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Aluminium falls on a stronger dollar but is headed for the biggest weekly gain of a month
Aluminum prices fell on Friday as a stronger currency and mounting fears of an economic recession - after fading hopes for a quick 'end' to the Iran War - outweighed supply concerns that kept the metals on course for a week gain. As of 0152 GMT, the most traded aluminium at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.66% to 24,690 yuan (US$3,586.94). This week it has gained 3.2%, which is the largest weekly gain for a month. The London 'Metal Exchange (LME), which is closed for Easter on Friday and Monday, will remain closed. The dollar increased after U.S. president Donald Trump's speech about Iran shattered market expectations of a quick end to the war and rekindled fears of inflation, interest rate increases, and a possible recession. The dollar's strength makes commodities priced in greenbacks less affordable to investors who use other currencies. Prices for the light metal, which is used in construction, packaging, and transport, reached a near four-year high earlier this week. The attacks by Iran on two Middle East aluminium manufacturers heightened fears that the Gulf region, which accounted for 9% of global supply before the war, would suffer a greater'supply loss. The Iranian war has tightened global supply, boosting margins and causing some of the earlier estimates for flat shipments to be revised higher. Other SHFE metals saw a 0.1% drop in copper, a 0.09 percent decline in nickel, a 0.55% decrease for tin, and 1.18% reductions in zinc, while lead increased by 0.18%.
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McGeever: The 'no hire' US economy is exposed by the war in Iran.
The U.S. employment?growth has virtually slowed to a standstill. This was acceptable for policymakers and investors before the Iran war. It shouldn't be so now. Since a while, the labor market has steadily declined, but it has been hidden by a?headline unemployment rate that has risen, but only gradually. It is still low by historical standards at 4.4%. The labor market is stagnant. JOLTS, the closely watched Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released this week, showed that hiring has now reached its lowest level since April 2020. It's possible that hiring will not pick up in the next few months. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures are expected on Friday to show that the U.S. created a total of 60,000 nonfarm jobs in March. This would give a monthly average of around 30,000 in the first three months. The average six-month monthly payroll growth was negative just a few months back. This is not sustainable for the world's largest economy, a $30 trillion juggernaut, with a workforce of 170 million. The increase in incomes leads to an increase in spending, economic activity and, ultimately, growth. Low hiring slows down the flow of tax revenue into the government's coffers. This puts a strain on public finances. BREAKEVEN JOB GROWTH IS NOW AROUND ZERO The fall in "breakeven" employment growth can explain the puzzle of a relatively stable unemployment rate despite evaporating jobs growth. This is the level of employment required to maintain the unemployment rate. According to a Dallas Fed report published this week, three years ago there were around 250,000 new jobs created each month. It has been declining steadily ever since and is now almost zero. This means that the unemployment rate is stable even if the economy barely creates any jobs. Normaly, a slowing of the?demand for employees should be a warning sign that the unemployment rate will soon rise, that the economy has slowed, and the recession risk is increasing. A job growth rate below the estimated breakeven level is a more alarming warning. The labor supply is also decreasing rapidly. This is largely because of the Trump administration’s policy to reduce net immigration. The longer-term impacts are yet to be determined. Currently, however, they are compensating for the decline in hiring. The jobs market might appear stable from the outside if the labor supply and demand is roughly equal, and the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable. It's a bad labor market. No longer so ruthless or confident The fragile labor market is also more susceptible to breaking, which puts the delicate balance at risk. Energy prices are structurally higher and inflation is rising due to the supply shocks caused by the Middle East conflict. These prices will continue to rise at least through the end of this year and possibly beyond. This means that consumers' bills and company costs are likely to increase. Gasoline is over $4 per gallon and oil is above $100 a barrel. Household budgets are under pressure. The financial climate has tightened and businesses have been hampered by rising input costs, such as energy and transportation. Spring and summer season factors are also a hindrance to hiring. The Federal Reserve ?paused its interest-rate-cutting cycle in January, and policymakers seemed more confident that downside risks to the labor market were diminishing. Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, said that artificial intelligence-driven productivity growth could help complement the "low-hire and low-fire" labor dynamics, which he believes will keep inflation under control. This was a common view before the Iran War. The economy is looking less robust, much like the labor market. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Trafigura denies Bolivia's claim of its fuel contract being suspended
