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Overview of Iran's Energy Industry and Infrastructure
A U.S. official has said that U.S. president Donald Trump will again reimpose the "maximum" pressure on Iran, and reduce its oil exports to zero. Iran is the third-largest producer of oil in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. It extracts around 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day, or about 3% of the global output. Here are some interesting facts about the energy industry of the country, its exports, and the impact that previous Western sanctions had on it. OPEC AND SANCTIONS According to OPEC, Iran's oil output peaked in the 1970s. In 1974 it reached a record 6 million barrels per day. This was over 10% of the world's output. The United States first imposed sanctions against Tehran in 1979. Since then, several waves of U.S. sanctions and European Union sanctions have been aimed at the country. In 2018, the United States tightened its sanctions after Trump pulled out of a nuclear agreement during his first term as president. Iran's oil sales fell to near zero in some months. Analysts say sanctions were not enforced as strictly under the administration of Trump's successor, President Joe Biden. Iran was able to evade them. Iran is exempted from OPEC production restrictions. Who is the main buyer of Iranian oil? Iran's crude oil exports reached a record high of 1.7m bpd, the highest level since 2018. This was largely due to strong Chinese demand. China claims it does not recognize sanctions against its trading partners. China's private refiners are the main buyers of Iranian crude oil, and they have very little financial exposure to the United States. Iran has been evading sanctions for years by hiding satellite positions and transferring ships from one vessel to another. PRODUCTION and INFRASTRUCTURE FGE consultancy estimates that Iran refines around 2.6 millions bpd crude and condensate, and exports about 2.6million bpd crude oil, refined products and condensate. According to FGE the country produces 34 billion cubic foot of gas every day. This is 7% of world production. The gas is used exclusively in the domestic market. Iran's hydrocarbon facilities are concentrated primarily in the southwest. For oil, they are located in Khuzestan Province and for gas and condensate produced from South Pars Field in Bushehr Province. Kharg Island is the main port of export for 90% of its crude oil. Analysts believe Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC countries could compensate for a drop in Iranian production by pumping more. However, the normalisation of relations between Riyadh and Tehran suggests that the kingdom might be less willing to do this.
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Donald Trump Jr. accused illegal duck hunting in Venice
According to two Italian Green Party lawmakers, Donald Trump Jr. broke Italian and European Union laws on environmental protection when he hunted a duck near Venice in December. Andrea Zanoni is a member of Veneto's regional assembly. Luana Zanella is a national parlamentar. They have filed separate questions in the parliament urging the regional and national authorities take action. Zanoni, in a post on Facebook, said that he saw footage of Trump Jr. standing next to a dead ruddy shaddy, a protected animal, in an EU conservation zone "Natura 2000", in the lagoon at Venice. The video shows Trump Jr. holding a ruddy shaduck (Tadorna ferrruginea), a duck which is extremely rare in Europe and protected under the EU Birds Directive as well as the Italian law protecting wild fauna. Zanoni stated that the law punishes anyone who kills or holds this animal. Hunting is allowed in Italy, but it's strictly regulated. In the video Zanoni mentioned, Trump Jr. is seen on a duck-hunting trip in marshlands around Venice, promoted by Field Ethos. This outdoor activities brand that he founded. In the video, he describes his hunting bounty as "lots of teal, wigeon (ducks)." The video shows him catching "a duck that is not common in the area and I am not sure what its name is" before concluding "incredible shot". Andy Surabian is a spokesperson for Trump Jr. He said that the hunting party had all the proper permits and were hunting in an area where they were allowed to do so. It was not clear how the duck was killed. Surabian stated in a press release that "Don takes all rules, regulations, and conservation very seriously on his hunts and intends to fully cooperate with any investigation." The Field Ethos video has a voiceover that says that the expedition was on private land. Hunting is only done once a week, and precautions are being taken to protect the local environment. The video is not dated. However, a shorter version of the video was uploaded to YouTube on December 31, 2024 by Field Ethos. Italian media reported that Trump Jr. visited Venice with his girlfriend in December. ANSA reported that Environment Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin said he was awaiting a report on the alleged incident, after he learned about it through press reports. (Reporting and editing by Alison Williams, David Gregorio and Alison Williams; Additional reporting by Angelo Amante & Giulia Segrit.
