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As the Middle East crisis flares, stocks tumble and safe havens benefit
Investors, worried about the United States' potential for a recession, pushed global stocks down and the dollar up on Thursday. During the Israel-Iran war, they sought out safe assets and abandoned riskier ones. Donald Trump, who spoke to reporters in front of the White House Thursday, said, "I might do it." I may or may not do it." The Wall Street Journal reported Trump told his senior aides that he had approved plans for an attack on Iran, but he was waiting to give the final order until Tehran abandoned its nuclear program. The STOXX 600 index fell for the third consecutive day in Europe. It is now down by nearly 2.5% for the week. This will be the biggest weekly decline since April's tariff-induced turmoil. U.S. S&P futures dropped 0.6% despite the fact that most U.S. market, including Wall Street and Treasury Markets, will be closed for a holiday on Thursday. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. He said, "Market participants are still edgy. He said that speculation was rampant "that the U.S. would intervene. This would be a material escalation, and could invite Iran to retaliate directly against the U.S. This scenario could lead to a regional conflict that would have implications for the global energy supply, and possibly economic growth. The Middle East crude supply shocks have been the main cause of recent market anxiety. They've driven crude oil prices up 11% in one week. Brent crude rose by nearly 1%, to $77.40 per barrel. This is close to the highest price since January. Gold, which usually struggles when the dollar increases, has pared its earlier losses and is now trading at $3,366 per ounce. The dollar rose, but the euro fell by 0.1% to $1.1466. Australian and New Zealand Dollars, both risk-linked currency, were down 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively. CENTRAL BANK POLICY The Federal Reserve sent mixed signals to the markets overnight. To Trump's dismay, policymakers kept rates as expected and maintained projections for two quarter point rate cuts this year. Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, was cautious about future easing, and said at a press conference that he expected "meaningful" inflation as a result Trump's aggressive tariffs. MUFG strategists said that the Fed is "underestimating the weaknesses in the economy which were present before the shock of the tariffs, and specifically, ignoring the cracks in the labor markets that have been evident for years." We maintain that the longer people wait before easing up, the more they might need to do. The markets will be looking for possible catalysts in a series of central bank decisions coming out of Europe. As expected, the Swiss National Bank reduced interest rates to zero. The franc was left to drift, since markets had already priced in an approximate 20% chance of a half point cut. Karsten Junius is the chief economist of J Safran Sarasin. He said that the SNB was not concerned about avoiding the appearance of being a currency manipulation. However, it would be politically prudent to avoid appearing too eager to move the policy rate to the negative. The franc was stable against the dollar at 0.819 and the euro, 0.9395, last. Next up is the Bank of England, which is expected to maintain UK rates at their current levels. Data released on Wednesday revealed that inflation was lower than expected in November, but food prices rose. Policymakers will also be looking at the impact of higher energy costs due to the Israel-Iran conflict. The dollar fell by 0.1% to $1.341.
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S&P says that India's new gold lending rules will reshape the business models of lenders.
S&P Global Ratings warned in a Wednesday note that new rules by India's central banks will force lenders to rethink their underwriting procedures and prepare for higher costs in the near term. The Reserve Bank of India released its final guidelines for gold-backed loans earlier this month. They mandated a move to cash-flow-based credit assessment and tighter monitoring of the loan-to value (LTV). S&P stated that these changes would have the most impact on nonbank lenders who are heavily dependent on gold loan portfolios. The first is that the finance companies will incur upfront costs when they switch to a cash-flow-based assessment of borrowers' creditworthiness, said Shinoy Varghese. Credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings. Lenders must comply with the new standards by April 1, 2026. The new rules give lenders more flexibility when it comes to offering short-term loans for consumption borrowing. However, including interest rates into LTV calculations could reduce actual payments made to borrowers. S&P stated that the biggest changes will be for gold-loan specialist companies like Muthoot Finance, Manappuram Finance, and Manappuram Finance. The report also warns that the gold sector could be more susceptible to sharp price corrections as lenders expand their risk appetite and explore different loan structures. Nishit Navin, Bengaluru. Edited by Nivedita Battacharjee.
