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Oil funds were bullish even before Iran introduced missiles: Kemp

Investors were ending up being gradually more bullish towards crude oil and improved petroleum products even before Iran launched an extraordinary wave of missiles and drones towards Israel.

Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 32 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and choices agreements over the seven days to April 9.

Positions were reported to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and ICE Futures Europe days before the Iranian attack on April 13-14.

Fund supervisors had actually been net buyers in 11 of the last 17 weeks, buying an overall of 478 million barrels considering that Dec. 12.

In effect, the combined position had increased to 685 million barrels (66th percentile for all weeks considering that 2013) up from 207 million (1st percentile).

The most current week saw buying throughout the board in NYMEX and ICE WTI (+11 million barrels), Brent (+4 million), U.S. gasoline (+1 million), U.S. diesel (+3 million) and European gas oil (+13 million).

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

Financiers stayed incredibly bullish towards U.S. gas with a net position of 85 million barrels (88th. percentile).

Bullish long positions outnumbered bearish brief ones by a. ratio of 4.90:1 (57th percentile) showing positioning had not. yet become stretched.

The risk of escalating dispute in the Middle East. interrupting crude and diesel products to Europe has led to a big. accumulation of positions in Brent and European gas oil.

Fund managers had actually collected a net position of 304 million. barrels (70th percentile) in Brent and 69 million barrels (75th. percentile) in gas oil.

Overall, fund positions had become reasonably bullish, but. not lopsided, restricting the risk of a sharp turnaround in prices. for the time being.

United States GAS

Portfolio investors made couple of modifications to their positions in. U.S. gas futures and alternatives for the 5th week in a. row; net purchases totaled up to simply 22 billion cubic feet (bcf).

The combined position in the 2 essential contracts. linked to rates at Henry Center in Louisiana was equivalent to a. net short of 310 bcf (24th percentile for all weeks because 2010).

The combined position had actually not changed significantly from a. net except 562 bcf (17th percentile) on March 12 regardless of the. announcement of drilling and production cuts by a number of. significant shale gas producers.

Production cuts will require time to erode inventories and in. the meantime temperatures have remained mild, keeping gas. intake low.

Working gas stocks were still in a massive surplus of. 634 bcf (+38% or +1.36 standard discrepancies) above the previous. 10-year seasonal average on April 5.

The surplus has swelled from 64 bcf (+2% or +0.24 standard. variances) on Oct. 1 after the warmest winter on record across. the northern hemisphere.

With so much gas still in storage and limited capacity for. filling up over the summer, rates stay near the most affordable. level in genuine terms since the early 1970s to encourage maximise. usage by power manufacturers and industrial users.

Related columns:

- Financiers bet on more rise in U.S. gas rates. ( April 10, 2024)

- Oil funds turn bullish as Mideast conflict heightens. ( April 8, 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)