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Trump to reimpose maximum pressure on Iran and drive oil exports down to zero
A U.S. official revealed that Donald Trump plans to resume his "maximum-pressure" campaign against Iran on Tuesday in order to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons and to drive its oil exports to zero. This move returns the U.S. to its tough policy towards Iran, which Trump, as a Republican Republican, had practiced during his first term. Trump accused his Democratic predecessor Joe Biden of reducing the U.S.'s resolve towards Iran. Trump said in his campaign that Biden’s policy of not strictly enforcing sanctions on oil exports had weakened Washington, and emboldened Tehran. This allowed Tehran to sell oil, collect cash, and expand its nuclear ambitions and influence via armed militias. In 2024, Iranian crude oil exports reached their highest level since the early 1990s as the country discovered ways to avoid punitive sanctions that targeted its revenue. Trump's return to a tougher approach coincided with his preparations to meet later Tuesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The official confirmed that Trump would sign a presidential memo ordering the U.S. Treasury Secretary to exert "maximum pressure" against Iran. This includes sanctions and enforcement mechanisms for those who violate existing sanctions. The official stated that as part of its maximum pressure campaign, the Trump administration would implement a "campaign aimed at driving Iran’s oil exports down to zero". According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Tehran's oil exported brought in $53 Billion in 2023, and $54 Billion a year before, and production in 2024 reached its highest level since 2018. The Iranian mission at the United Nations, New York, did not respond immediately to a comment request. On Tuesday, oil prices fluctuated on the news of Trump's plans. Officials said that the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations would work with key allies "to complete the snap-back" of international sanctions and other restrictions against Iran. Trump's maximum pressure campaign during his first term aimed to use harsh sanctions to choke Iran's economy, forcing the country to negotiate an agreement that would cripple its nuclear and missile weapons programs. Biden's administration did not loosen sanctions that Trump had put in place. However, there are disagreements about the degree to which the sanctions were enforced. In December, Britain, France and Germany informed the United Nations Security Council that they were prepared to snap back all international sanctions against Iran if needed to stop the country acquiring nuclear weapons. On Oct. 18, 2018, a U.N. Resolution from 2015 will expire. The resolution is a reaffirmation of the Iran deal that was reached with Britain, Germany France, United States, Russia, and China in which sanctions were lifted against Tehran in exchange for restrictions to its nuclear program. Amir Saeid Iravani has stated that reversing sanctions against Tehran by a "snap back" would be "illegal and counterproductive". In November and January, European and Iranian diplomats discussed whether they could defuse regional tensions and Tehran's nuclear programme before Trump returned to office. Rafael Grossi, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog chief, said that Iran was "pushing the gas pedal" in its enrichment to weapons-grade uranium at the World Economic Forum last month. Iran has denied that it wants to develop nuclear weapons.
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Africa Energy Bank to launch in mid-year with South Africa showing interest
An Afreximbank representative said that the proposed Africa Energy Bank will begin operations in mid-year of this year. South Africa has also expressed interest in joining. The bank is a partnership between Afreximbank (Afreximbank) and the African Petroleum Producers Organization(APPO). It was created to fill a funding hole in Africa, amid increasing pressure from environmental groups on major banks to divert investment dollars from climate-warming gas and oil projects. "We are currently in the capital raising stage. A number of nations have already invested the money. "We are talking to a variety of countries in order to bring the capital in so that we can begin trading," Afreximbank Executive Vice President Denys Denya stated. We will definitely start trading in this year. "We're hoping to start trading before half-year," he said on Monday at Africa's annual Mining Indaba, in Cape Town. Afreximbank has not disclosed the funding commitments of the new countries. The bank, with a capitalization up to $5 billion initially, will offer tailored financing solutions for Africa's energy requirements. Denya stated that South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and Angola were all countries that have expressed interest in joining the bank. Jacob Mbele, Director General of the Department of Mineral Resources confirmed that South Africa is interested. He had requested the bank's prospectus prior to committing a funding amount. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise; Nqobile Mbele)
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Sources say that a drone strike in Russia has halted the fuel production of Astrakhan's gas plant for several months.
Three industry sources told Reuters on Tuesday that the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant in Russia will likely suspend its motor fuel production for a few months following drone attacks earlier this week. The complex is one of the largest in the world. Ukraine launched drones on Monday to strike energy facilities in southern Russia. The drones caused fires at an oil refinery, and a gas processing plant. Sources said that a unit for processing condensate was set ablaze during the attack. The unit's annual capacity was 3 million metric tonnes of condensate. Gazprom, the energy giant that controls the plant, has not responded to requests for comments. The unit is in a bad state. "The shutdown is expected to last three months," a source said. A second source stated that the unit could resume operations as early as July based on a preliminary evaluation. Traders said that the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange had suspended sales of gasoline and diesel from this plant. In a video posted on Monday by the local governor Igor Babushkin, an employee told him that there was a problem with a unit of condensate treatment at the plant. According to industry sources, Astrakhan's plant produced 1.8 million tonnes of stable gas condensate and 800,000 tonnes of gasoline. It also produced 600,000 metric tons of diesel, as well as 300,000 metric tons of fuel oil. David Goodman is responsible for editing and reporting.