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Japan re-signs long-term LNG contracts on AI boom and national energy plan
The emergence of artificial intelligence and the rising cost of cleaner energy, combined with a new energy plan and the rise in costs for cleaner energy, has brought Japan back into the limelight for LNG producers. Japan, which is the second largest LNG importer in the world, has secured long-term deals with Qatar, and other buyers are also securing such agreements. Japan's LNG exports have been falling for over a decade, as the nuclear power plants that were idled following the Fukushima catastrophe began to operate again and renewable energy sources grew. The AI boom will require enormous power consumption from data centres. Japan's 7th Strategic Energy Plan, released in February, identified gas as an important source of energy even after the country achieves its goal of achieving zero net carbon emission by 2050. Yukio KANI, CEO of JERA (Japan's largest power generator and LNG purchaser), said that the data centre boom is changing the curve. "If we need quick solutions for data centers, Japan needs LNG." This is an external change." Kani stated that the rising costs of alternative fuels such as hydrogen and ammonia have also dimmed the prospects for these fuels. He said, "Until two to three years ago, ammonia development was expected to be faster, but we now have paused." "In the last year or two, we have been switching back to LNG." STILL IN THE MIX According to the Japanese energy plan, if Japan meets its target of reducing emissions, it is expected that annual LNG demand will fall from 66 millions tons to 53-61 million tons by 2040. In a scenario with lagging decarbonisation technology, METI predicted that demand would rise to 74 millions tons. Amid price volatility and the risk of supply disruption, the plan calls for public/private cooperation in order to secure long-term fuel contracts. Under Japan's previous decarbonisation-focussed energy plan, gas importers had hesitated to sign long-term contracts. Takashi Uchida is the chairman of Japan Gas Association, and Tokyo Gas, the top city gas supplier. Lachlan Clancy, energy partner of Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer, said: "It is very clear that LNG can play a significant role as a fuel for transition, and now it is firmly in the mix during this investment cycle." According to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators in Japan, Japan has also auctioned new gas-fired capacity to replace coal power plants. In the last two years, 7 gigawatts were awarded. The organisation predicted that the capacity of LNG-fired power plants would increase to 85.75GW by 2034, from 79.98GW in 2024. According to Japan's Energy Plan, power generation is expected to increase between 12% and 22 % from levels in 2023 up until between 1,100 terawatt hours and 1,200 Terawatt Hours by 2040. The International Energy Agency predicts that Japan's data centers will consume 80% more energy, or 15 TWh by 2030. Morgan Stanley predicts that Japan's imports of LNG will reach 78 million tonnes in 2030, as the gas-fired generation of electricity increases amid rising costs for solar and wind energy. 'UNCERTAINTY AHEAD' Since METI's energy plan was released, Osaka Gas has signed a 15 year pact, Kyushu Electric Power announced that it would be signing a long-term contract with Energy Transfer. JERA also inked four deals of 20 years with U.S. companies NextDecade Infrastructure, Cheniere Marketing, and Commonwealth LNG. From late 2022 until early this year, Japanese purchasers announced three contracts longer than 10 years. Masanori Odaka, analyst at Rystad Energy, predicts that more deals will be made soon as utilities look to replace volumes expiring for supply security, and to meet seasonal demand. Last month, it was reported that JERA and Mitsui & Co were in discussions for a long-term supply of electricity from QatarEnergy’s North Field Expansion Project. There is still uncertainty about Japan's LNG demand, mainly because of its inability to meet its carbon neutrality goals and the pace at which it restarts nuclear plants. Importers have increased their trading operations to address this issue and are now pursuing flexible contracts. Tokyo Gas' Uchida said that, with the government providing multiple future scenarios it was no longer possible to give a definitive forecast for energy demand and supply. This highlights the uncertainty in the near future.
