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OPEC and China are the triple whammy for uncertainty in crude oil: Russell
Crude oil prices have been driven primarily by the unwinding of OPEC+'s production cuts, China's storage flows, and geopolitical tensions this year. This is likely to continue for the foreseeable. It is important to understand the factors that influence the market. It is impossible to predict with accuracy the future of these factors. Forecasting the market is a difficult task for the crude oil industry because all three factors are unpredictable and can change rapidly. The Energy Markets Forum, held in Fujairah (the hub for oil storage and shipping in the United Arab Emirates) this week, was a place where participants and attendees could not help but notice the contradiction. The level of uncertainty about the future two or three quarters is marked. Prices tend to move in opposite directions depending on the three factors that currently shape crude markets. It is not certain whether global demand will be able to absorb this extra oil. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the increase in actual exports of the group does not match the permitted increases in production. According to analysts and industry sources, the eight OPEC+ members have produced about three quarters of the additional oil output they targeted since April when the group began easing its production restrictions. The market is still waiting for 500,000 bpd or 0.5% of the global demand. The lifting of OPEC+'s production quotas is actually a positive for the prices. The market may not react strongly if OPEC+ agrees to increase production quotas at a weekend meeting, as it will wait to see the actual amount of extra oil. CHINA STORAGE China's storage of crude oil is seen as a positive factor, at least for the short-term. It has absorbed any excess crude in recent months and helped to stabilize the benchmark Brent futures price in a tight range between $65 and $70 per barrel. China does not disclose the amount of crude oil flowing into strategic and commercial storages. However, the surplus can easily be estimated by subtracting the volume processed by refineries and the total of imported and domestically produced oil. According to this, China has likely been building up its stockpiles at a rate of at least 500,000 barrels per day so far this season. It is hard to predict, given the lack transparency, whether China will build up its inventories or if they will reduce them. Price is a good predictor, because China has a history of purchasing extra crude oil when prices are low and drawing from its inventories when they rise. This dynamic could have played out in the month of September. According to LSEG Oil Research, China's crude oil imports fell from 11,65 million bpd per day in August to 10,83 million bpd, which is the lowest level since February. Oil prices soared in June, during the conflict between Israel & Iran. This is when September's cargoes were arranged. The short conflict between Israel & Iran serves as a good reminder that geopolitics has played a larger role in this year and remains an unpredictable factor. The trade wars started by Donald Trump have created economic uncertainty, as well as tensions in the Middle East. These events will also have an uncertain impact. In the case of Russia, damage to its refineries will likely reduce its refined fuel exports but increase crude oil shipments, which would lead to higher refining margins. Price volatility can be caused by uncertainty, but market participants may also become cautious and not push as hard in one direction or the other while they wait for hard data to determine which factor will win. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for. (Editing by Jan Harvey).
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Minister says Turkey could work with US and S. Korea for its second nuclear plant
Alparslan Bayraktar, the Energy Minister, said that Turkey could work with the United States, South Korea and Japan for its second nuclear power plant. He added that this might be a trilateral arrangement. Ankara said that it was in discussions with Russia, China and South Korea about possible new nuclear power stations in the western Thrace and northern Sinop regions to be added to the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant it is building with Russia. Bayraktar told CNN Turk that President Tayyip Erdoan had discussed cooperation with leaders of Canada, France and the United States on small modular plants and conventional plants after meeting Donald Trump, the U.S. president, at the White House. "We can say that the United States and South Korea were added together. Therefore, there may be a trilateral model with Korea-America-Turkey," he said, while repeating that the first reactor of Akkuyu would be operational in 2026. Bayraktar said that Turkey also wanted to access cheap energy, technology transfer and know-how through such investments. An agreement providing these benefits was reached with Russia for Akkuyu. It would also seek this same thing for its second nuclear plant.
