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Industry group claims that China's coal imports may drop up to 100,000,000 tons by 2025.

An official from a major industry association said that China's coal exports could fall by as much as 100 million metric tonnes in 2025. This could put global benchmark prices, which are already at multi-year-lows, under even more pressure.

The world's biggest consumer, producer and importer of fossil fuels increased imports to a new record of 542.7 millions metric tons by 2024 as lower international prices prompted buyers to substitute imported coal for domestic supply.

Xuegang Li (Vice President of China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association) told Coaltrans China on Wednesday that imports could drop by between 50 and 100 million tons.

Official data revealed that imports fell by 8% in the five-month period ending May. The decline in 100 million tons would be equivalent to an annual drop of 18.4%.

Li did not indicate how much he anticipated thermal coal and steelmaking coal imports to drop. Thermal coal is used primarily in power generation while metallurgical is used for steelmaking.

China's increasing dependence on thermal coal has been reduced as a result of the rising output from renewable sources. Thermal coal accounts for the majority of the coal consumed in the second largest economy.

Li added that China's coal consumption would peak in 2027 or 2028. The time period for near-peak levels of consumption will be spread over three to five year. (Reporting and writing by Sam Li and Lewis Jackson; editing by Himani Sarkar, Rachna uppal and Sudarshan Varadhan)

(source: Reuters)