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Indonesia works to finalize scheme for ambitious Russian Oil Import Plan
An official revealed that Indonesia was working on a special scheme for imports and a regulatory framework in order to fulfill its 'plan' to import 150,000,000 barrels of oil from Russia this year. Data shows only one shipment had reached the country. The announcement last?month of the Russian 'import deal,' which is part of Indonesian attempts to offset shortages caused by the Iran War, came after President Prabowo met with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The market views the goal as ambitious even with the framework already in place. To deliver 150 million barrels by the end of January, it would take roughly 700,000 barrels of crude per day. This is close to the amount that Russia sends to buyers like Turkey. Oil traders said that Russia exports about 5 million barrels per day of crude oil, mostly to China and India. To allocate such a large amount to a new customer would require diverting oil away from other buyers, which may prove difficult. The Russian energy ministry didn't respond to a comment request immediately. Laode Sulaeman, a senior official in the?Indonesian Energy Ministry, told reporters that no company had yet been selected to import oil. He did not give a time frame. "Pertamina is bound by global bonds, and must avoid doing anything that could violate their global bonds. Sulaeman, referring to Indonesia's state energy firm, said that they are currently working on a plan. Pertamina's Muhammad Baron, who was asked about the plan to import, said that the process would be done in accordance with the government directives while prioritising principles of good corporate management and applicable regulations. Due to Western sanctions and the distances involved in delivering Russian crude, it is likely that such deliveries will be difficult and expensive. Oil?traders reported that shipping data indicated no direct crude shipments in the near future. Kpler data revealed the only recent shipment of Russian crude to be delivered to Indonesia on April 21, and was Arctic Novy grade. Indonesia imports about 1 million barrels per day and will continue to do so, even if Russian crude is produced, officials said. This will help ensure supply security. Jakarta also pursues crude imports, including from the United States. (Reporting from Fransiska and Bernadette in JAKARTA; reporters in MOSCOW, editing by Alexander Smith.)
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UAE's Gargash warns against a renewed war, despite '50-50' odds for a US-Iran agreement
The advisor to the president of the United Arab Emirates said that there is a 50-50 chance of a U.S. - Iran peace agreement. However, he stressed that any settlement should address the causes of instabilities in the region, if it's to prevent future conflict. Pakistan is mediating a U.S. - Iran ceasefire in order to end a war that has shaken 'the global economy, and disrupted the trade through the Strait of Hormuz. This route is a major one for oil and liquefied gas shipments around the world. "There is a 50% chance that we'll reach an agreement." Anwar Gargash said, "My concern is that the Iranians always over-negotiated," at the Globsec Conference in Prague. This is nothing new. Over the years, they have missed many chances?because of their tendency to overestimate?their cards. Gargash added, "I hope they don't make the same mistake this time." He said the region needed a political solution, and that a second round would complicate things. Gargash, however, stressed that if negotiations were aimed at achieving a ceasefire only and did not resolve the underlying issues they could set the stage for a future conflict. He added that "that is not what we are after." Iran has repeatedly attacked the UAE in the conflict. This includes strikes on civilian infrastructure, and areas near U.S. Military facilities that are hosted by the Gulf state. Emirati officials reported that Iranian drones and missile attacks targeted 'desalination facilities, energy facilities and areas around Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Gargash warned any control of the Strait of Hormuz could set a dangerous precedent by politicising the strategic waterway, and placing it at the Iranians' mercy. He said that any changes to the status quo of the Strait could have grave global repercussions. This would include Europe. He urged European countries to see this issue as being directly related to their energy security and commercial interests. He said that the Strait of Hormuz should return to its status of an international waterway, which ensured free trade, energy and maritime traffic as it did for decades. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton, Jana Choukeir and Maha El Dahan)
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One person is killed and several injured in an explosion at MOL’s Tiszaujvaros Petrochemical Plant
A petrochemical explosion in Tiszaujvaros in eastern Hungary has resulted in the death of a person, and serious injuries to several others. In a post on Facebook, Magyar stated that MOL's Zsolt Henadi and Istvan Kapitany, his minister of economy were on their way to the plant. Magyar posted a picture of 'huge black smoke billowing from the plant. An explosion occurred at MOL Petrochemicals in Tiszaujvaros, during the restarting of the Olefin 1, plant. MOL reported that firefighters had contained the fire and are still working to put it out. The company did not provide any further information. Kapitany said in a post on Facebook that, according to the latest information, a compressed exploded during the restart of the Olefin 1 facility and the fire is still being extinguished. The steam cracker is located at the petrochemical facility of MOL in Tiszaujvaros. MOL's Olefin-1 has a production capacity of approximately 370,000 metric tons of Ethylene per year. According to MOL, there are two steam-crackers with a 660 kt/y capacity in Tiszaujvaros. MOL uses the majority of its ethylene to produce polyethylene plastics that are sold to plastics and packaging industry.