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Quotes-Putin on paper tigers and Trump
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, spoke at the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi, a forum for Russia experts. He spoke in Russian and his words were translated by. Here are some main quotes. TOMAHAWK MISSILES - UKRAINE It is impossible to use Tomahawks in the absence of direct involvement by American military personnel. This would be a qualitatively and completely new level of escalation in both the relations between Russia, and the United States. On TRUMP's description of Russia as a paper tigger: "A paper tiger. What happens next? "Go and deal with the paper tiger." "Well, if we're fighting with the whole NATO bloc, we're moving, advancing and we feel confident and we're a paper Tiger, then what exactly is NATO?" HYSTERIA AMONG EUROPE’S LEADERS "The ruling class of Europe continues to stir up hysteria. The war with Russia is almost at our doorstep. This mantra is repeated over and over. ... Can't they believe that Russia will attack NATO, as they say? ... "They're either dishonest or incredibly incompetent, if they believe that nonsense. It's impossible to accept this." ON RUSSIA'S RESPONSE TO EUROPEAN MILITARY BUILDUP: "We cannot ignore the situation." For our own safety, we have no right to ignore what is happening. Our defence and safety, I repeat. We are therefore closely monitoring the militarization of Europe." "Are they just empty words or is it the time to countermeasure? Germany, for instance, claims that the German Army should be the strongest in Europe. Good. "We listen to what the speaker is saying and understand it." I don't think anyone doubts that these measures will force Russia into action, and Russia will have countermeasures in no time. I think that (to put it mildly) the response to such threats will be very convincing. On the Ukraine Conflict: "We thank all countries who have been sincere in their efforts to find a solution to this problem over the past few years." This includes our partners, the founding members in BRICS, Belarus, and, by the way North Korea. In the Arab World as a group, primarily the UAE along with many other countries. "Unfortunately, the fighting has not stopped, but responsibility does not lie with the majority of countries, but rather with a small minority in Europe who are constantly escalating conflict." RELATIVE TO RELATIONS WITH UNITED STATES We all know that our countries have many differences. We have different views on global issues. It is not unusual for major powers to clash. "In fact, it is important to determine how these differences can be resolved and whether they can be settled peacefully." The current White House administration expresses its desires and interests directly,... and bluntly - but without unnecessary hypocrisy." "We can see that the U.S. government is primarily guided by its own interest, as they understand them. This is, I think, a rational strategy. If you'll excuse me, Russia reserves the right to follow its own national interests. "One of them, incidentally is the restoration to full-fledged relationships with the U.S. 'FIGHTING" BETWEEN RUSSIA & NATO The Ukrainian military is being supported by a center in Europe that supports all of the NATO countries' actions. It transmits space intelligence, provides weapons, and offers training. On the Course of the Fight: "Our troops are confidently moving forward along virtually the entire line-of-contact." "We control nearly 100% of the Luhansk Region." The enemy controls just over 19% of the Donetsk Region, and 24-25% in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. "And everywhere, Russian troops maintain the strategic lead with confidence." On Trump's Gaza Plan: "In general, Russia will support it." As long as it achieves the ultimate goal that we have discussed. Russia has always... advocated for the creation of two state - Israel and a Palestinian State. This, I believe, is the only way to find a permanent solution to the Palestinian/Israeli conflict." US CALLS INDIA TO RENOUNCE RUSSIAN ENERGY "If India refuses to accept our energy supply, it will suffer certain losses... Of course, I believe that the people of India will closely monitor any decisions made by political leaders and will never tolerate humiliation before anyone. "I know that Prime Minister Modi would never do such a thing." On Alleged UKRAINIAN Strikes on ZAPORIZHZHIA Nuclear Plant: "This is a very dangerous game. People on the other side need to understand that they have nuclear power plants operating on their side. What's to stop us from responding in kind? "Let them think about it." ON CONTINUED EXPORTS OF URANIUM TO THE U.S.: The United States is one, if no the largest state, that uses nuclear power plants. Russia is the second biggest supplier of uranium for the American market. On Alaska Summit with TRUMP "President Trump, I and my team discussed virtually nothing at the meeting. Not even our bilateral agenda." We discussed only the ways and possibilities to resolve the Ukrainian Crisis. "Secondly, in some way, even if it was superficial, we talked about restoring Russian-American ties, which, not only are at an impasse but also at their lowest level ever, and that is a very serious issue." On the French seizure of a Russian oil tanker: "Well, I think it's piracy... A tanker has been seized without justification in international waters. They were looking for cargo - maybe drones or military equipment. "None of it was there nor could it have been." RUSSIA’S ECONOMY "We must strengthen our financial system." Two things are important. "First, we need to further strengthen macroeconomic stabilization and reduce inflation while still attempting to maintain positive growth rates." "But we agreed at the end last year that we would sacrifice our record-breaking rates of growth in order to fight inflation. The central bank increased the key rate which has a significant impact on the economy.