Trafigura has not ceased its contracts with Bolivia's oil and gas state company YPFB, a spokesperson for the company said on Thursday. The company was rejecting a claim made by Bolivian Energy Minister Mauricio Medinaceli. Medinaceli announced on Tuesday that Bolivia will suspend its gasoline contracts Trafigura, and with rival trading house Vitol, until the investigation into the alleged smuggling of poor-quality fuel from Chile is completed. Later, on Thursday, YPFB confirmed its main supply contracts are still in effect, ensuring a?continuity of supply. The state-owned company has announced that it has signed an addition to its existing contract with Vitol in order to set stricter limits on gum and manganese. YPFB stated in a press release that the?new quality standards exceed current Bolivian regulation and will be implemented without additional costs to the state. The spokesperson for Trafigura said that the contracts between Trafigura & YPFB did not include the supply of fuel. "Trafigura always fulfilled its contractual obligations and received no complaints or claims from YPFB relating?to product quality or 'any other?? matter. The contracts are still in force and not suspended." Vitol couldn't be reached immediately for comment. Medinaceli announced the decision 'after the government reported that 5,000 tanker truck carrying adulterated gasoline had entered Bolivia through a transnational network of smugglers. It is estimated that $150 million in adulterated gas was moved between October 2025 to March 2026. Reporting by Robert Harvey and Daniel Ramos in London; Editing by Jan Harvey
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Oil prices soar and stocks end in volatile trade
Oil prices soared on Thursday, and equity markets around the globe were volatile as traders weighed contradictory developments and remarks related to Iran war. As some major Wall Street indices and U.S. Bond prices retraced gains after news broke that Iran and Oman were drafting a protocol to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The day after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will "hit Iran extremely hard" over the next few weeks, and "bring [them] back to the Stone Ages," the U.S. oil prices soared by nearly 8%. Wall Street's stocks finished mixed on the last trading day of the week before Good Friday. Gold prices dropped as the U.S. Dollar gained. Government bond yields increased on the expectation that an inflation spike would force central banks to increase interest rates or at least hold them. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies, including the yen and the euro) rose by 0.44%. Felix-Antoine Vezina Pouirier, BCA Research, said that Tehran and Washington had exchanged a cacophony in the last 48 hours. Some of these statements suggested a rising likelihood of de-escalation. GeoMacro strategists provide a simple guideline for weighing headlines that are volatile: stick to the facts. The shipping through Hormuz increased in the last few days. Second, Iran has deliberately "shifted away from GCC targets (Gulf Cooperation Council), toward 'Israeli' targets." WALL STREET POINTS WERE LOWER The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 0.35%, to 993.18. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 0.13%, to 46,504,67. The S&P 500 gained 0.11%, to 6,582.69, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.18%, to 21,879.18. In an address that was closely watched on Wednesday, Trump stated that U.S. attack on Iran will be intensified in the next two-three weeks. This was just one day after Trump said the U.S. will be "out Iran pretty soon." Both the pan-European STOXX 600 and Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 indexs lost 0.2%. The Kospi Index in South Korea fell 4.7%. Prashant Nnewnaha, senior rate strategist at TD Securities said: "The only question that matters is whether or not the Strait of Hormuz opens soon." Trump said earlier on Wednesday that the U.S. The U.S. Spot gold dropped 1.85% to $4.669.05 per ounce, and U.S. Gold Futures fell 2.8% at $4.679.70. India's central banks has banned the trading of non-deliverable futures to stop the rupee from falling to record lows. The currency rose 2% after the move, but analysts were unsure how long it would last. Brent?futures rose 7.78% to $109.03 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate ended up 11.41% at $111.54. Jon Withaar, Pictet Asset Management, said that the fact that "boots on the ground" were not ruled-out (during Trump’s TV address), and that the threats to strike infrastructure were repeated, would put the market 'on the defensive'. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note fell by 1.6 basis points to?4.305%. The yield on the two-year notes, which usually moves in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve was flat at 3.803%. The yields on the benchmark Bunds in the Eurozone ended a three-day slide and traders increased their bets that interest rates will rise. The yield of the benchmark German 10-year increased by 0.1 basis points, to 2.996%.
