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Investors weigh Fed rate stance as they assess US data and gold prices.
The gold price fell on Wednesday, as investors waited for U.S. employment data and assessed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious approach to rate cuts. However, a weaker greenback helped limit losses on bullion priced in dollars. As of 0217 GMT spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,330.68 an ounce while U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.3%, falling to $3,340.60. Holders of other currencies can now afford to buy bullion because the U.S. Dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in over three years. Gold prices have been consolidating since posting their strongest gains in the past two weeks. "The overall trend bias continues in favour of the upside at this time," said Ilya SPivak, Tastylive's head of global macro. Powell said that the U.S. Central Bank will "wait and see" how tariffs impact inflation before it lowers interest rates. This is a further rejection of President Donald Trump's demand for immediate rate cuts. The number of U.S. jobs opened in May was unexpectedly higher, but the decline in hiring is a sign that the labour markets has shifted down gear due to the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariffs against imports. Investors will now be awaiting the U.S. ADP Employment data due later today, as well as nonfarm payroll numbers on Thursday, for more insight into the labour market. Spivak stated that the biggest risk to gold is an unexpectedly high (NFP) result, but this seems unlikely. The U.S. Senate Republicans passed Trump's tax and spending bill Tuesday by a narrow margin. It is a package that cuts taxes, reduces social safety net programs, increases military expenditures, while adding $3.3 billion to the national debt. Trump was optimistic on Tuesday regarding a possible trade agreement with India, but sceptical about a similar deal with Japan. He also said that he would not consider extending the deadline of July 9 for countries to reach trade agreements. Spot silver fell 0.1% per ounce to $36.01, platinum dropped 0.4% at $1,344.91, and palladium rose 0.4% to $ 1,104.92.
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Investors' expectations for the OPEC+ summit have not changed much in terms of oil prices
The price of oil futures was little changed on the day of Wednesday, as investors were cautious ahead of this week's meeting of major producers to decide output levels for August. Brent crude rose 1 cent to $67.12 a bar at 0124 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 5 cents, falling to $65.40 a bar. Analysts said that demand expectations were boosted on Tuesday by a survey conducted by the private sector, which showed that factory activity in China, world's largest oil importer, increased in June. Brent oil has fluctuated between a high and low of $68.40 and $66.34 a barrel since June 25 as fears of disruptions to supply in the Middle East region producing region have diminished. Oil prices are in a tight range, as there is less geopolitical uncertainty and more nervousness about what OPEC might do to increase production. This was said by Phil Flynn. Senior analyst at Price Futures Group. The price has been held down by the expectation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies, including Russia, will increase their crude oil production in August by a similar amount to the large increases agreed upon in May, July, and June. Four OPEC+ members told four sources last week that the group intends to increase output by 411,000 barrels a day when it meets next month on July 6. According to Kpler data, the market has already seen the effects of previous OPEC+ increases. Saudi Arabia, which is the largest oil exporter in the world, increased its shipments by 450,000 bpd in June from May. This was the highest level in over a year. According to American Petroleum Institute figures, the crude oil inventory in the U.S. has increased by 680,000 barrels over the last week. The Energy Information Administration will release official data on Wednesday, 10:30 am ET. ET. Tony Sycamore is an analyst at IG. He said that the non-farm payrolls numbers due Thursday will determine the timing and depth of the interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve in the second half this year. Lower interest rates would spur economic activity, which in turn would boost oil demand. Investors also watch trade negotiations in advance of the tariff deadline set by U.S. president Donald Trump on July 9. Trump said on Tuesday that he does not plan to extend the deadline. (Reporting from Sudarshan Varadahan in Singapore, Editing by Christian Schmollinger).
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India's renewable energy output increases at the fastest rate in three years
In the first half 2025, India's renewable energy output grew at its fastest rate since 2022. According to an analysis of daily load dispatch data by the federal grid regulator, renewable power output increased 24.4% from January to June 2025 to 134.43 kilowatt-hours (kWh). In June, the share of renewables (excluding hydropower) reached a new record of over 17%. India's coal-fired electricity generation fell by nearly 3% during the first half of this year, as growth in overall power output slowed down to just 1.5%. Electricity production will grow 5.8% by 2024. A milder summer, due to an earlier-than-expected monsoon, and slowing economic activity have reduced coal demand, resulting in record domestic stockpiles and lower imports by the world's second-largest consumer of the fossil fuel behind China. According to Vikram V., vice president for corporate ratings at Moody's ICRA, renewable generation in India will continue to increase. This year, India is expected to add 32 gigawatts of renewable capacity, compared to about 28 GW by 2024. Government data shows that India has added 16.3 GW in wind and solar power capacity during the five months to May. After a long slowdown, the nation of South Asia has increased its wind and solar capacity. This is after it missed its target for 2022 of 175 GW. The country now wants to reach 500 GW non-fossil energy capacity, including nuclear and hydro power by 2030. This is nearly twice the current 235.6GW. S&P Global Commodity Insights stated in a report that "we believe this target is achievable but, in our base scenario, the goal may shift to 2032". Grid modernisation and energy-storage investments are crucial to support renewable integration. (Reporting from Sudarshan varadhan and Sethuraman NR, both in Singapore; editing by Shinjini ganguli).