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Tesla records record deliveries; concerns grow over EV demand after tax credits
Tesla reported record quarterly deliveries Thursday. However, concerns that the U.S. Tax Credit for EVs will expire soon and turn a rush into a trickle weighed down its shares. Elon Musk's carmaker, which is led by Elon Musk, went all-in to boost sales prior to the removal of the $7.500 federal tax credit. They used a combination discounts, financing offers, social media ads, and emails from customers. "I am skeptical that this will last and I believe we could have a couple of soft quarters," said Elliot Johnson. He is the chief investment officer for Evolve ETFs which manages Tesla investments. Johnson explained that the sales spike was due to a pull-forward of demand to lock in incentives rather than a growing consumer interest. He added it wouldn't be irrational to investors to "sell news" and purchase again next year. Tesla shares fell 3.4% during afternoon trading. Stocks have been rising recently, up 14% in the last year at Wednesday's closing. This is after Musk's pay package was proposed by the board. Tesla and its competitors received government credits to use them in attractive leases. Tesla is now offering leases after the credits expire. Lease prices are rising Tesla offers a credit for its vehicles. Tesla's prices, excluding credit, remain unchanged. The company announced on Thursday that it had delivered 497.099 vehicles in the three-month period ended September. This is up 7.4% compared to 462,890 vehicles a year ago, and far above the expectations of Wall Street, which was for 443,919 cars. Model 3 compact sedans, as well as its most popular Model Y crossovers, accounted for 481,166 of the deliveries. The automaker will report its quarterly results on Tuesday, October 22. According to Troy Teslike an independent Tesla researcher, the strong demand for the refreshed Model Y has helped boost sales in China. In September, it began delivering the six seat Model Y L to China. This family-oriented variant is designed to boost demand in the largest EV market in the world. Europe, on the other hand, was a weak point as competitors aggressively promoted plug in hybrids. Meanwhile, Chinese EV brands began gaining ground on a hyper-competitive marketplace. According to the Automobile Manufacturers' Association of the region, the company's European sales in August fell by 22.5% compared to a year ago, reducing its market share from 2.5% to just 1.5%. Visible Alpha projects that Tesla will deliver 1.61 million vehicles in 2025, which is roughly 10% less than 2024. Tesla must deliver 389.498 vehicles during the December quarter in order to meet this projection. Rivian, a smaller competitor, lowered its midpoint forecast for annual deliveries on Thursday, but exceeded estimates for quarter-end deliveries due to an increase in demand by buyers eager to take advantage tax credits. MUSK AND TESLA Musk's wealth is largely derived from his Tesla holdings. A recent rise in the stock price of the company helped him surpass the $500 billion mark Wednesday. This boosted his position as the richest person on the planet. The board of directors has proposed that shareholders vote on a new award for the CEO. This could give Musk 12% ownership in the company worth up to $1 trillion if certain performance and valuation goals are met. These include delivering 20,000,000 vehicles within a 10 year period. The billionaire has positioned Tesla as more of a technology company rather than an EV manufacturer by focusing on AI based self-driving system, robotaxis, and humanoid robotics. Cheaper Models Tesla has delayed the launch of the Model Y, a lower-cost variant, in the U.S. by several months. The plan is to eventually build the variants in China and Europe. Tesla announced in June that the company had built "first builds" but that they would begin selling the vehicles in the fourth quarter, and increase production slower than expected. Analysts say that Tesla's ability cushion a slowdown after the credit crunch will be heavily dependent on its push to lower-priced model. Matt Britzman is a senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown and personally owns Tesla stock. Sources told us earlier this year that the stripped-down model is intended to be about 20% cheaper to manufacture than the refreshed Model Y. It could scale up to around 250,000 units a month in the U.S.
