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Oil prices expected to stay tethered near $80 a barrel

Experts were less bullish on oil in February for a fourth straight month, with ample supplies seen holding prices near $80 a barrel this year as the Middle East conflict has only a modest influence on crude flows, a survey revealed on Thursday.

A survey of 40 experts and economists anticipate Brent crude would average $81.13 per barrel in 2024, somewhat down from the $81.44 agreement in January. U.S. crude projections were cut to $76.54 a barrel, from $77.26 last month.

Interruption in the Red Sea has less effect due to the fact that there are alternative paths offered, stated John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors, referring to attacks on shipping by Yemen's. Houthis.

It is not likely that the volumes of oils being shipped will. be materially affected, and supply/demand principles will be a. more important aspect as we move into Q2 and Q3, he added.

Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs forecast a summertime Brent peak. of $87 per barrel, noting that the geopolitical threat premium. remains modest, with just a $2 per barrel boost to Brent, and. crude production remaining untouched.

Spare capability has reached a multi-year high, which will. keep overall market belief under pressure over the coming. months, stated Florian Grunberger, senior expert at data and. analytics firm Kpler.

The largest OPEC manufacturers and some of their allies - a. group known as OPEC+ - have the capability to pump more oil as a. effect of choices to curb output.

It is not till bigger voluntary cuts get launched back. into the marketplace during the summer season, as soon as international balances. tighten, that we'll see a prospective decrease in extra capacity. and a modification in total sentiment, Grunberger stated.

OPEC+ in November consented to voluntary output cuts amounting to. about 2.2 million bpd for the very first quarter. The group is. anticipated to reveal a choice in March on whether it. will extend these cuts to strengthen costs.

The International Energy Company estimates that OPEC's overall. spare capability is 5.1 million barrels per day (bpd), of which. 3.2 million bpd is held by Saudi Arabia.

Production cuts have supported oil prices, but some members. appear progressively eager to increase output, said William. Weatherburn, analyst at Capital Economics.

OPEC's own forecasts for oil demand are relatively robust, and. this may be used to justify a minor boost in output in. second quarter, he added.

(source: Reuters)