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Israel's Leviathan Gas Field to resume operation after war shutdown: Energy Ministry
The 'Israeli energy minister' announced a resumption of?operations at the offshore israeli?Leviathan field after a one-month war shutdown. Since the U.S., Israel and Iran launched their attacks against Iran on February 28, the?field operated by Chevron has been closed. In a press release, a spokesperson for the energy ministry said that "after situation assessments and an?review? of all relevant factors?it has been decided at this stage?to return?the Leviathan platform?to operation. The supply of natural gas will continue to be supplied to the local market and will now be increased by adding another platform to the production systems. Leviathan, one of the largest gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean with a recoverable gas estimated at 635?bcm, is a large gas field. Chevron, along with its partners, approved plans in January to 'vastly increase production' at the field. The resulting?project is expected to supply Egypt and other countries with natural gas worth more than $35 billion. The expansion is expected to 'boost gas supplies from Leviathan in the region and Europe by 9 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, flowing at about?21bcm.
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Pakistan increases fuel prices by more than 50% amid escalating Mideast conflict
Pakistan raised consumer prices for petrol and diesel by more than 50% on Thursday, its second price hike in less than one month. This was due to the rising global oil prices, which were sparked by the conflict in the Middle East. Diesel prices will rise by more than 55%, to 520.35 Rupees ($1.88) a litre. Petrol prices are expected to increase by 55% or so to 458.40 Rupees a litre. The price increase was inevitable due to the international markets prices spiraling out of control following the US-Iran War, Pakistan's Petroleum Minister, Ali Pervaiz?Malik said at a press conference broadcast on state television. He also spoke with the country's Finance Minister. Last month, the South Asian country raised the prices of diesel and petrol for consumers by around?20%. They cited higher oil prices caused by the U.S./Israeli war against?Iran. This decision will likely lead to a rise in inflation, which will hit Pakistan's poor population. Pakistan imports most of its oil from Saudi Arabia and UAE via the Strait of Hormuz. In a separate news conference, the country's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb announced subsides aimed at providing relief to?small farmers and motorcyclists as well as intercity transportation goods and passengers. Malik stated that the government has given a subsidy worth 129 billion rupees over the past three weeks. However, it is no longer affordable because of the increase in international oil prices. He said that, "Since resources are limited and no end to the war is in sight," there was no way to continue with blanket subsidies. U.S. crude oil prices rose more than 11% on Thursday. Brent prices also soared in volatile trading, a day after Donald Trump announced that military operations will be intensified.
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Bloomberg News reports that SpaceX aims to raise more than $2 trillion in its IPO.
Bloomberg News reported that Elon Musk's SpaceX boosted?its IPO target valuation above $2 trillion. Citing people familiar with the issue, the report set the stage for the biggest stock market listing ever. Bloomberg News reported that SpaceX's advisers and SpaceX are circulating the figure?to potential investors for its initial public offering. They added that the details of the IPO may still change. The startup recently submitted confidential IPO paperwork to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and plans to launch its market later this year. According to the report, Starbase, Texas, a firm headquartered in Texas, could raise up to $75?billion. This would surpass the 2019 IPO by Saudi Aramco which is the largest ever. A previous expectation of $1.75 trillion valuation already sparked debate about how much value was driven SpaceX's cash generating Starlink business, and how much premium could be added to its dominance of space launches and unproven ventures like Starship and space based AI. SpaceX didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. The IPO 'comes a few months after Musk merged SpaceX and his artificial intelligence startup xAI in a deal valued at $1 trillion for the rocket company, and $250 billion for Grok, its chatbot developer. Rocket maker is lining up investors for its IPO well in advance. ?It had discussed?with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund taking an anchor stake in the IPO of about $5 billion, reported on Thursday.
