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Africa's GDP Recalculation Campaign is presented to the G20 but there are many skeptics.

African countries are planning to make a new push this year at international summits for standard measures of strength economics such as the GDP in order to better recognize their vast natural resources and assets.

The African Development Bank is driving the initiative in the hopes that recalibrating the GDP will automatically improve debt metrics, and ease borrowing market pressures which have triggered dozens economic crises over the past decades.

It has been long debated how much money precious ecosystems could generate for the poorest countries. The U.N. estimates Africa to be home to one quarter of all mammal and bird species.

The AfDB says that the country has one-sixth the remaining world forests, and these, along with the mangroves, lock in planet-damaging CO2 emissions. This benefit should be accounted for when calculating GDP.

It will be discussed at all G7 and G20 meetings )... Akinwumi Adesina, AfDB president, said on the sidelines a conference in Tanzania last week that he expected others to recognize it was time to start changing the valuation of African economies.

There are questions about the impact of such a recalibration on investors and creditor, given that the jump needed to monetize the natural wealth through carbon credits is still a long way off.

"You can borrow more money but the real question is: can you pay it back? "If you cannot pay more then it will be a big problem," Kariuki ngari, CEO of Standard Chartered Kenya said on the question whether debts would be available more cheaply to Africa.

According to the AfDB, Africa's official GDP total in 2018 was $2.5 trillion. This is 2.5 times less than Africa's natural resources that year which they estimate at $6.2 trillion. Natural capital is defined as forests, fisheries and minerals like lithium which are crucial to the global energy shift.

A higher official GDP number could also lower the debt-to-GDP (debt-to-GDP) ratios that creditors and investors use as a measure of ability to repay debt.

African nations are often rated lower and have higher lending costs due to their perceived riskiness. Nigeria and Kenya, for example, issued dollar bonds last year with interest rates as high as 10%, compared to rates below 5% in advanced economies such the United States.

According to the World Bank, total external debt in sub-Saharan Africa is now $500 billion, up from $150 billion just a decade ago.

Officials haven't yet specified which countries will see the largest improvement in GDP, or how much their borrowing costs might drop if they factor in their natural wealth.

The issue will be discussed at the next meeting

This issue will likely be discussed during South Africa's G20 Presidency this year. In February, the top finance officials of the group will meet in South Africa.

A spokesperson from South Africa did NOT immediately respond to a comment request. Adesina, of the AfDB, said that the continent planned to also hammer out an agreement on the matter at a summit of the African Union in Ethiopia mid-February.

Climate change is also a factor in the debt problem. Many African economies are highly vulnerable to it.

Amina Mohamed, the deputy secretary-general of the United Nations, said that "exorbitant capital costs" mean that a continent which has the potential to become a renewable powerhouse only accounts for less than 1 percent of global solar installed capacity.

Denis Sassou Nguesso of the Republic of the Congo and Kenya's William Ruto also advocated the change in how the African economies were calculated during the COP29 global talks on climate last year, held in Baku, Azerbaijan.

The rich nations and international financial organizations did not commit to the campaign.

World Bank reports from the past two decades have shown the economic wealth, including natural resources. The World Bank's report from last year revealed that 6% global GDP was in renewable natural resources, including water, fisheries, renewable energy and other ecosystems.

Finding a way of monetising Africa's natural resources could help close the continent's multibillion-dollar financing gap. Rajiv Shah, president of Rockefeller Foundation, said that there is a "genuine need for fiscal assistance across the continent".

China, which is the largest bilateral creditor of many economies in this region, supports Africa's demand for a formula to calculate the continent's wealth.

Beijing stated at the conclusion of a summit of African leaders in September last year that "we call for a new assessment of the gross national product of African economies including the green riches of the African continent."

Zambia, having just completed its debt restructuring, is in favor of mobilizing more funds to support development.

Hakainde Hichilema, the Zambian president, said that the country urgently needs money to increase the number of electricity connections. "We don't want to waste time." (Reporting and editing by Karin Strohecker, Frances Kerry and Karin Strohecker. Additional reporting by Simon Jessop & Marc Jones.

(source: Reuters)