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Russia and Ukraine exchange new accusations over breaches of the energy ceasefire
On Wednesday, Russia and Ukraine both accused the other of launching attacks on each other's power plants in violation of an agreement brokered by the United States. Both sides claimed they would provide details of the alleged violation to the United States. This led to Moscow and Kyiv agreeing to a limited truce in hopes of a full ceasefire. The Russian defence ministry has said that Ukraine conducted drone and bombing attacks on the western Kursk area, which cut power to more than 1,500 households. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, said that a Russian drone had hit an energy substation located in Sumy Region and that artillery shells damaged a powerline in Dnipropetrovsk. This cut off electricity for nearly 4,000 customers. The Trump administration is a sham. impatient Both sides should move more quickly to end the three-year conflict. Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, said that the fact that Vladimir Putin agreed to the energy truce showed that he is serious about engaging in the peace process. Kyiv as well as some of Ukraine's European allies disagree. Peskov stated that Moscow will continue to work with the Americans, despite what Peskov called daily Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Zelenskiy stated on Tuesday that Russia is breaking the energy truce, and called for the U.S.A. to increase sanctions against Moscow as Trump had threatened to do. Last month, Ukraine stated that it was open to a 30-day full ceasefire. However, Putin refused to agree. This raised a number of questions regarding how the ceasefire would be monitored. There were also concerns that Ukraine might use this breathing space to mobilize more troops and purchase more weapons from Western countries.
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Copper edged ahead of US tariffs, while tin extended its rally
Investors awaited details on reciprocal tariffs in the United States, while tin prices rose to their highest level in almost three years due to supply concerns. The benchmark three-month price of copper on the London Metal Exchange was up by 0.2% to $9,711 per metric ton at 0953 GMT, after falling to its lowest level in three weeks, $9,668.50. On Wednesday, U.S. president Donald Trump is expected to announce sweeping new tariffs against global trading partners. This could lead to retaliation on all sides. He will announce the tariffs around 2000 GMT. Investors are uncertain and confused about the future. Tom Price, Panmure Liberum's head of commodities strategy, said that the main issue is tariffs, but there are also issues such as currency debasement, global conflict and confusion about central bank policies. Trump has already imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium, and is expected add duties to copper imports. "Aluminium can give you a hint as to what copper will do." Price explained that the market has now entered the second phase where the demand is declining. LME aluminium fell 0.1% to $2.505 per ton. It had previously touched $2.491.50, its lowest level in almost three months, and was down about 9% during the last three weeks. LME tin rose 1.7% to reach $38,115 per ton, after reaching $38,395 at its highest since May 2022. This was due to fears of supply disruptions following the earthquake that struck tin-rich Myanmar on Friday. The price of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.9%, to 297 590 yuan (US$40 938.48) per ton. Myanmar's Wa State is responsible for 70% of the tin produced in Myanmar. It is also the third largest producer in the world and a major supplier to China. Other metals include lead, which fell 0.6% at $1,980 per ton on the LME, zinc, which dropped 0.6% at $2,806, and nickel, down 0.1% to $16,090. ($1 = 7.2692 Chinese yuan renminbi)
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Lagarde, ECB president: Trump's tariffs are bad for the entire world
The impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on the global economy will depend on their length, scope, and success in negotiations. This was the message from Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, on Wednesday. On Wednesday, the Trump administration will announce "reciprocal duties" against nations that impose duties on U.S. products. The move comes after the Trump administration imposed new import duties on products from Mexico and Canada, as well as steel and automobiles. In an interview with Ireland's Newstalk radio, Lagarde stated that "it will be negative around the world and the density and durability of the effect will vary depending on scope, the products targeted and how long it will last, as well as whether there are any negotiations." "Because, let's remember quite often, those escalations in tariffs prove harmful, even to those who inflict them, leading people to sit down at the negotiation table and actually discuss and ultimately remove some of these barriers." Lagarde received a prize in Dublin named after Irishman Peter Sutherland. The former World Trade Organization Director General, Lagarde stated that Sutherland "would be in his grave" if he were to know what was going on today. She said, "I don’t think I’ve ever used the word uncertainty so many times in the past few weeks because we don’t know what the deal will be (with the U.S.)." Predictability is very scarce at the moment. Lagarde said that it was too early to tell what the impact would be on Europe's economy of increased defense spending. It will depend on where and how the money is spent. (Reporting and editing by Peter Graff, Ed Osmond and Padraic Halpin)
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Landmines and other peace initiatives are being worked on by rival Cypriot parties.
