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Oil prices fall on fears of weak US demand and oversupply

The oil prices fell a little on Thursday due to a weakening demand in the United States, and a general oversupply risk. This was in contrast to the concerns over the attacks in the Middle East as well as the Russian war in Ukraine.

Brent crude futures fell 14 cents or 0.21% to $67.35 a barge by 0433 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures dropped 15 cents or 0.24% to $63.53.

The benchmark contracts increased by more than $1 on Wednesday, following Israel's attack the day before on Hamas leaders in Qatar. Poland also scrambled their own air defences and NATO to shoot down suspected Russian Drones that had entered its airspace while an attack was being carried out on western Ukraine.

These gains continued the upward trend in oil prices that has been going on for most of this month, after they reached a low of three months on September 5.

The market has now turned its attention to the supply-and demand balances. Rising oil stocks, declining producer prices, and a slower labour market all point to a softening U.S. economic.

The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude stocks rose by 3.9 millions barrels during the week ending September 5. This was against the expectation of a drawback of 1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories also increased, adding 1.5m barrels against an expectation of a drawback of 200,000 barrels.

Due to the weaker economy, it is expected that U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the next week.

Stephen Brown, Capital Economics' deputy chief economist in North America, wrote in a report that the FOMC was likely to vote next week for a 25bp rate cut due to the improving labour market. However, a rare triple dissension in favor of a 50bp increase could grab the headlines.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged.

On the supply-side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies decided on Sunday to increase production starting in October.

The increase is smaller than some previous months, but it still adds to the weakness of the oil market. The EIA announced this week that oil prices will drop dramatically in the months to come as rising production will lead to a large build-up of oil inventories.

Eurasia Group said that despite lower oil prices and stagnant oil demand growth, oil producing countries, led by OPEC+, have been adding barrels. This suggests an imbalance will likely form by 2025, which will push the market to oversupply, and drive crude oil prices even lower," Eurasia Group consultant stated in a report. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue, Edwina Gibbs and Katya Glubkova)

(source: Reuters)