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US Senate budget bill cuts money for filling oil reserves
The U.S. Senate budget bill, passed on Tuesday, reduces the amount of money that can be used to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve despite the fact that President Donald Trump promised on the first day of his second term in office to fill it to "the top". Joe Biden, former president, sold 180 million barrels of SPR, the highest amount ever, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. SPR was at its lowest point in 40 years when oil imports were more important to the U.S. The budget bill reduced the amount of money available for crude oil purchases in order to replenish the SPR from $1.3 billion to $171 millions. This is only enough money to purchase about 3 million barrels, instead of the 20 million barrels that are currently available at current prices. Rapidan Energy, an energy consultancy, informed clients that funding had been affected by the Senate’s need to cut budgets elsewhere, as they softened the green energy cuts in the House version. It was not clear when the U.S. House would vote on this bill. Trump stated on Tuesday that the SPR will be filled when market conditions are favorable, but he did not specify when or how. Even scheduled oil deliveries to the SPR after Biden purchased some crude last summer are seven months behind schedule. Biden had scheduled deliveries of 15.8 million barrels to the SPR between January and May. Only 8.8 million barrels have been delivered so far to the SPR, which the Trump administration has blamed on maintenance. The Senate bill kept a measure to cancel 7 million barrels in congressionally-mandated sales. Later in the year, lawmakers could repeal further mandated sales through legislation. SPR currently has approximately 403 million barrels. This is a far cry from the 727 millions barrels that it had in 2009, when it was the largest ever. The SPR is the largest oil reserve in the world. Under Biden's leadership, the U.S. achieved record oil production. Trump wants to increase this.
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UN expert: 'Lucrative business deals' help Israel sustain its Gaza campaign
In a report, a U.N. expert named 60 companies including major arms and technology firms. She accused them of supporting Israeli settlements in Gaza and their military actions, which she referred to as a "genocidal war." Francesca Albanese is an Italian lawyer who specializes in human rights. She is the Special Rapporteur of the United Nations on the Occupied Palestinian Territories. The report was compiled based on more than 200 submissions by states, human-rights defenders and companies. The report published late on Monday calls for companies not to do business with Israel, and that executives who are implicated in alleged international law violations be held legally accountable. Albanese wrote that the 27-page report showed why Israel's genocide is continuing: it is profitable for many. She accused corporations of being "financially tied to Israel's militarism and apartheid." Israel's Geneva mission said that the report was "legally unfounded, defamatory, and a flagrant misuse of her position". The Israeli foreign ministry and prime minister's office have not responded to requests for comments. The U.S. Mission to the United Nations, New York, called on U.N. Sec.-General Antonio Guterres for a condemnation of Albanese. They also demanded her removal. Israel rejected the accusations of genocide against Gaza. It cited its right to self defense following a Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 that resulted to 1,200 deaths and 251 hostages according to Israeli statistics. Gaza Health Ministry reports that the war in Gaza, which followed, has resulted in the death of more than 56,000 individuals and the destruction of the entire enclave. Arms FIRMS Identified in Report The report divides the companies into sectors, such as military or technology. It does not always specify if the companies are involved in the Gaza campaign or settlements. The report said that 15 companies had responded directly to Albanese’s office, but they did not publish the replies. The article names Lockheed Martin, Leonardo and other arms companies as having used their weapons in Gaza. The report also names heavy machinery suppliers Caterpillar Inc. and HD Hyundai. It claims their equipment contributed to the destruction of property in Palestinian territory. "Foreign military sales are government-to-government transactions. Lockheed Martin's spokesperson said that the U.S. Government is best suited to discuss these sales. No one else responded to our requests for comment. Caterpillar previously stated that it expects to use its products in accordance with international humanitarian laws. The technology giants Alphabet (Alphabet), Amazon, Microsoft and IBM are "central to Israel’s surveillance apparatus and ongoing Gaza destruction". Alphabet has defended the $1.2 billion contract it signed with Israel's government for cloud services, saying that this was not a military or intelligence operation. Palantir Technologies also provided AI tools to Israel's military. However, specifics about their use weren't included. The report adds to a U.N. database that was last updated in 2023 and lists new companies, as well as alleged links to the Gaza conflict. The 47 members of the U.N. Human Rights Council will receive it on Thursday. The U.N. Human Rights Council does not have legal binding power, but cases that were documented through U.N. investigations often inform international prosecutions. Israel and the United States withdrew from the Council in the first half of this year citing bias towards Israel.