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London metals prices ease due to dollar strength and Middle East conflict
London metals prices dropped on Thursday due to a stronger dollar, while markets were focused on the developments in Israel-Iran. As of 0715 GMT, the LME's 3-month copper price was down by 0.52%, at $9,605 a metric ton. LME aluminium fell 0.6% to 2,532, while tin dropped 0.8% at $32,100. Zinc also declined 0.8%, to $2615.5. Lead dipped 0.18% to $1,989.5. Nickel was unchanged at $15,050. Dollar strengthened, buoyed up by demand for safe-haven assets due to the threat of a wider conflict in the Middle East with possible U.S. participation. Greenback prices of commodities are usually more expensive when the dollar is higher. Investors closely followed tensions in the Middle East as U.S. president Donald Trump kept the rest of the world guessing as to whether Washington would join Israel’s bombardment against Iranian nuclear sites. The conflict entered its seventh-day. ANZ stated that in the long term, "any sustained increase in energy prices will likely end up weighing on the copper markets due to the higher costs to producers," Copper supplies are limited, and stocks are low In LME-registered storage warehouses, 107,350 tonnes has dropped 60% since March and is at its lowest level since May 2024. The most traded copper contract on SHFE fell 0.39%, to 78.310 yuan (10,891.36) per ton. SHFE nickel rose 0.46%, to 118.890 yuan per ton, and lead rose 0.53%, to 16,925. Tin fell 0.05%, to 263,300. Aluminium eased 0.24%, to 20,585. Zinc shed 0.59%, to 21,865. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. Data/Events (GMT 1100 UK BOE June Bank Rate ($1 = 7.1901 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and Editing by Sherry Jacobi-Phillips; Sherry Li, Michele Pek)
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Dalian Iron Ore Gains after Five Days on Firming China Steel Production
The iron ore futures price ended a five-day loss streak on Thursday, amid increased steel production in the world's largest consumer China. However, gains were partly offset by a prolonged crisis on China's real estate market that continued to weigh down on demand prospects. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 698 Yuan ($97.07), up by 0.43%. As of 0703 GMT, the benchmark July Iron Ore traded on Singapore Exchange was up 0.6% at $92.95 per ton. Mysteel, a consultancy, reported that the daily consumption of iron ore fines for sintering increased by 2.4% on a weekly basis to 609 300 tons per day. This is the highest average daily usage in the last seven months. The mills used more feedstock in order to maintain the high production. Hexun Futures, a broker, said that despite the fact that downstream demand has slowed in China, inventories are still increasing. Steelhome data shows that total iron ore stocks across Chinese ports increased by 1.06% in a week to 133.4 millions tons on June 13. Hexun added that the market has become cautious and real estate sales have slowed. Official data released on Monday showed that China's new house prices dropped in May, continuing a stagnation of two years. Goldman Sachs projected late Monday that demand for new homes will remain below the 2017 market peak in the coming years. This suggests a property slump in the second largest economy in the world. Analysts at ANZ say that meaningful growth in steel demand and iron ore consumption is unlikely to occur until the new construction sector picks up. Coking coal and coke, which are used in steelmaking, also fell by 0.13% and 0.1% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have gained ground. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a rise in steel benchmarks. $1 = 7.1904 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jab-Phillips, Rashmi aich and Michele Pek)
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Mike Dolan: A weak dollar can soften the impact of any oil shock on Europe.
Oil-importing nations will not be able to avoid a blow in the event of a second energy price shock due to Middle East tensions. However, a rare period of dollar weakness can help soften the blow for other countries. The majority of crude oil prices are in U.S. Dollars, so the impact on regions such as Europe is magnified when the price increases during times of dollar strength. The dollar's decline has actually had the opposite impact, reducing the price of oil as a result of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. We're not in a'shock zone' yet, but we are still a long way from it. The dollar-based price of global crude oil has risen by about 14% in the last week. However, they are still well below their January peak and about 7% less than a year ago. The impact on Europe has been more benign, thanks to the 12% increase in the euro against the dollar this year. The euro price for Brent crude has fallen by 20% in the last year and is down 12% this year. The greenback's fall is a welcome respite for oil-importing countries, as it helps to soften the blow of soaring oil costs and limit the economic impact. If the dollar continues to fall, this could reduce the relative impact of a renewed squeeze on energy prices in Europe. This could, in turn support Europe's performance against the United States in this year, and further undermine the American exceptionalism narrative that has fuelled extraordinary portfolio flows into the U.S. over the past few years. The continued dollar weakness, coupled with a new drop in energy prices, would only increase pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates. This is to avoid a significant undershoot to its 2% inflation goal. INCREASINGLY INSTABLE According to UniCredit's Keller the dollar/oil relationship is another example of an economic relationship that has become, "increasingly instabile" this year. The dollar's correlation to stocks, bonds, and commodities has changed as foreign investors who have trillions invested in U.S. bonds and stocks began rethinking the dollar in light of America’s trade wars, reworked allies, and upended local institutions. The dollar's loss of its'safe-haven' status in times of stress and uncertainty is most obvious. It fell along with stocks and bonds, during an April that was turbulent. The link between the dollar and oil has become especially unstable. A stronger dollar, all else being equal should lower oil prices because it will reduce demand from non-Americans around the globe due to the additional local currency costs of a barrel. The opposite, theoretically, should also be true. In recent years the opposite was true. A spike in oil price after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered inflation, and steep Federal Reserve rate increases. This was followed by a subsequent drop in oil and inflation, and the start of a Fed easing program. The dollar's movement