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Cubans protest US sanctions by riding electric tricycles and bikes
Cuban activists rode electric tricycles and bikes along Havana’s Malecon boulevard on Thursday, accompanied by Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel. The demonstration was a defiance against U.S. attempts to starve Cuba of fuel. Participants in a government-organized car caravan rode by the U.S. embassy in Cuba's capital with their pedal and electric-powered vehicles, displaying banners and flags criticizing the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration. The rally was held a day after Cuba’s top diplomat in Washington invited the U.S. to help rebuild Cuba’s crippled economic system as part of ongoing negotiations that are yet to produce results. Participants at the rally stated that they "favored" talks with Cuba but demanded respect from the United States. Sheila Ibatao is a Havana student of law who participated in the event. She said: "I think that a genuine dialogue between two governments is possible. But international law and our nation's autonomy must both be respected." Diaz-Canel did not speak at the event. Cuban officials often hold large rallies in front of the U.S. embassy. This caravan was more discrete and smaller, and hampered by fuel shortages that have crippled mobility. This week, a Russian-flagged ship arrived in Cuba and unloaded?700,000. barrels of crude, promising relief in the coming months. The Trump administration has said that it allowed the Russian flagged tanker to dock at Cuba's Matanzas Port for humanitarian reasons. (Reporting and editing by Dave Sherwood, Will Dunham and Ayose Naranjo)
Who is Trump's target?
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has continued to criticize and take action against corporate executives, institutions and corporations, even months after assuming office. His actions, from new export deals to freezing university grants, have changed the status quo in the United States between government, law and academia.
Trump has publicly criticised a number of influential individuals and entities.
NETFLIX
Netflix has acquired Warner Bros Discovery’s film studios, streaming service and Warner Bros Discovery’s streaming arm for $72 billion. This gives Netflix control over one of Hollywood’s most iconic assets.
After a lengthy bidding war, Netflix's offer of nearly $28 per share beat out Paramount Skydance, who had made several unsolicited offers to purchase Warner Bros Discovery and its cable television assets.
U.S. president
Donald Trump said
He would comment on the proposed merger, citing concern over the combined market share. It's up to some economists to decide .... It is still a large market share. "There's no doubt it could be a serious problem," he said.
The CEO of GUNVOR will step down
Gunvor, a global commodity trading company, announced that its CEO Torbjorn Tornqvist would step down and sell all of his shares in a management-led buyout. This comes after the U.S. labeled the company the "Kremlin’s puppet" because of its previous Russian connections.
The company announced earlier this month that Americas Head Gary Pedersen will take on the top position. Pedersen was hired just last year by the firm.
In November, the U.S. Treasury sank Gunvor's largest ever deal for the acquisition of international assets owned by Russian oil giant Lukoil sanctioned by the U.S.
Pedersen’s promotion coincides Gunvor’s efforts to improve its relations with the U.S. The firm has been in active discussions to invest in U.S. assets producing oil and gas in recent weeks.
GOLDMAN SACHS
Goldman's Economic Research arm published a report in August that stated U.S. Consumers had absorbed 22 percent of tariff costs up to June. Their share could increase to 67%, if recent levies continue the same pattern.
Trump stated shortly after that "David Solomon, and Goldman Sachs, refuse to give credit when credit is due." In a post made on Truth Social.
Trump claimed that "mostly, companies and governments, some of which are foreign, pick up the tab". Solomon's former hobby of DJing was also a target for Trump.
Trump asked Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tang to resign in early August because of China ties. In April, it was reported that Tan had invested $200 million into hundreds of Chinese chip and advanced manufacturing firms, including some linked to the Chinese military.