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After tariff storm, global stocks and currencies are able to find their footing.
The stock market and currency held steady Tuesday, as a calm uneasy settled over the markets. This was despite United States and China titt-for-tat tariffs. Mexico and Canada had won a last minute reprieve. The U.S. S&P opened flat while the Nasdaq, which is heavily tech-oriented, rose 0.2%. The S&P fell 1.9% on Monday morning as U.S. president Donald Trump appeared to be preparing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican goods and Canadian products. However, both countries were able to delay the move by promising to improve border security. The European stock market was flat on the last day after falling by 0.87% in the previous day. Ben Laidler is the head of equity strategy for Bradesco BBI. "I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. I believe the lack of a strong rebound is the reason." "We're putting 10% on China. I think that the European Union is clearly in the crosshairs." At 0501 GMT an additional 10% U.S. duty on Chinese exports went into effect. Minutes later, Beijing announced that it was investigating Google, and would be imposing tariffs from February 10 on the imports of U.S. cars, farm equipment, oil, coal and gas. The dollar index (which tracks the currency's performance against six major counterparts) was last 0.18% less at 108.38 after jumping as high 109.88 Monday. Investors were encouraged by the possibility of a possible negotiation with China as they saw a drop in the U.S. dollar against China's offshore currency yuan. Ben Bennett, Asia-Pacific Investment Strategist at Legal & General Investment Management Hong Kong said: "Investors are hopeful that both parties will come to an agreement soon and remove any barriers." Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.8% over night, reaching its highest level since last December. Investors are watching the Chinese currency band that China will fix on Wednesday to see if it is going to try to weaken its yuan in order to reduce the impact of the tariffs. Trump's Press Secretary said that the President plans to speak with Chinese president Xi Jinping within the next few weeks. Gold, a safe haven for investors, was trading at near-record highs of $2.838 per ounce. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased 3 basis points to 4.569%, after having ticked higher on Monday. The dollar increased 0.21%, to 155.08 Japanese yen. Google reported its earnings after the close of U.S. stock markets on Tuesday. Brent crude fell 2.4% to $74.16, its lowest level in the past year.
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Andy Home: Aluminium is the base metal analysts' bullish pick for 2025
Analysts predict that the London Metal Exchange's (LME) pack of base metals will be the most successful in 2025. They also forecast a shortage of light metals this year. Analysts who participated in the base metals survey of January also expect higher cash prices this year for zinc, copper, and tin compared to 2024. Nickel remains the commitment even though the average LME Cash price has fallen by nearly 22% in the last year. Nickel oversupply is expected to continue in both 2019 and 2020. Analysts are focusing on supply dynamics to determine the likely winners and losers for this year, but there is a gloomy macro-picture hanging over the industrial metals industry. Since the last quarterly survey in October, all median forecasts have been reduced for lead, copper, tin and nickel. This is due to concerns about the impact of a trade war on demand. ALUMINIUM BULLS According to a January survey, the average LME cash aluminum price is expected to rise by 4.9% in 2024, and then another 6.3% in 2025 to $2,573.50 a metric ton. The result was not much different from October's poll, indicating a growing conviction in the metal’s bullish prospects. The higher price forecast comes from a shift in the market dynamics towards a shortage of supply. Analysts have shifted their consensus from a surplus of 100,000 tons to a deficit of 8,000 tonnes in 2025. The average price per ton will increase to $2,626 in 2026. The recent tightness on the alumina markets has boosted the price of aluminium, but the greater structural constraint to supply is China's cap on smelter capacities. China's annualised production was close to 45.0 million tons by the end of 2024. It's not clear how the rest the world will fill in the gap if the largest producer of the world has reached the end of its expansion potential. ZINC PRICE Rally Sighted Fading Zinc, the second most valuable metal this year, is expected to see a 4.2% increase in the average cash price to $2.895 per ton. Analysts also raised their expectations for zinc prices from the poll conducted in October, compared to the general trend. You can see how the story of zinc has changed over the past three months. The market was expected to have a massive oversupply, but it has been surprisingly tight due to a shortage of mined concentrates that drags down the global metal production. Analysts expect that zinc prices will weaken in 2025 and 2026. Zinc is the only LME metal that analysts expect to see its price fall next year. Zinc's lead premium will also diminish, as lead prices are expected to remain steady at $2,050 this year and in the future. DIALING BACK COPPER Analysts have reduced their expectations of copper's potential growth. The median forecast for the cash price this year is lower by 4.8% than the poll from October. Copper is the LME Metal most sensitive to macro sentiment. The macro-economic outlook has become even