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Spain and the World Bank push for wider use 'debt Swaps'
The Spanish Ministry of Economy announced on Tuesday that the two countries have teamed up to "swap" debts to free money for conservation and development in poorer nations. The Ministry of Economy in Spain announced on Tuesday that the country has partnered with the World Bank to help poorer countries free up money to spend on development and conservation via debt "swaps". The Spanish government announced that the Global Hub for Debt swaps for Development will provide financial and technical assistance to countries looking at debt swaps for climate change and food security. In recent years, nations from Barbados to Belize and Ecuador to Ivory Coast used debt swaps. They bought back expensive bonds or loans and secured refinancing agreements with lower rates. In recent years, debt-for nature swaps have accounted for $6 billion in transactions where a country reduces its debt in exchange of a promise to invest in conservation. In recent years, development banks have played a key role in reducing the cost of swapped loans and generating savings. They do this by providing insurance or guaranteeing the risk. Critics claim that such deals are time-consuming and complicated, and this has hindered a wider adoption of an important tool for helping countries reduce their debt burdens and tackle development issues. Carlos Cuerpo, Spain's Minister of Economy, Trade, and Business, stated that many countries have made it clear they need tools to make debt swaps easier, faster, and more accessible. The Hub will receive 3 million euros (3,54 million dollars) from Spain. World Bank President Ajay Banaga said that the Hub would be a host for a "multiple-partner trust fund" to finance technical assistance. TIMELY This push is timely for the debt-swap market, amid fears that U.S. support for these deals - especially those with a focus on climate or nature - may largely dry up under Donald Trump. Ilan Goldfajn, President of the Inter-American Development Bank, said that demand for broad development swaps is still strong. He made this statement at a press conference held in Seville, on Tuesday. IDB backed five out of nine of the largest debt-for nature swaps in the past, most of which were carried out with the United States International Development Finance Corporation. Goldfajn stated, "We're getting requests for debts for education and debts for health." These are things which have been in construction. "Let's see what they become." A group of conservation groups and investors, as well as development bankers, lawyers, and other professionals who have been at the forefront of the market's growth, published a guide on best practices for nature swaps in an attempt to encourage wider adoption. The guide included information on how and who to use debt swaps. Melissa Garvey said that debt swaps are now "a proven model for financing conservation at scale."
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South America is shivering in the cold as Europe sizzles
While Europe and North America suffer through heatwaves, South America is experiencing a similar extreme weather event at the opposite end: a sudden freezing snap. On Tuesday morning, residents of Buenos Aires bundled up in scarves and wore wooly hats as they sipped warm drinks while frost covered cars. The temperatures in the city fell below zero. This is a rare occurrence, even during the winter in the Southern Hemisphere which is now underway and runs in opposition to the seasons in the Northern Hemisphere. Juan Manuel Amnini wore a gray hat with a wool face cover to protect himself from the cold. You can cover yourself with anything you have. "I'm like an onion, wearing layers upon layers of clothing." Meanwhile, in Europe, Italy has banned outdoor work from certain areas while France closed schools and a part of the Eiffel tower. Spain has confirmed that it had its hottest ever June as a severe heatwave gripped Europe and triggered widespread health warnings. Authorities in Barcelona were investigating whether the death of an street sweeper at the weekend was due to heat. Since late June, temperatures have consistently been high in the northern and central swaths of the United States. There have been heat warnings issued in large areas. This is part of a pattern that has been linked to climate changes, with temperatures rising earlier and lasting for longer. The impact of asphalt and concrete in urban areas is amplified by their ability to absorb and radiate heat. The cold snap in Argentina, as well as Chile and Uruguay's neighbors, led to snowfall in unexpected places. Chilly winds from Antarctica blew south. Residents said that many homes and offices weren't built to withstand these conditions. Gael Larrosa, a student from Buenos Aires, said: "Right Now, I have a thermal under my clothes, a couple of trousers and another pair on top." I have a hard time with cold. The cold here kills, and it kills. Reporting by TV, writing by Adam Jourdan. Cynthia Osterman is the editor.