"The CEO at INTEL has a great deal of CONFLICT and must resign immediately." Trump stated in a Truth Social post that there is no solution to the problem.
Tan replied to Trump by saying that he shared his commitment to the advancement of U.S. economic and national security, and that the Intel Board was "fully supportive" of the transformation work our company is doing.
After a meeting with Tan, Trump praised him and the U.S. Government decided to buy a stake in this chipmaker.
MICROSOFT
Trump said in September that the tech company should fire Lisa Monaco, its global affairs director who has served in previous Democratic administrations.
Trump stated on Truth Social that "she is a threat to the National Security of the United States, especially in light of the large contracts Microsoft has with the United States Government." "I believe that Microsoft should terminate Lisa Monaco's employment immediately."
Trump stated that Monaco's position at Microsoft would give her access to sensitive information. "This kind of access cannot stand," said Trump.
Monaco, who joined Microsoft in July, worked as a security adviser in the administration of former President Barack Obama and was deputy attorney general under former President Joe Biden.
Elon Musk, the billionaire CEO of Tesla's electric car company, spent hundreds of million dollars to support Trump's reelection. Investors who bid up Tesla's stock anticipated that this move would benefit Musk's empire.
Musk and Trump, however, had a falling out in June, after Musk criticised Trump's tax-cutting and spending bill, claiming that it would increase the federal debt.
Musk responded to Trump's comments on Truth Social by threatening to cut off federal contracts and subsidies to Musk's businesses. Trump also said that the billionaire had "gone CRAZY", after the bill was amended to remove the mandate for electric vehicles.
JAGUAR LAND RIDER
Trump criticised Jaguar's rebranding campaign in August. He called the campaign "woke", "stupid" and linked it to the departure from the CEO of the company.
Trump's remarks came at the same time that Tata Motors announced the retirement from the British automaker of Adrian Mardell who had spent over three decades with the company.
Jaguar unveiled last year a new visual identity and logo as part of its brand refresh to reposition itself as an electrical automaker. This move sparked a backlash online and was criticized by brand loyalists.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on Apple and Tim Cook for selling iPhones in the United States outside of the country.
After a meeting with Cook in Doha, Qatar in May, Trump said that he confronted him about Apple's plans to manufacture the majority of iPhones sold in America in factories in India by 2026.
In a post on social media, Trump said he had told Cook "long time ago" "I expect that their iPhones will be sold in America, and not in India or anywhere else".
Early in August, Trump announced that Apple would invest another $100 billion dollars in the U.S. This will bring its total commitment domestically to $600 billion within the next four-year period. Cook gave Trump an American souvenir made with 24-karat-gold base.
AMAZON.COM
Trump complained to Jeff Bezos, former CEO of Amazon.com in April about a report that stated the company would display the prices to show the impact tariffs have on the ecommerce retailer Amazon.com.
Amazon, however, said that it only briefly considered charging import fees for certain goods following Trump's announcement of tariffs in April, but abandoned the plan after the White House accused Amazon of a hostile political act.
Trump told reporters later that Bezos "very quickly" solved the problem and was "very nice".
BANK OF AMERICA & JPMORGAN CHASE
In August, Trump claimed that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and BofA CEO Brian Moynihan discriminated against him. He had earlier said that they didn't provide banking services for conservatives.
In a video speech at the World Economic Forum, Trump stated, "What you are doing is wrong." In a question and answer session with CEOs and corporate leaders assembled on stage, Trump did not provide any evidence of wrongdoing.
Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase was also mentioned. "You, Jamie, and everyone else, I hope that you're going to open your bank up to conservatives." Both lenders have repeatedly denied allegations of "debanking."
WALMART
Trump stated in May that Walmart, China and other retailers should "eat tariffs" to avoid burdening American consumers. This was after Doug McMillon had said that the retailer couldn't absorb all tariff-related cost due to narrow retail margins.
