rem Offshore's Zero-Emission Subsea Construction Vessel Hits Water (Video)
Norwegian shipowner Rem Offshore has launched the hull for its dual-fuel methanol energy subsea construction vessel (ESCV) Rem Pioneer in Vietnam, months ahead of schedule.The launch ceremony was held on June 27 at Song Cam shipyard in Vietnam.According to the company, hull construction will continue for a while, and outfitting will begin in the autumn at Myklebust Verft.Rem Pioneer ESCV will be delivered in 2026 and will be the first of its kind that can perform heavy construction work in both offshore wind and subsea with net zero emissions.The newbuild uses a number of solutions where energy consumption is almost halved compared to comparable tonnage in today’s market, as well as meeting future requirements for zero emissions from end to end, according to the company.The vessel will be equipped with dual-fuel methanol engines in combination with battery packs.All offshore lifting equipment, including the 250 T crane, is electric and regenerates power to the batteries.The working deck is over 1,400 m2, and it is also prepared for the installation of an offshore gangway for use in offshore wind.Rem Pioneer will be able to accommodates 120 persons.
Oil traders sanguine about dangers from Israel-Iran dispute: Kemp
Petroleum costs have fallen following Iran's missile and drone attack on Israel, confounding expectations that the escalation of the shadow war would cause them to rise.
Like major commercial mishaps, extreme moves in oil spikes, slumps or rates, are constantly the item of several elements instead of a single cause.
Spikes generally happen when the business cycle is fully grown; inventories are well below typical; extra production capacity is low; and there is a real or threatened disruption to production.
In this instance, nevertheless, the escalation is happening in a. market that is otherwise conveniently provided, with inventories. near the long-lasting average and lots of idle production. capability.
Traders have actually concluded Iran will not run the risk of any disruption of. its exports; the United States will not run the risk of substantially. higher oil rates in an election year; and the United States. will restrain the next round of reactions by Israel.
As understandings about the war danger have actually fallen, prices and. calendar spreads have actually pulled back to pre-crisis levels, with the. underlying fundamentals of production, consumption and. inventories reasserting themselves.
SHOCK ABSORBERS
Industrial inventories of petroleum and fine-tuned items. throughout the advanced economies in the Organisation for Economic. Cooperation and Development (OECD) were approximated at around. 2,735 million barrels in March.
Commercial stocks were around 95 million barrels (-3%. or -0.61 standard deviations) listed below the prior 10-year seasonal. average, based on an analysis of data from the U.S. Energy. Info Administration (EIA).
The deficit had actually increased from 51 million barrels (2% or. -0.34 standard variances) in December 2023 however was just very. When it stood at 74 million, somewhat larger than a year ago. barrels (-3% or -0.44 basic variances).
The worldwide market is tightening, however gradually, and. stocks are still reasonably comfy, able to take in any. short-term interruptions of production.
Chartbook: Worldwide oil stocks and prices
Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members in the Middle East were. approximated to have more than 4 million barrels per day of idled. production capacity in March, according to the EIA.
Unused capacity was at the highest level because the. coronavirus pandemic in 2020-2021 and before that the economic downturn. following the monetary crisis in 2009-2011.
With comfortable stocks and a lot of extra capacity,. the market did not appear primed for a big and sustained spike. in prices.
Production outside OPEC? is expected to grow strongly this. year, especially in the United States, Canada, Guyana and. Brazil, enough to cover the boost in intake in 2024.
Strong production development is most likely to make sure that. stocks stay fairly comfy in all but the most. extreme situations about conflict in the Middle East.
PRICES AND SPREADS
Inflation-adjusted front-month Brent futures prices balanced. $ 85 per barrel in March, putting them nearly precisely in line. with the long-lasting average since 2000.
The futures market had currently moved into an aggressive. backwardation, with the front-month agreement trading at an. average premium of practically $4 per barrel compared to the. contract for shipment six months later on.
The backwardation remained in the 91st percentile, implying. traders anticipated inventories to deplete even more in the near. term, however with materials expected to remain comfy in the. longer term.
Saudi Arabia and its OPEC? allies are expected to maintain. production cuts through June 2024 to deplete stocks even more. and support costs before slowly increasing output in the. second half and into 2025.
U.S. OIL INVENTORIES
In contrast to the rest of the world, where information on. stocks is only readily available with a delay of several months, if. at all, in the United States the EIA releases stock data with a. lag of less than a week.
With some justification, traders tend to use high-frequency. data on U.S. stocks as a proxy for the. production-consumption balance in the wider global market.
U.S. industrial crude inventories were practically precisely in. line with the previous 10-year seasonal average on April 12, and. there has actually been really little net change over the last 3. months.
Inventories around the shipment point for the NYMEX futures. contract at Cushing in Oklahoma were 13 million barrels (-29% or. -0.88 basic discrepancies) below the ten-year seasonal average.
The deficit discusses the strong backwardation in both U.S. crude and Brent futures costs, but it has been narrowing over. the last 3 months.
U.S. commercial crude inventories follow a. market just a little tighter than the long term average, not the. sort of conditions that precede a large and sustained spike in. prices.
NO CATASTROPHISING
The cycle of retaliation between Iran and Israel has. prospective for unrestrained escalation, as each federal government tries. to bring back deterrence and demonstrate willpower to domestic and. worldwide audiences.
The conflict might intensify to the point it interrupts. production and tanker traffic from Iran and other countries. around the Gulf. Traders are not neglecting the threat, but dealing with. it as a less-likely tail risk, rather than a central scenario.
Declining to catastrophise about loss of Iranian oil. production and closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reasonable offered. How many times these severe circumstances have been anticipated. stopped working to materialise over the last thirty years.
The risk of a sudden loss of production and exports is not. absolutely no, but nor is it high sufficient to need costs to rise. greatly to restrain consumption, construct even bigger inventories. and produce more extra capacity to mitigate it.
Unless and until the threat to Gulf production and exports. becomes more concrete, rather than just perennial speculation,. current rates and spreads look constant with a market that is. only moderately tighter than normal.
Associated column:
- Oil traders anticipate stocks to fall substantially after OPEC. extends cuts (March 21, 2024)
- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps rates under. pressure (March 1, 2024)
- Western Hemisphere oil output rises, with a helping hand. from OPEC (February 21, 2024)
- Why the oil market declines to catastrophise (January 18,. 2024)
John Kemp is a market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)