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China presses Japan on rare earths, a repeat of the 2010 showdown
China has blocked Japan from obtaining several rare earths, heavy materials, and other minerals for at least four months. This coincides with a dispute over Taiwan between the two nations, indicating that Beijing is using its control of critical minerals to gain diplomatic leverage. Japan is the second largest producer of rare-earth magnets outside of China, but, like the rest of the globe, it is largely dependent on Beijing to import certain heavy rare earths, which are used in magnets, aerospace, and defence as well as gallium. Chinese customs data show that since December, Chinese exports to Japan of rare earth minerals such as dysprosium and terbium oxide, along with speciality metals gallium, have all but stopped, except for a small number of shipments of the yttrium. Major Japanese magnet maker Shin-Etsu ?has stopped accepting new orders for dysprosium-containing magnets, according to a Western customer who spoke on condition of anonymity. The company declined comment. The halt in exports began soon after a diplomatic row erupted over Taiwan in November. It is similar to Beijing's throttling exports of such materials to the U.S., during the current trade conflict. Beijing tightened its export controls in Japan twice, firstly, in January and then again, the month after, targeting conglomerates such as?the shipbuilding division and aero engine division of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Ryosei Acazawa is scheduled to attend a meeting on Saturday. He is the highest-ranking Japanese official to have visited China since the dispute began. Tokyo takes measures to release stockpiled supplies when necessary, but does not reveal details. An official from the Japanese Industry Ministry said that the government was aware of the concerns about rising prices and tightening supply. RARE EARTH DÉJA VU David Merriman said that Japanese companies were better protected from the pressure campaign because a similar drop in Chinese rare earth mineral exports?in 2010 led to the building of stocks. The Japanese have also tried to reduce the use of heavy rare Earths in magnets, and looked for alternatives. According to data, China continues to export normal quantities (of the rare earth magnets) used by the automotive and other industrial industries. Components maker TDK said it does not expect any major impacts and has been diversifying its sources of supply. Mitsubishi Motors announced in February that it has secured rare earths until mid-year. Japan has funded alternative producers, such as Lynas rare earths in Australia. Last year it became the first commercial producer outside China of separated terbium-dysprosium. The company has also launched rare-earth projects in Australia, France, and Australia. It will take years for the Chinese to replace their supply of heavy rare earths. Lynas will produce 8 metric tonnes of dysprosium in the first quarter 2026. In 2024, China exported 14 tons of these two minerals per month to Japan.