more turbulent since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese imports. China's carefully calibrated response gives some hope for a successful trade negotiation. However, copper, which is the largest consumer of the metal in the world, is especially sensitive to any negative effects. This year will be no different. The market spent a lot of time last year searching for signs of resurgence in China's massive manufacturing sector. Tariffs, and the possibility of further ones in the future, have muddied the waters. THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER FOR NICKEL Since October, the median nickel forecast has been downgraded to $16,265 a ton. This is due to the increasing LME stock levels. Analysts don't expect much more downside after the market has already dropped so dramatically over the past year. According to the consensus, LME cash nickel will average $15.550 per ton during the current quarter. It is expected to rise steadily to $16,750 by the fourth quarter. Price recovery is forecast to continue through 2026, with a cash median price of $17.637 per tonne. Indonesia, which is the dominant producer in the world, may slow down its production to stabilize prices. UNPREDICTABLE Tin The tin market has been particularly volatile over the past couple of years, and it's hard to predict what the future holds for this soldering material. Median forecasts indicate a modest 2,6% increase in the average price for this year compared to 2024. This masks an extremely wide range of expectations ranging from $23,750 per ton to $33,000. In 2026, the range is even larger at $21,000 to $37,000. This is a good example of how hard it is to understand this small, but deeply opaque market. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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After tariff storm, global stocks and currencies are able to find their footing.
The stock market and currency held steady Tuesday, as a calm uneasy settled over the markets. This was despite United States and China titt-tat-ing on tariffs a day after Mexico won a last minute reprieve. The U.S. S&P opened flat while the Nasdaq, which is heavily tech-heavy, rose 0.2%. The S&P fell 1.9% on Monday morning as U.S. president Donald Trump appeared to be preparing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican goods and Canadian products. However, both countries were able to delay the move by promising to improve border security. The European stock market was flat on the last day after dropping by 0.87% in the previous day. Ben Laidler is the head of equity strategy for Bradesco BBI. "I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. I believe the lack of a strong rebound is the reason." "We've got 10% on China. I think that the European Union is clearly in the crosshairs." At 0501 GMT an additional 10% U.S. duty on Chinese exports went into effect. Minutes later, Beijing announced that it was investigating Google, and would be imposing tariffs from February 10 on the imports of U.S. cars, farm equipment, oil, coal and gas. The dollar index (which tracks the currency's performance against six major counterparts) was 0.18% lower last night at 108.38 after a Monday high of 109.88. Investors were encouraged by the possibility of a possible negotiation with China as they saw the U.S. dollar fall 0.17% in relation to China's offshore currency yuan. Ben Bennett, Asia-Pacific Investment Strategist at Legal & General Investment Management Hong Kong said: "Investors are hopeful that both parties will come to an agreement soon and remove any barriers." Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.8% over night, reaching its highest level since last December. Investors are watching the Chinese currency band that China will fix on Wednesday to see if it is going to try to weaken its yuan in order to reduce the impact of the tariffs. Trump's Press Secretary said that the President plans to speak with Chinese president Xi Jinping within the next few weeks. Gold, a safe haven for investors, was trading at near-record highs of $2.838 per ounce. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased 3 basis points to 4.569%, after having ticked higher on Monday. The dollar increased 0.21%, to 155.08 Japanese yen. Google reported its earnings after the close of U.S. stock markets on Tuesday. Brent crude fell 2.4% to $74.16, its lowest level in the past year.
The President of Lebanon says that he hopes TotalEnergies resumes oil and gas exploration as soon as possible
According to a press release from the president's offices, Lebanon President Joseph Aoun told Qatari Premier Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on Tuesday that he hoped TotalEnergies would soon resume oil exploration off the coasts of Lebanon.
In 2023, the state-owned QatarEnergy will join France's TotalEnergies (ENI.MI), and Italy's Eni in a consortium of three to search for oil and natural gas in two marine blocks off Lebanon's coast.
Two sources who were directly involved in the matter said that no hydrocarbons had been found after the exploratory drilling offshore in 2023.
TotalEnergies didn't respond to a comment request immediately.
The plans to drill in Lebanon were halted until the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah militant group was signed towards the end last year.
After the two-year presidential vacuum was ended by the January election of Western-backed President Aoun, reconstruction plans including oil and gas exploration await formation of a Lebanese new government. Reporting by Menna A. Alaa El Dn and Nayera Abdallah, Editing by David Goodman
(source: Reuters)