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Investors eye possible US-Europe trade deal as deadline looms

Investors hope that a possible trade agreement between the U.S., and European Union will bring more certainty to the markets before next Friday's deadline for tariffs. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, was scheduled to meet Donald Trump in Scotland on Sunday after EU officials and diplomatics had said that they were expecting to reach a framework agreement this weekend. Trump said on Friday that there was only a 50-50 or less chance of the U.S. and EU reaching a trade deal.

The trade tensions between Europe and the U.S. may have given some investors a reason to be cautious. This is according to Sameer Samana. He is the head of global equity and real assets for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

It's our largest trading relationship... If that last piece falls in place, you will probably have at least a few more people who need to return to the markets," Samana explained. It's a source that will disappear.

The officials and diplomats stated that a deal would include a baseline 15% tariff on all EU products entering the U.S., and likely a 50% duty on European steel and aluminium.

The optimism about easing trade tensions in general has pushed U.S. stock prices to record highs. Stocks fell in the immediate wake of Trump's "Liberation Day," April 2, announcement that sweeping tariffs would be applied to all countries. This was due to fears about recession, which have since subsided.

Investors have braced themselves for an increase in volatility as the U.S. sets August 1 as a deadline to raise levies against a wide range of trading partners.

Trump said that he will increase the tariffs to 30% by August 1 on all EU goods. The EU faces U.S. duties on more than 70 percent of its exports. These include 50% on steel, aluminum and cars, and 25% on car parts. After Trump's trade deal with Japan, hopes for a deal in Europe increased.

Capital Economics analysts said that the deal with Japan, and likely the one with the EU soon afterward, are of particular importance because both countries are important U.S. trade partners. They account for about a quarter each of the country's goods imports.

The agreement with Japan will reduce the existing tariffs on the auto sector of the United States, which account for more than 25% of the exports. Previously, these levies were as high as 27.5%.

Capital Economics stated that an agreement lowering EU auto tariffs by 15% would be a "big deal" not only for the region, but also because about 10% of the region's shipments to the U.S. fall into the same category. Over the weekend, investors were also keeping an eye on developments in the trade between the U.S.A. and China. Next week, officials from both countries will meet in Stockholm to discuss the extension of an August 12 deadline to negotiate a deal. (Reporting and editing by Alden Bentley, Edward Tobin and Lewis Krauskopf)

(source: Reuters)