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Dollar nears six-week high as stocks rise amid uncertainty over Iran talks
As uncertainty surrounds the U.S.-Iran talks, global stocks rose and the U.S. Dollar hovered at its highest level in six weeks. Oil prices also edged higher. U.S. State Secretary Marco 'Rubio' said that there were "some positive signs" in the?talks aimed at ending the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. However, differences remain regarding Tehran’s uranium stocks and control of the strait. Investors are worried about the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a vital artery that supplies energy to the world. The oil price has soared and the outlook for global interest rates has changed due to inflationary fears. The MSCI World Stock Index rose by 0.22%. STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.43%. Nasdaq Futures rose 0.31%, and S&P500 futures rose 0.26%. S&P 500 index rose 0.17% to 7,445.72 on Thursday, after reaching 7,517.12 in the previous week. This is a new record high. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan increased by 0.74%. Japan's Nikkei rose 2.8%, barely missing a record high. This was due to artificial intelligence shares. Oil prices are also moving higher as investors weigh the risks that talks will drag out or break down, said Matt Britzman senior equity analyst of Hargreaves Lansdown. "The truth is, nobody knows the outcome of these negotiations. But, for now, the markets are moving tentatively as if good news was just around the corner." Brent crude futures were up 2% at $104.96 per barrel, but they are set to drop 6% for the week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures rose 1.35% to $97.64. The war's prolonged energy disruptions could have a ripple effect on prices around the world, prompting traders to price in rate increases in both developed and emerging market countries. The markets are pricing in more than 50% of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike by the end the year, compared to expectations of two rate reductions before the war began. This has boosted Treasury yields, and the dollar has also benefitted from safe-haven demands. The euro is at $1.1614 and close to its six-week low, which it reached on Thursday. It will drop 1% this month. The dollar stood at 99.247 against a basket. The Japanese yen was last trading at 159.11 to the dollar, dangerously close to the 160-level that traders fear will bring Japanese authorities back into the market. George Saravelos said that the energy prices must be reversed quickly, as the combination of fiscal expenditure and capex boom could lead to a lot more inflation, particularly in the U.S. Saravelos stated that the incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin?Warsh will have to choose between increasing volatility in front-end interest rates and helping the dollar or lowering them at the back end and hurting the dollar. He can't do both. In theory, Fed rate increases would push up short-dated yields. However, no action from the central bank may increase borrowing costs for long-term loans as the markets are pricing in higher inflation. Two-year U.S. Treasury rates rose by 1 basis point to 4.09% this week, while two-year bond yields in other major markets fell sharply. The dollar has remained strong against the yen despite an 'intervention' worth $65 billion by Tokyo a few weeks ago to shore up the currency. The last time it was up 0.1%, at 159.125?yen. The data on Friday revealed that Japan's core rate of inflation fell to its lowest level in four years in April. This complicates the Bank of Japan’s path of raising rates. Analysts said the stronger-than-expected first quarter GDP and firm April exports data earlier this week showed the resilience of the Japanese economy despite the energy shocks, which supported a Bank of Japan hike.
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Sources say that China's June fuel exports are set to increase slightly as restrictions remain in place
Three trade sources familiar with the issue said that China will only see a small increase in refined fuel exports from May to June, because Beijing plans to maintain export restrictions for a fourth month in order to protect domestic supply. Two sources said that June exports were estimated to be around 550,000 metric tonnes or slightly more than expected, compared to about 500,000 tons in May. The two sources and another person said that state oil firms must now seek approval from the government on a regular basis for every shipment they export. This is because China, the world's largest oil importer, has been dealing with disruptions to crude supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the war in Iran. National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Commerce didn't immediately respond to comments. According to two people, details?on the countries that will receive fuel from China have not yet been finalised. In April, China shipped small amounts of jet fuel, gasoline and diesel to Southeast Asia, Australia and other areas. One source said that diesel and jet-fuel will make up the bulk of exports for June, excluding Hong Kong. The remainder is gasoline. The same source said that fuel supplies to Hong Kong will be around 800,000 tons. This is compared to estimates of 910,000 tons in May. China's current export regime is a departure from previous years when the government issued a?second?batch? of refined fuel quotas, usually around April or may after the first batch?was issued in December of the previous year?. Beijing only issued one batch of a 19 million metric ton quota in December this year. According to two industry sources in China, diesel and gasoline export margins are still high, at nearly 3,000 Yuan ($441.11) per ton, respectively.
