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Iraq faces 2025 financial squeeze in the middle of oil rate decline, consultant to PM states

Iraq faces a spending plan crunch in 2025 due to the downturn in the rate of oil, the frustrating source of federal government earnings, a top financial advisor to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia alSudani said.

We do not prepare for significant issues in 2024, but we require more stringent financial discipline for 2025, Mudher Saleh told Reuters in an interview late on Monday.

Iraq, OPEC's second-largest manufacturer, is greatly reliant on oil earnings. The hydrocarbons sector accounts for the huge majority of export profits and some 90% of state income.

This big dependence on oil makes Iraq especially susceptible to changes in global crude rates.

Still, Iraq increased its budget plan in 2024 even after record spending in 2023, when majority a million additional employees were employed into the already-bloated public sector and a capital-intensive nationwide facilities revamp started.

The 2024 budget rose to 211 trillion dinars ($ 161 billion). from 199 trillion dinars ($ 153 billion) in 2023, maintaining a. forecasted deficit of 64 trillion dinars, Saleh stated.

The spending plan assumes an oil price of $70 per barrel in 2024,. around $6 less than the likely typical rate this year.

Saleh stated that paying salaries and pensions on time stay. a leading priority. They represent 90 trillion dinars ($ 69. billion), or over 40% of the budget plan, and are a key element of. social stability in Iraq.

The federal government will pay salaries even if it costs. whatever. Salaries are holy in Iraq, he stated.

Facilities advancement, on the other hand, might be refocused on. the most strategic jobs - such as crucial road and bridge works. in the capital Baghdad - if the state finds itself in a. monetary crunch, he stated.

To bolster financial resources, Iraq is focusing on increasing non-oil. incomes through improved tax collection but is not exploring. any new levies, Saleh stated.

He approximated that Iraq loses approximately $10 billion annually due. to tax evasion and customs-related problems.

Issues for the 2025 budget show a difficult international. oil market. Oil rates have actually been on a downward pattern given that. mid-2022, with Brent crude, the global criteria, falling. from over $120 per barrel to listed below $75 in recent days.

This decline is mostly attributed to weakening international. demand, particularly from China, the world's biggest oil. importer, as its financial growth decreases. $ 1 = 1,300 dinars.

(source: Reuters)