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OPEC, IEA at many divided on oil need considering that at least 2008

Manufacturer group OPEC and the International Energy Agency, the world's most carefully seen forecasters of oil demand growth, are more apart than they have been for a minimum of 16 years in their views on fuel use, according to research study.

The gap between the IEA, which represents industrialised nations, and the Company of the Petroleum Exporting Countries means the 2 are sending divergent signals to traders and investors on oil market strength in 2024 and, for the longer term, about the speed of the world's shift to cleaner fuels.

In February this year, the IEA forecasted demand will increase by 1.22 million barrels daily (bpd) in 2024, while in its February report OPEC expected 2.25 million bpd. The difference has to do with 1% of world demand.

The IEA has a really strong perception that the energy transition will move ahead at a much faster speed, Neil Atkinson, a previous head of the IEA's Oil Markets Division, stated. Both firms have boxed themselves in with a position, which is why they have this enormous gulf in demand forecasts.

To set the difference in context, evaluated the modifications each firm has made to its oil demand forecasts from 2008 to 2023, and the first 2 months of this year.

The duration was selected to provide a long sufficient time series to draw conclusions and because it consisted of extreme volatility in oil demand, starting with the 2008 monetary crisis and ending with the 2020 pandemic and subsequent demand recovery.

International oil futures hit an all-time high of almost $ 150 a barrel in July 2008, compared to approximately $80 now.

' analysis of 16 years of IEA and OPEC monthly reports discovered the 1.03 million bpd space in February was the greatest in per-barrel terms because duration.

The IEA, asked to discuss its 2024 forecast, stated in an email that this year's slowdown totaled up to a go back to the growth trends seen before the pandemic, and the slowdown is currently visible in oil deliveries data.

We anticipate this to continue this year, with movement indicators recommending that road and air traffic are stabilising, the IEA stated, adding it might not discuss other organisations' projections.

OPEC did not respond immediatey to an emailed ask for comment.

IEA GREEN SHIFT

OPEC and the IEA also disagree over the medium term. The IEA expects oil need to peak by 2030 as the world switches to cleaner fuels. OPEC dismisses the view, and its forecasts to 2045 show no peak.

The IEA, formed 50 years ago as the industrialised world's. energy guard dog has shifted its concentrate on oil and gas supply. security to championing renewables and environment action. For some. OPEC members, this weakens its role as an impartial. authority.

They have actually moved from being a forecaster and assessor of the. market to one practicing political advocacy, Saudi Arabia's. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stated last September.

IEA members are mainly big energy consumers and the. governments of many of them have actually decided to accelerate the. advancement of renewable energy to accelerate the shift towards a. low-carbon economy.

They are looking to their energy guard dog to show them how. to arrive, experts state. OPEC members by contrast, which. depend upon fossil fuel income, face potentially catastrophic. financial repercussions from a quick transition far from oil.

The analysis found the two bodies' projections have actually tied. statistically in terms of forecast accuracy, making it tough to. say which will be right based on the performance history.

Please click TABLE to see the IEA and OPEC projections. utilized.

also collected price quotes from 26 experts at banks. and research companies of 2024 need growth. The mean of these. quotes is 1.3 million bpd, or closer to the IEA view.

Of 20 analyst actions on the question of whether demand. will peak by 2030, 12 experts said no, suggesting OPEC is seen. as more likely to be ideal on this point.

UPWARD REVISIONS

Like all economic forecasts, oil demand forecasts are. based on revision and impacted by lots of events that are. impossible to predict.

Information on physical oil use requires time to emerge, contributing to the. obstacle.

According to the IEA, demand growth will halve in 2024. Partly as a result of a booming electrical lorry fleet. since January the agency had actually modified upwards the 2024 demand. development forecast for 3 straight months.

Amrita Sen, creator of Energy Aspects, stated that the IEA. tended to modify its need upwards, as did Atkinson.

I 'd say the IEA's oil demand forecasts keep getting modified. greater, Sen said. Peak oil need will likely be greater than. the IEA projections.

The analysis found that over 2008-2023 the IEA. under-estimated overall demand in its initial forecast 56% of the. time compared to 50% of the time by OPEC - not a big. difference.

Atkinson said that although both agencies have actually anticipated. need developments precisely, like Sen of Energy Aspects he. thought OPEC was most likely to be best on the problem of need. peaking this years.

At different times in history, the IEA and OPEC have both. called it quite well, he said. I believe the IEA are premature. in calling for a demand peak by 2030 due to growth in establishing. nations.

(source: Reuters)