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Carbon tax and Iceland's outage threaten to cause panic among EU aluminium buyers

After an outage in Iceland at a major smelter, European importers of aluminium are scrambling to secure supplies before the new carbon tax is implemented. This has pushed premiums up to their highest level in nine months.

The European Aluminium Duty-paid Premium, which buyers pay on the physical market over the London Metal Exchange to cover taxes and freight, is currently $324 per ton. On November 3, it reached $330, the highest level since late January.

Due to electrical failure, the 320,000-ton per year Grundartangi Smelter, owned by Century Aluminum in Iceland, reduced production by two thirds at the end of October.

Century CEO Jesse Gary stated on a recent earnings call that it will take approximately 11-12 months to manufacture, ship and install replacement transformers. He also said the potline can be restarted earlier if the transformers are repaired.

Iceland, with 241,412 tonnes of aluminum shipped in the first eight-month period of the year, was the second largest supplier of the EU. Mozambique was the top supplier, supplying 337.670 tons of aluminium to the EU.

Importers of aluminum into the European Economic Area will begin paying a carbon tax under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Method (CBAM), after a two-year period. However, they won't have to pay until 2027.

IMPORTERS FRONT-LOADING ALUMINIUM AHEAD OF CBAM

Edgardo Gelsomino of Wood Mackenzie Aluminium Research, in a conversation with traders, stated that importers were front-loading aluminum ahead of CBAM.

He added that "along with avoiding carbon costs they also aim to reduce the burden of administrative work associated with the new regulations."

CBAM charges, which are based on emissions from the aluminium smelter that produces the metal behind it, aim to set a fair price for carbon released during production. The CBAM charge will be applied to EU imports for iron and steel as well as cement, electricity and hydrogen.

The metal produced by Norsk Hydro and Icelandic smelters, both part of the EEA region, will be exempt from the tax.

Nick Ogilvie is the CBAM Lead at CarbonChain, a software provider that provides carbon accounting. He said that aluminium produced by Middle Eastern and Canadian Smelters will have a low cost per ton of between 10 euros ($11.66), to 50 euros, because they emit fewer direct emissions.

Ogilvie continued, "But there are smelters that are using old technology and their products will not be entering the EU any time soon." ($1 = 0.8575 euros)

(source: Reuters)