was closely correlated with the energy price during that period. The dollar index soared by 20% when the oil prices doubled between the mid-2021 and immediate aftermath of the Ukraine Invasion. This amplify the rising costs of energy for Europe. This relationship was broken again after the U.S. elections last year, when the dollar rose initially even though oil prices were falling. The dollar hasn't strengthened as much this month, despite the fact that the correlation was positive after January. This is because the rise in crude oil prices after the Israel/Iran conflict broke out did not coincide with the strengthening of the dollar. The greenback is still hovering near new lows. Relationships are influenced by the background, of course. The primary concern at the moment is that after a decade-long dollar strength, a multiyear unwind will be required as trade, investment and economic imbalances must be corrected. If this is the case, a new oil price spike will be less severe for global economies than it was last time. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
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UK farm switches milk for cuddles with cows after floods and high food prices have taken their toll
A dairy farm in England’s northeast has stopped milking cows after years of flooding and low food prices. Instead, visitors are charged to cuddle the cows. Dumble Farm began as a milk farm in the 1970s. However, flooding in recent years washed away crops and destroyed the grass that cows love to eat. In addition, the price of milk fell below the cost of production, which proved a difficult challenge. Fiona Wilson said that the amount of flooding, and pressure on the land made it impossible for the farm to continue. Climate change is affecting agriculture in Europe, and beyond, as farmers are suffering from increasing heat, flooding, and drought. Dumble Farm, in 2022, sold most of its milk cows, but kept a few. In an effort to reinvent itself, they began to offer "cow cuddling experiences" to fund a wildlife protection scheme. Visitors can stroke, cuddle and brush the cows lying on straw in a straw-covered enclosure within a barn for 95 pounds (127.80). This experience includes a Highland cattle safari. Emma Hutton, a 25-year-old guest, said that it was worth the effort to be so close to cows. They are gentle and loving. James McCune, a farmer, said that it took a year for the cows' comfort level to be raised. Now, the animals are fully accustomed to cuddling. "They enjoy being treated well." They are big dogs... McCune explained that it's like a spa for cows. The proceeds are used to create habitats for wildlife protection and to support endangered species such as lapwings. Wilson stated that it was great that visitors could fund the conservation program by visiting the farm. That's the real bigger picture.
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China's imports of iron ore are rising even as steel is struggling: Russell
China's imports of iron ore are expected to be their highest month in this year in June, a sign of resilience not mirrored by the steel industry's sluggishness. According to analysts LSEG & Kpler, China is expected to import nearly 110 million metric tonnes of this key raw material for steel. Kpler estimates that 109.56 millions tons of cargo will arrive in June, while LSEG predicts 109.1million. It would be an increase of about 11% over May's official imported 98.13 millions tons, and the best month since December's 112,49 million tons which was the second highest on record. Why are Chinese steel mills, traders and steel producers buying more iron ore despite the fact that both the domestic and international steel industry is showing signs of slowdown? Early in June, spot iron ore prices fell to their lowest level in eight months. Since the peak of $107.81 per ton in 2025 on February 12, the trend for iron ore futures at the Singapore Exchange has been downward. On June 18, they dropped to $94.17 per ton, the lowest level since September 30, before slightly recovering to finish at $94.30 a ton Wednesday. It's too late for the low of June to affect imports in this month. The lag between cargoes being arranged and delivered is too great. However, it's important to note that the Singapore price continues to drop steadily from its previous peak at the end of May. Restocking inventories may also have contributed to the higher imports of June. These stocks have been on a downward trend. SteelHome consultants SteelHome monitor port stockpiles In the week ending June 6, exports fell to their lowest level in 16 months, at 132 million tonnes. The strong imports so far in this month helped boost inventories to a total of 133.4 million tonnes in the week ending June 13. However, this is still below the 146.6 millions from the same period in 2024. Iron ore imports may continue to grow in the coming weeks but there are questions about how long they can do so if the steel industry is weak. STEEL SAGS According to data released by the Chinese government on June 16, China's steel production dropped dramatically in May, falling 6.9% from last year to 85.55 millions tons. In the first five month of this year, steel production fell 1.7% to 431.63 million tons. The state-backed China Iron and Steel Association said last week that the output was expected to drop 4% from 2024 this year. China's steel production is being affected by the struggles of its key property sector. This sector has shown little signs of positive response to the recent stimulus measures. China's new house prices dropped 0.2% in May, after showing no growth during the preceding month. Calculations based on the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on 16 June were able to confirm this. The latest statement from Donald Trump suggests that up to 55% of all imports will be taxed. The price of steel has also fallen. On Wednesday, Shanghai Exchange rebar contract prices ended at 2,982 Yuan ($414.74) per ton, down 14% since the year's peak, which was 3,466 Yuan on February 5. On June 3, the contract dropped to 2,912 Yuan per ton, its lowest level since February 2020. Exports, which increased by almost 10% in May compared to the same month last year, amounted to 10,58 million tons. Steel exports for the first five month of the year rose by 8.9%, to 48.47 millions tons. This is a record. China's steel exports may be a victim of its own success, as other countries increase their protectionist measures. India and the United States are two recent examples. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
Oil market torpor sends investors to other products: Kemp
International petroleum markets have ended up being calm again after massive interruptions brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the sanctions imposed in response by the United States and its allies.