Walmart should STOP blaming tariffs for the price increases across the chain. Walmart made BILLIONS of DOLLARS in the last year. This was far more than anticipated, Trump wrote on social media.
Trump didn't call McMillon out personally but he did publicly criticize Walmart for attributing the price increases in May to tariffs that his administration imposed.
CRACKER BAREL
A retail chain was blindsided by an unexpected reaction when it changed its logo to remove the image of a man in overalls known as "Uncle Herschel", leaning on a barrel.
Cracker Barrel announced in late August that it would stick with its decades old logo. Plans for a brand new one were scrapped after social media backlash from the U.S. president Donald Trump, among others.
"Congratulations Cracker Barrel on changing your original logo. "All of your fans really appreciate it," Trump told Truth Social following the company's change.
COMCAST
Trump criticised Comcast's cable news network MSNBC over its coverage of his government. Trump told reporters that MSNBC was changing its name to MS NOW because the network's owners were ashamed.
Trump called Comcast "weak, ineffective and headed by Brian Roberts" last week.
SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION
In anticipation of the U.S. 250th Anniversary, the White House announced that it would lead an internal review for some Smithsonian Museums and Exhibitions. Declaration of Independence.
In an executive directive issued in March, Trump stated that the institution was under the influence of "a divisive, race-centered ideologie" over the past few years.
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
Trump has targeted the oldest and wealthiest university in the United States, canceling federal grants worth $2.5 billion and mounting efforts to stop research funding for Harvard. This is part of an overall campaign to change U.S. Universities, which Trump claims are dominated by antisemitic, "radical-left" ideologies.
We are going to remove Harvard's tax exemption status. "It's what they deserved!" In May, Trump posted a message on his social media platform.
Trump announced on September 30, that his administration is close to reaching a deal with Harvard University, which would include a payment of $500 million by the Ivy League school. This comes after months spent negotiating over policies at schools.
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY
The Trump administration announced in March that it would cancel $400 million of federal funding for Columbia University because of how the university handled protests last year.
This is just the beginning of many arrests to come. "We know that there are many more students at Columbia University and other Universities in the Country who have engaged pro-terrorists, anti-Semitic and anti-American activities, and the Trump Administration won't tolerate it," Trump wrote in a post on social media.
These comments were made after the arrest Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian graduate who was a major participant in the protests.
In July, the University announced that it would pay more than $200 million in settlement to the U.S. Government as part of a deal with Trump's Administration.
LAW FIRMS
Trump issued an executive order in March that restricted access to federal facilities and suspended security clearances of its employees due to their ties with Hillary Clinton and DEI policy.
Trump said that it was an "absolute honor" to sign the order. Trump had also issued a similar order in March against the New York law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, which he subsequently retracted after reaching a settlement.
In February, the law firm Covington & Burling was confronted with Trump's Presidential Memorandum, which suspended all security clearances of Peter Koski, and Covington employees, who had assisted former Special Counsel Jack Smith in prosecuting Trump.
Covington has said that it will continue to represent Jack Smith in spite of these measures.
Trump said, "We will continue to hold those who are responsible for weaponizing government and who supported this accountable."
THE NEW YORK TIMES PENGUIN RANDOM HOUSE
Trump has filed a $15 Billion lawsuit
defamation lawsuit
In September, he filed a lawsuit against the New York Times as well as book publisher Penguin Random House. He accuses these major media companies of unfairly treating him.
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Trump sued
The Wall Street Journal, its owners and employees
Rupert Murdoch was sued in July by the New York Times for $10 billion over a report that revealed that his name appeared on a 2003 greeting to Jeffrey Epstein, which included a sexually explicit drawing and references to secrets that they shared. (Reporting by Deborah Sophia, Juveria Tabassum, Niket Nishant, Shivansh Tiwary, Savyata Mishra, Kritika Lamba, Arsheeya Bajwa, Zaheer Kachwala, Puyaan Singh, Pooja Menon and Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva, Sriraj Kalluvila and Arun Koyyur)
(source: Reuters)