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OPEC's oil production increased in September, according to a survey
A survey released on Thursday found that OPEC oil production increased in September following an OPEC+ production agreement. This was mainly because of the United Arab Emirates' and Saudi Arabia's higher production. According to the survey, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 28,40 million barrels of oil per day in August, an increase of 330,000 barrels per days over the revised total for the month of August. The United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, were the countries that saw the biggest increases. OPEC+ - which includes OPEC, Russia and its allies - is accelerating the production increases by beginning in October. This will allow a second level of cuts to be unwound ahead of schedule. Some members have to make additional cuts in order to compensate for overproduction earlier, which will limit the impact of the increases. According to an agreement between eight OPEC+ member countries covering September production, five OPEC-members - Algerian, Iraqi, Kuwaiti, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – were required to increase output by 415,000 bpd, before the effects of compensation cuts totaling 170,000 bpd. According to the survey the actual increase of the five was 347, 000 bpd. Many outside sources place the output of Iraq and the UAE higher than what the countries themselves claim. Other estimates, like those from the International Energy Agency (IEA), say that they pump significantly more. The survey aims at tracking supply on the market. It is based upon data provided by LSEG (a financial group), information from companies that track flow, such as Kpler and information provided from sources within oil companies, OPEC, and consultants. (Also by Ahmad Ghaddar, Susan Fenton edited this article)
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IMF says Ecuador performing well on reforms, faces numerous challenges
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that Ecuador was meeting its targets for the expanded IMF loan program of $5 billion, but that it still needed to overcome challenges ranging from the volatility in oil prices to the domestic security issues that make capital market access difficult for this South American country. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said at a regular briefing to the press that the Fund worked with Ecuadorean officials to determine the timeline of the next review to unlock additional loan funding. The program was increased by $1 billion with an immediate disbursement of $600 million in July. Kozack stated that "Even though investors are now seeing Ecuador as less risky than before, it's still difficult for the country to gain access to international capital markets very soon." "The increased frequency of natural catastrophes, as well as a tense security situation, pose additional challenges to Ecuador." She said that it is important that Ecuador reform its fuel subsidy program to better target them towards the most vulnerable citizens of the country. Kozack stated that fuel subsidies are generally given to higher-income groups, and they can also lead to corruption and fuel theft. By reducing their scope, resources could be used for other important spending, such as more effective social safety networks. (Reporting and Editing by Bill Berkrot.)