Production and consumption are growing at similar rates; inventories are near normal; prices are close to typical when adjusted for inflation; and volatility is low-- all signs the market has found a balance after a tempestuous couple of years.
With a comfy production-consumption balance, hedge funds and other speculators have actually scaled back oil positions to redeploy capital to more interesting markets in power, gas, metals and soft commodities.
It marks a sharp contrast to the start of the year, when most forecasters expected stocks of crude and fuels to deplete as OPEC+ extended production restraint and the significant economies emerged from a downturn in 2022/23.
Chartbook: Oil costs and inventories
However the anticipated drawdown has not materialised as more powerful usage development has been satisfied by faster-than-anticipated increases in unrefined output from the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and some OPEC members.
The threat to global fuel products positioned by Ukraine's drone attacks on refineries in Russia, which peaked in the very first quarter of the year, has actually declined after pressure from the United States to alter the targeting program.
In the Middle East, fighting in between Israel, Hamas, Iran and the Houthis has actually not interrupted unrefined production and tanker circulations have actually been effectively re-routed to prevent attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
CALM AFTER THE STORMS
So far in May, Brent rates have actually been around $83 per barrel, which is precisely in line with the inflation-adjusted average considering that 2000, so it is not sending a strong signal to either producers or customers to alter their behaviour.
Reflecting the marketplace calm, everyday rate moves have actually been uncommonly small, with annualised volatility decreasing to simply 13%, in the fourth percentile for all overlapping durations considering that 1990.
Signalling a well balanced market, U.S. industrial crude stocks are simply 5 million barrels (-1%) listed below the previous ten-year seasonal average and the position has not changed considerably since the start of the year.
Combined U.S. stocks of gasoline, distillate fuel oil and jet fuel are only 14 million barrels (-4%) listed below the ten-year average and the deficit has actually narrowed considering that the start of the year.
The exact same calm has actually therefore settled over markets for refined fuels such as gasoline, diesel and heating oil.
Pump rates for gasoline including taxes have actually averaged $3.73. per gallon in May, just around 20 cents higher than the. inflation-adjusted average because 2000.
List prices for diesel have actually averaged $3.82 this month,. exactly in line with the inflation-adjusted average over the. very same period.
SPECULATORS LEAVE
Unsurprisingly, speculative investors have actually reduced their. positions to deploy money more beneficially somewhere else as they. conclude costs are unlikely to move anywhere in the short-term.
Hedge funds held a combined position across the six the majority of. essential petroleum futures and choices agreements equivalent to. 380 million barrels on May 21, below 685 million barrels six. weeks previously.
The combined position had actually been lowered to only the 16th. percentile for all weeks since 2013 down from the 66th. percentile on April 9.
Similar scaling back appears across all the futures and. choices agreements for crude and fuels as fund managers slash. their direct exposure to focus on more promising markets.
With oil settled into a period of calm, traders' interest. has actually shifted to other energy markets led by gas and power, still. adjusting to the aftermath of Russia's intrusion of Ukraine.
The focus has also moved to industrial metals, where. products have actually been stretched by fast deployment of electric. cars and grid upgrades as part of the transition to a future. energy system.
Associated columns:
- OPEC? likely to extend production cuts in June (May 3,. 2024)
- Oil traders sanguine about threats from Israel-Iran. conflict( April 18, 2024)
- Why the oil market declines to catastrophise( January 17,. 2024)
John Kemp is a market expert. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)