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Environment change to have long-term financial impact: SF Fed paper

A boost in the number of hot days as environment modification warms the globe would most likely damage the U.S. economy over the longterm, according to research study released on Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Our findings suggest that, under a scenario without any massive efforts to minimize carbon emissions, future increases in extreme heat would lower the capital stock by 5.4% and yearly consumption by 1.8% by the year 2200, wrote Stephie Fried, a senior financial expert at the San Francisco Fed, and co-authors Gregory Casey and Matthew Gibson, both professors at Williams College.

The scientists used scientists' best price quotes for the number of days per year where working outdoors would cause heat tension, approximated to rise from 22 days in 2020 to 80 in 2100.

They then projected the likely drain on labor performance in building and construction, where - unlike most of the services and manufacturing sectors - air-conditioning can not counter the impact of hot days.

They concentrated on building because it makes up a larger share of general economic output and U.S. investment than other sectors like farming or mining where employees are likewise susceptible to heat.

Decreases in building efficiency slow capital accumulation and for that reason have long-lasting impacts on macroeconomic outcomes, they composed.

Using a less-likely option circumstance under which the variety of extreme-heat days increases to 125 in 2100, the authors found much bigger consequences from a decline in construction performance, with capital accumulation forecasted to fall by 18%. and usage by 7% in 2200.

(source: Reuters)