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Powell's comments and data gauged the impact of Powell's comments on US yields, stock prices, and US stocks.
Investors weighed the latest economic data from the United States and remarks by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell in order to determine when interest rates will be cut. Powell said at a central bank conference in Sintra that he couldn't say whether July would be too soon for a rate reduction, but "it will depend on the data and we are going from meeting to meeting." According to CME's FedWatch Tool the market expectations for a rate cut in July briefly increased to 21,2%, up from 18,6% in the previous session. However, they then declined to 19,1%. The Dow Jones rose about 1% on Wall Street but the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq remained in check after reaching record levels Monday. This was partly due to a nearly 6% increase in Tesla following President Donald Trump's threat to stop the federal subsidies worth billions that Elon Musk’s companies receive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 427.24, or 0.99%, to 44,522.63. The S&P 500 increased 1.03, or 0.02% to 6,206.19. And the Nasdaq Composite dropped 107.68, or 0.5%, to 20,262.06. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 0.32 points, or 0.03% to 918.21, while the pan-European STOXX 600 closed down 0.21%. Concerns over the impact of the tariffs on the global economy were reignited as the deadline of July 9 by Trump drew closer. The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. manufacturing was still in contraction in June. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that the number of openings had increased by 374,000, to 7.769 millions, on the last day in May. However, a decrease in hiring suggested the market might have slowed. Brian Jacobsen is the chief economist of Annex Wealth Management, a company in Menomonee falls, Wisconsin. "Despite a big jump in job openings, the economy remains stuck in Powell's equilibrium, which says, 'no fire, no hire'. It's not an equilibrium that is stable and, if you look at the ISM Manufacturing data for the summer, it may be the case that the job market will become weaker. Investors are closely watching the key government payrolls data due out on Thursday, a day sooner than usual because of the Independence Day holiday. This report will help to shape their expectations about rate cuts by the Fed. After the data, U.S. Treasury rates reversed their course and moved higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes rose 2.9 basis points to 4,255%. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates from the Federal Reserve (usually based on their forecasts), rose by 6.2 basis points, to 3.783%. Trump's tax-cut and spending legislation continued its advance, as the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate passed by the thinnest of margins, and now heads back to the House of Representatives for final approval. "It will create some problems for fixed income markets as we continue spending no matter which party in power is in office, and that, in the end, is a negative for stock market," Rick Meckler said, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments, in New Vernon, New Jersey. Investors are not worried about inflation and continue to purchase stocks. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) is on course to end an eight-session streak of declines. The euro fell 0.03% to $1.1782, while the pound fell 0.01% at $1.3732. The dollar fell 0.26% against the Japanese yen to 143.63. The Bank of Japan Tankan Index of Business Sentiment showed that the largest economies in the region are likely to be holding up despite tariffs. A separate survey of the private sector revealed that the manufacturing sector in Japan expanded for the first time since 13 months in June. U.S. crude oil rose by 0.4% to $65.37 per barrel. Brent was up to $67.05 a barrel, a 0.46% increase on the day.
Barclays lowers Brent oil forecast for 2025 on the basis of soft demand
Barclays lowered their 2025 Brent Oil price forecast on Friday by $9 per barrel. This was due to a weaker demand outlook in the face of increased economic uncertainty.
Brent crude futures traded at around $70 per barrel on Friday after closing 1.5% lower the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was around $67 per barrel.
Barclays analysts said that they were "neutral" on oil prices compared to the curve. They also revised down their 2025 demand forecast to 510,000 barrels a day, due to low-frequency indicators being soft and economic uncertainty increasing.
It said: "However we don't turn bearish in relation to the curve as inventories are still low and declining and risks for the supply outlook are also skewed towards the downside due to producers who are price sensitive pulling back, and geopolitical pressures."
The International Energy Agency
Warning: Thursday
Global oil supply may exceed demand this year by 600,000 barrels a day due to the U.S.-led growth and lower-than-expected demand.
Barclays has also sharply lowered its outlook for oil demand, now expecting a growth of 900,000. barrels per a day in the entire year. (Reporting from Brijesh Patel and Anmol Chaubey in Bengaluru, Editing by Paul Simao.)
(source: Reuters)