Leaders of Greek and Turkish Cyprus agreed to work together on Wednesday in order to remove landmines and take initiatives in the areas of climate change and the environment. This comes weeks after the U.N. announced the first significant progress in the talks about the future on the divided island in many years. Following a meeting, the United Nations mission to Cyprus released a joint statement by Nikos Christodoulides, the Greek Cypriot Cypriot leader and Ersin Tatar the Turkish Cypriot Cypriot. In a statement, it was revealed that the two communities who live on different sides of Cyprus also intend to create a technical committee in order to deal with youth issues. This is part of a package to build confidence between the two parties. After a short coup inspired by the Greeks, a Turkish invasion split Cyprus in 1974. This was after years of violence between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots that began almost immediately after Britain's independence in 1960. The island is the main source of disagreements between NATO allies Greece, and Turkey. In a statement, it was stated that the two sides engaged in a "constructive dialogue" about increasing the number civilian crossing points, and plans to build a solar farm within the buffer zone controlled by the U.N. In 2017, the reunification process collapsed and since then, efforts to restart a new peace process have been stagnant. Christodoulides, Tatar and U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres met in Geneva for informal discussions two weeks ago. Guterres stated that progress was made for the very first time in many years. The Greek and Turkish Cypriots are still in disagreement over the details of any settlement, despite agreeing on confidence-building measures. Greek Cypriots are in favor of a federation as prescribed by U.N. Resolutions. Turkish Cypriots support a two-state settlement, arguing decades of failed talks have proved that a federal system is unworkable. (Reporting and editing by Alex Richardson; Reporting by Michele Kambas)
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Gold and stocks both rise ahead of Trump’s 'Liberation Day" tariffs
The stock market fell on Wednesday as investors worried about the risk of a global trade war intensifying. In recent weeks, investors have been focused on the new round reciprocal levies which the White House will announce at 2000 GMT on Wednesday. These are expected to go into effect immediately following the announcement. Trump has already imposed duties on autos, aluminium and steel, as well as increased duties on all Chinese goods. This has rattled the markets, with fears growing that a full-blown global trade war may trigger a sharp economic slowdown. The European markets were relatively quiet, with stock prices pointing lower and currencies and bond yields remaining stable. The STOXX 600 European benchmark fell 0.9% in one day. This was mainly due to declines in the pharmaceutical sector, which is a heavyweight. The volatility measures - which are often used as a proxy to measure investor anxiety - have increased, indicating the rush of traders at the last minute to hedge against large price swings in currencies, stocks, and bonds. Daiwa Capital's Chris Scicluna, an economist at the firm, said: "I doubt that what's announced today will be in place nine months from now because we're aware of negotiations." He said that it was difficult to predict the impact of the rate hikes, or any other changes in the stock market, on the economy. Wall Street's benchmark S&P and Nasdaq both ended the session higher, after earlier losing ground. The Dow ended a little lower. Futures on S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined by 0.3-0.4%. Investors hope for clarity and the beginning of the deal-making process. Tariffs are already affecting business sentiment and will likely lead to a drop in global economic activity over the next few months," said Ben Bennett of Legal & General Investment Management, Asia-Pacific Investment Strategist. SOFT DATA Investors are becoming increasingly concerned by signs such as rising prices, a slowing economy and cracks on the labour market. The data showed that U.S. manufacturing shrank in March, after two months of growth. A measure of inflation in the factory gates jumped to its highest level in almost three years due to rising concern over tariffs on imported products. The Labour Department reported on Tuesday that U.S. employment opportunities fell by 194,000 in February to 7.568 millions as tariff uncertainty dampened labour demand. The yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill in the United States was up by 1 basis point to 4,168% after falling to 4,133% on February, its lowest level since April 4. The currency markets were quiet. The dollar fluctuated between $1.2916 and $1.0797. The dollar remained at 149.55 yen. But the focus will be on the tariff details. This is especially true after a report in a major media outlet said that Trump's advisers were considering a plan to raise duties by around 20% on nearly all products, instead of targeting specific countries or products. Chris Weston is the head of research for Pepperstone. He said, "We are heading into Trump's time to shine, with many already having deleveraged in order to run a neutral or flat position on equity, USD (dollar), and Treasuries." Gold, which is seen as a safe haven against economic and political turmoil, has risen 0.5%, to $3.125 per ounce. This is just a little below the record high of Tuesday. Gold is up 19% this year. This follows a gain of 27% in 2024, which was the best performance it had in a decade. Brent futures are down 0.5% at $74.06 per barrel while U.S. Crude Futures are down 0.6% at $70.77 per barrel. (Ankur Banerjee contributed additional reporting from Singapore; editing by Shri Navaratnam, Tomasz Janowski and Ankur Banerjee)
