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Goldman Sachs expects oil need to keep growing until 2034

Goldman Sachs raised its global oil demand projection for 2030 on Monday and anticipates consumption to peak by 2034 on a prospective slowdown in electrical lorry (EV) adoption, keeping refineries running at higherthanaverage rates till completion of this years.

The research division of the bank raised its 2030 crude oil demand forecast to 108.5 million barrels daily (bpd) from 106 million bpd, and expects demand to peak at 110 million bpd in 2034, followed by a long plateau till 2040, analysts led by Nikhil Bhandari said in a report.

WHY IT is very important

A longer period of oil demand growth might improve incomes of manufacturers like the members of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, and also increase climate-warming emissions from fossil fuels.

SECRET PRICES ESTIMATE

We expect peak oil demand to take place by 2034 at 110 million bpd; consequently, we forecast a moderate compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) demand decrease of 0.3% till 2040, Goldman said, as EV sales stagnated just recently.

Emerging markets in Asia will likely fuel the majority of global oil demand development up until 2040, with China and India being the key factors, it said.

Meanwhile, the period of the global refining upcycle might be longer than financiers currently expect, as worldwide refining usage could stay well above historical average levels over 2024-2027.

We are more positive on middle extracts (diesel/jet. fuel) over fuel, as the incremental supply development for middle. extracts lags behind demand development more considerably over. 2024-27, partly due to the later demand peak we expect for. middle extracts (mid-2030s) than gas (2028 ), it said.

CONTEXT

EV sales have actually cooled in recent months after rising. dramatically for several years, as consumers wait for more. economical models to hit the market.

Previously this month, the International Energy Agency, which. expects worldwide oil demand to peak before 2030, cut its. projection for this year by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.1. million bpd, broadening the space with producer group OPEC.

(source: Reuters)