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Yellen faces tough road on China's excess capacity issue

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrives in China's southern factory hub of Guangzhou on Thursday with a tough message to Chinese authorities: you're producing too much of everything, specifically tidy energy items, and the world can't absorb it.

China is letting loose a flood of electric lorries (EVs),. batteries, photovoltaic panels, semiconductors and other made. products onto worldwide markets, the result of years of enormous. government subsidies and weak need at home. International costs for. many goods are tanking, pushing producers in other nations.

We see a growing danger of cash losing companies that are. going to have to sell off their production someplace, a senior. U.S. Treasury authorities stated of overproduction in essential Chinese. sectors.

In a series of meetings with top Chinese financial authorities. from Friday through Monday, Yellen will look for to communicate her view. that the excess production is unhealthy for China and that there. is a growing drumbeat of concern about it in the U.S., Europe,. Japan, Mexico and other significant economies.

The authorities, who spoke on condition of privacy, included. that Yellen would explain: If there are trade actions around. the world, it's not an anti-China thing, it's a response to. their policies.

Beijing appears to be doubling down on investing in more. producing capability in favored high-technology sectors, a. stance that likewise is progressively at chances with the European. Union, Japan, Mexico and other major economies.

I do think the phase is set for renewed stress with. China, said Brad Setser, a former trade official at both the. U.S. Treasury and the U.S. Trade Representative's office. It's. an intrinsic question whether other countries want to import. China's distortions.

Setser added that Yellen's cautions about Chinese. overproduction may be an initial action by the Biden. administration towards brand-new tariffs or other trade barriers on. Chinese EVs, batteries and other products.

En path to Guangzhou, Yellen decreased to state whether she. would raise the hazard of brand-new tariffs in her conferences in. Guangzhou and Beijing with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and. Guangdong Province Governor Wang Weizhong, who has also presided. over hundreds of billions of dollars worth of recent brand-new. projects.

She said that the Biden administration was figured out to. establish American supply chains in EVs, solar energy and other. tidy energy items with investment tax credits and would not. eliminate other possible methods which we would secure them.

In March, China's management pledged to follow through on. President Xi Jinping's brand-new mantra of unleashing new efficient. forces in China by investing in developing technology. industries including EVs, brand-new materials, industrial spaceflight. and life sciences - locations where numerous U.S. companies hold benefits.

FACTORY FIRST

The outcomes of China's prior investment binges are. staggering.

Including EVs and combustion-engine automobiles, China by the end. of 2022 had the capability to produce 43 million cars. annually, however its plant utilisation rate - a measure closely. linked to success - was just under 55%, according to information. from the China Passenger Car Association.

Costs Russo, the Shanghai-based founder and CEO of advisory. firm Automobility, estimated that this translates to excess automobile. production capacity of about 10 million vehicles a year, or. roughly two thirds of North American auto output in 2022.

The Rystad Energy research group approximates that China will. quickly have the ability to fulfill all global demand for lithium-ion car. batteries, even as dozens of battery and component plants spring. up throughout the U.S.

And new entrants are still entering a significantly. cut-throat Chinese EV market. Smart phone maker Xiaomi on. Tuesday introduced sales of its sporty brand-new Speed Ultra 7 (SU7) EV.

SOLAR SUPREMACY

The situation in China's solar panel sector may be worse,. where overproduction pressed costs down 42% in 2015 to levels. 60% below the expense of equivalent U.S.-made products. China now. represent 80% of global production capability, and significant solar. manufacturers are continuing to develop factories, backed by. provincial and regional subsidies.

At the end of 2023, China had the capacity to construct 861. gigawatts of solar modules annually, more than double the global. overall installed capability of 390 million gigawatts. Another. 500-600 gigawatts of annual capability is forecast to come online. this year-- enough to supply all worldwide need through 2032,. according to energy research company Wood Mackenzie.

(source: Reuters)