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Italy's business lobby lowers its GDP forecast as U.S. Tariffs loom
Confindustria, the main Italian business lobby, cut its forecast of economic growth for the country on Wednesday. It warned that the looming U.S. tariffs could further deteriorate the outlook. The U.S. president Donald Trump is expected to announce a comprehensive tariff policy later on Wednesday amid concerns among investors, businesses and consumers about escalating trade tensions. Confindustria forecast that Italy's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow by 0.6% in 2018, half of the official government forecast of 1.2% and lower than the 0.9% estimate the association made in October. It was predicted that the GDP would grow to 1% by 2026. The third largest economy in the euro zone expanded modestly by 0.7% both in 2024 and 2023. After stagnating for the third quarter, it managed to grow by 0.1% from the previous quarter in the fourth. Analysts expect little improvement in the short term. Confindustria stated that, while it incorporated tariffs announced by the United States on steel and aluminum and "record levels" of uncertainty on trade policy and referred to as "record-levels of uncertainty", its forecasts did not take into account an escalating war of trade. Confindustria stated that in a worst-case scenario with tariffs of 25% on all imports from the U.S., increasing to 60% in China, as well as retaliatory actions against U.S. exported, Italy's growth in GDP would be reduced to 0.2% by 2025, and to 0.3% by 2026. The group stated that pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and other vehicles, as well as machinery, were the industries most dependent on sales to the U.S. which was Italy's largest export market last year after Germany. Both the International Monetary Fund and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development have forecast a 0.7% growth in Italy this year. (Reporting and editing by Gavin Jones, Alvise Armellini)
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EUROPE GAS - Prices down on warmer weather and eyes on Trump tariff plan
The Dutch and British gas price fell on Wednesday morning, as the warmer weather forecasts reduced demand. Meanwhile, the market closely monitors Trump's "Liberation Day tariff plan". LSEG data shows that the Dutch front-month contract fell by 0.54 euros to 42.13 Euro per megawatt hour or $13.34/mmBtu at 0811 GMT. The Dutch day-ahead contracts was down by 0.72 euros at 41.95 Euro/MWh. The British day-ahead contracts was down 0.85 cents at 101.75p/therm. On Wednesday, U.S. president Donald Trump was ready to impose tariffs on all global trading partners. He would likely increase costs and invite retaliation. "Today's market could be volatile, with fundamentals being ignored. Liberation Day concerns could fuel concerns on global markets. Trumps decisions may have a negative impact on the global trade," said LSEG Analyst Wayne Bryan. In Northwest Europe, the forecast for heating demand is lower with an increase in temperatures. LSEG data shows that demand for the next day is down 441 gigawatt hours per day (GWh/d) and for weekends and working days in the coming week, it's down 45GWh/d. After a long and cold winter, Europe is now in the season of gas refilling. Gas storage sites are currently nearly two thirds empty. This is the first time that storage has to be refilled without pipeline gas passing through Ukraine. In a recent research note, Global Risk Management stated that the risk of refilling was at its highest ever level. The first planned major maintenance in Norway this summer will begin today at Nyhamna Gas Processing Plant and run until 7th April. The analysts of Engie EnergyScan wrote in an early morning note that, "Even if Gassco says the summer maintenance schedule will be lighter than in the previous two years, the drop in Norwegian gas flows won't improve the EU's storage situation." The benchmark carbon contract in Europe was 0.01 euros higher at 67.99 euro per metric ton. (Reporting by Marwa Rashed; Editing by Susanna Twdale)
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MUFG names its first sustainability director for EMEA