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Iron ore to suffer second weekly loss due to higher supply and concerns about demand
Iron ore prices began on a shaky footing?on Friday. They were poised to fall for a second consecutive week amid expectations?of rising supplies and a?seasonally weakened demand. However, resilient 'near-term' consumption in the top buyer China, curbed large losses. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's most traded iron ore contract closed the daytime trading down 0.13% to 792 yuan (116.51 dollars) per metric ton. This represents a 2.5% weekly drop. At 0700 GMT the benchmark June Iron Ore at the Singapore Exchange was 0.25% higher, $106.05 per ton. This represents a 2.8% decline so far this week. Earlier in the session, the?contract reached its lowest level since April 28, at $105.45. The sudden increase in the number of shipments arriving at Chinese ports from Australia and Brazil, two major suppliers, suggests that more shipments will arrive there over the next few weeks. Analyst Guiqiu zhuo at Jinrui Futures said that there is a general expectation that the steel demand will be seasonally lower, while the ore supply will increase in the second quarter. Zhuo stated that the combination of rising supplies and weaker demand would pressure iron ore price, although solid consumption for this key ingredient in steelmaking is currently limiting losses. Data from Mysteel revealed that the average daily hot metal output, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, increased by 0.6% compared to the previous week, reaching a record high of 2.41 million metric tons on May 21. Coking coal, and coke - the other ingredients in steelmaking - fell by 3.69% and 2% respectively. Galaxy Futures analysts said in a recent note that "coking coal inventories at some coking plant have recovered to a reassuring level after several rounds of restocking." They added that "some buyers were reluctant to accept higher coal prices and replenished only hand-to mouth, exerting downward pressure on coking coal prices." Steel benchmarks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have lost ground. Hot-rolled coils fell by 0.73%. Wire rods dropped 0.12%. Stainless steel dropped 0.64%. ($1 = 6.7975 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam, Mrigank Dhaniwala and Lewis Jackson)
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Document shows that the Indian steel ministry is pushing to eliminate metallurgical coal tariffs
According to a document reviewed by, India's Ministry of Steel asked the Ministry of Finance to remove?anti-dumping duties on low-ash coke imports. They cited inadequate domestic supplies and higher prices. India, the second largest crude steel producer in the world, imposed an anti-dumping provisional duty on imports of low-ash metallurgical coal - also known as metcoke – for a period of six months. India imports met-coke primarily from China, Indonesian, Poland, Japan and Switzerland. Industry?experts claim that import volumes have dropped sharply since curbs were implemented. In a memo dated May 18, the Steel Ministry referred to anti-dumping duty acronyms as ADD. Emails seeking comments from the ministries were not responded to. The Steel Ministry has highlighted the problems faced by the state-run Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd. (RINL), stating that the company was unable to obtain adequate quantities of met coke from the domestic market at reasonable prices, resulting in a 20 percent increase in input costs. The Steel Ministry memo stated that RINL's?operational viability and competitiveness?has been adversely affected due to inadequate met coke supplies. RINL didn't respond to an email asking for comment. The 'Steel Ministry' also raised concerns about small and medium-sized companies that rely heavily on met coke merchant suppliers. The report stated that "the domestic market has not been able?to ensure adequate availability of met-coke at competitive prices to meet the needs of the steel industry." (Reporting and editing by Mayank Bhahardwaj, Tom Hogue and Neha Arora)
UBS raises S&P500 annual forecast due to robust consumer spending and AI demand
UBS Global Wealth Management raised its 2026 S&P 500 'year-end forecast' to 7,900, up from 7,500. The company cited resilient consumer spending and strong demand for data center infrastructure.
Morgan Stanley, for example, forecasted 8,000 dollars by 2026, on the strength of AI-driven investments, and earnings optimism. This was despite the inflation risk associated with higher oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.
The current target of the wealth manager implies a 6% increase in the index's closing price, which was 7445.72.
The company also announced a target for the June 2027 index of?8,200, but kept its "attractive view" on U.S. It also raised its estimate of?2026 earnings per share to $335, up from $310.
In a note published on Thursday, UBS strategists stated that they still believe in the bull market's drivers: a resilient economy and profit growth; a Federal Reserve that is supportive of the AI rollout.
They said that the increase in profit estimates was concentrated. About half of it is due to semiconductor demand and memory chip prices, while another quarter comes from higher profits in the energy sector, along with rising data center investments.
According to LSEG's data, as of May 15, the first-quarter?S&P500 earnings are on track to rise almost 29% over last year.
UBS stated that the recent rises in oil prices and rates of interest could start to undermine these bullish factors. (Reporting by Akriti Shah in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai)
(source: Reuters)