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OPEC's oil production increased in September, according to a survey
OPEC'S SEPTEMBER OIL OUTPUT RAISES BY 330,000 BPD FROM August TO 28,40 MILLION BPDS, A SURVEY FINDING A survey released on Thursday found that OPEC oil production increased in September following an OPEC+ production agreement. This was mainly because of the United Arab Emirates' and Saudi Arabia's higher production. According to the survey, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 28,40 million barrels of oil per day in August, an increase of 330,000 barrels per days over the revised total for the month of August. The United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, were the countries that saw the biggest increases. OPEC+ - which includes OPEC, Russia and its allies - is accelerating the production increases by beginning in October. This will allow a second level of cuts to be unwound ahead of schedule. Some members have to make additional cuts in order to make up for overproduction. This will limit the impact of the increases. According to an agreement between eight OPEC+ member countries covering September production, five of the members - Algerian, Iraqi, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – were required to increase output by 415,000 bpd, before the effects of compensation cuts totaling 170,000 bpd. According to the survey the actual increase of the five was 347, 000 bpd. Many outside sources place the output of Iraq and the UAE higher than what the countries themselves claim. Other estimates, like those from the International Energy Agency (IEA), say that they pump significantly more. The survey aims at tracking supply on the market. It is based upon data provided by LSEG (a financial group), information from companies that track flow, such as Kpler and information from sources within oil companies, OPEC, and consultants. (Also by Ahmad Ghaddar, Susan Fenton edited this article)
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Ivory Coast awards 11 new mining licenses to boost exploration
Ivory Coast has announced that it has issued 11 new exploration permits for gold, copper and cobalt to both local and international mining companies. The world's largest cocoa producer is looking to attract more investment to its booming mining industry as it diversifies. Amadou Coulibaly, the government's spokesperson, announced the new permits after they had been approved by a cabinet on Wednesday. The Ivory Coast is positioning itself as an investor-friendly, stable mining destination, amid increasing regulatory uncertainty in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger where military juntas tighten control over mining assets. Eight gold exploration companies are included in the permits valid for four-years, including Resolute Exploration Cote d'Ivoire which is developing Doropo Gold Mine in northern Ivory Coast and Tieto mineral which operates the Abujar mine west of Abidjan, the economic capital. Three more exploration permits have been awarded in the areas of chrome, nickel, cobalt, manganese and copper. According to Mines Minister Mamadou Sangafowa Coulibaly, the gold production in Ivory Coast will increase from 10 tonnes in 2012 to more than 58 tonnes by 2024 and 62 tonnes by 2025. New mines, such as Lafigue, operated by Endeavour Mining are responsible for the increase. The government wants to reach 100 tonnes per year by 2030. According to the Professional Group of Miners of Cote d'Ivoire (a lobby group), the mining sector contributes 4% of GDP today, up from 1.5% a ten years ago. It has also attracted billions of dollars in investment. Canadian mining companies Barrick, Perseus Mining and Roxgold, as well as Fortuna Mining, operate in Ivory Coast. Coulibaly explained that the new permits are part of a strategy aimed at unlocking mineral potential, and diversifying the economy away from cocoa. (Reporting and writing by Bate Felix, Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Editing by Robbie Corey Boulet and Elaine Hardcastle).
Oil set to experience steepest weekly drop in 3 1/2 months
The oil prices were slightly higher on Friday, after four consecutive sessions of declines. However, they are on course for the steepest weekly drop since late June because market expectations expect that OPEC+ could increase output despite concerns about oversupply.
Brent crude futures rose 18 cents or 0.3% to $64.29 per barrel at 0000 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude climbed by 19 Cents, or 0.3% to $60.67 per barrel.
Brent could end the session at its lowest level since last week's May 30. WTI might finish at levels not seen since May 2 if prices don't recover further in this session.
Brent is down 8.3% on a weekly basis while WTI has fallen 7.6%.
Sources told The Week that OPEC+ may agree to increase oil production in November by as much as 500,000 barrels a day, which is triple the October increase, because Saudi Arabia wants to regain market share.
Tony Sycamore is an analyst with IG. He said, "If OPEC+ announces a 500,000 bpd hike this weekend, that's likely to be a large enough increase to send crude back down, first to the support level of $58.00 before testing this year's lowest $55.00 area."
Analysts say that a potential increase in OPEC+ oil supply, a slowdown in global crude refinery operations due to maintenance, and upcoming seasonal drops in demand will accelerate the buildup of oil stocks in the U.S.
Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventory rose last week due to a decline in refining and demand.
Sycamore stated that "concerns about a US shutdown curtailing economic activity, and the return of Iraqi Kurdish oil to the market are also impacting the crude price."
The Group of Seven finance ministers announced on Wednesday that they would increase pressure on Russia, targeting those countries who continue to buy Russian oil. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Sudarshan Varadan)
(source: Reuters)