The bank announced on Wednesday that MUFG, a Japanese bank, has appointed its first Chief Sustainability Officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa to help its clients become more sustainable. Stephen Jennings is a veteran energy and renewables financier with 24 years of experience. He will now be the chief sustainability officer for EMEA in addition to his existing roles as head of EMEA energy structured finance and head of EMEA sustainable business division. The appointment comes just weeks after MUFG resigned from a UN Climate Alliance that helped banks develop policies to reduce their carbon footprint. In recent months, the Net Zero Banking Alliance saw a mass exodus and is now consulting on rules to try to retain its members. A spokesperson from MUFG stated that the bank's commitment to a future of net zero remains unchanged despite its decision. The spokesperson stated that "we aim to contribute towards real-economy carbonisation by providing advice and capital to our clients to help them transition their business models while ensuring the security and stability of the energy supply." Hideaki Takase, group chief strategy officer and sustainability officer, will continue to oversee MUFG’s climate policy. This includes a goal of being carbon neutral by 2050. Jennings is responsible for the development and implementation of MUFG EMEA’s sustainability strategy. He will also help finance clients and provide advice on their energy-transition strategies. He will chair the bank's Sustainability Committee and coordinate with MUFG. The statement stated that Cathryn Kelly will be appointed deputy chief sustainability officer EMEA. She is currently the head of the credit strategy group at the bank. MUFG Group aims to provide 100 trillion yen (668 billion dollars) in sustainable finance by 2030. ($1 = 149.6200yen) (Reporting and editing by Virginia Furness, Leslie Adler, Joe Bavier).
OECD: Global debt surpasses $100 trillion due to rising interest rates
The OECD reported on Thursday that outstanding government and corporate debt globally exceeded $100 trillion in 2012. Rising interest rates have forced borrowers to make tough decisions and prioritise investments.
Although central banks have cut interest rates, borrowing costs remain higher than they were before the rate hikes of 2022. Low-rate debt continues to be replaced, and interest costs will likely rise in the future.
This comes at a moment when governments are facing large spending bills. This week, the German parliament approved a massive infrastructure plan that will support an broader European defense spending push. Major economies are facing long-term costs due to the green transformation and an ageing population.
In its annual report on debt, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development stated that "This combination is higher costs and greater debt risk restricting future borrowing capacity at a moment when investment needs are more than ever."
Interest costs as a percentage of output increased from the lowest in 20 years to the highest between 2021 and 2024.
The report stated that interest rates are below market rates in over half of OECD nations and almost a third of emerging markets government debt. They are also lower for less than two-thirds of high grade corporate debts and more than three quarters for junk corporate debts.
By 2027, almost half of government debt in OECD and emerging market countries as well as a third of debt held by corporations will be paid off.
The organisation stated that low-income and high-risk countries are at the greatest risk of refinancing, as more than half of their debt is due to mature in the next three year's time, including 20% this year.
Serdar Celik, OECD's head of capital markets, financial institutions and corporate finance, said that as debt costs increase, companies and governments need to make sure their borrowing is a source of long-term productivity and growth.
We are not concerned if they do it that way. "If they don't, we will face more difficult times. If it increases the cost of debt without increasing the productivity capacity of the economic system, then it is not worth it."
The OECD reported that companies have increased their borrowings since 2008, mainly for financial reasons such as refinancings and shareholder payouts. However, corporate investment has decreased since 2008.
The OECD has said that emerging markets that rely on borrowing in foreign currencies need to develop local capital markets. The report revealed that borrowing costs through dollar-denominated debt had increased from around 4% to over 6% by 2024. They rose to more than 8 percent for nations with higher risk and lower-rated economies. These nations struggled to access domestic cash pools due to their low savings rates and small domestic markets.
TENSIONS GEOPOLITICAL
The OECD stated that funding the transition to net-zero emission was "an immense challenge".
If the extra investments required for the transition were financed by the public, the debt-to GDP ratios in advanced economies could be 25 points higher and in China 41 points higher by 2050. If the debt of energy companies in emerging markets outside China were to be funded privately, it would have to quadruple before 2035.
The OECD reported that foreign investors and households have replaced central banks in reducing their bond holdings. They now represent 34% and 11% respectively of the domestic government debt of OECD countries, up from 29% a 5% in 2020.
It warned that these dynamics might not continue.
The OECD warned that rising geopolitical tensions, coupled with trade uncertainty, could cause a rapid shift in risk aversion. This could disrupt portfolio flows internationally.
(source: Reuters)