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As investors expect Fed rate cuts, stocks rise and the dollar is set to lose 10 days in a row.
Global shares rose on Thursday as investors hoped that the U.S. would cut rates next week to support the world's biggest economy. Meanwhile, the dollar dropped for the tenth consecutive day against a basket currency, marking its longest losing streak since over 50 years. Japanese stocks rose sharply following a strong auction of government bond, which set the tone for broader equity markets. STOXX 600 in Europe was up by 0.1%, and is still on track for a modest gain each week. U.S. Stock Futures were slightly positive for the day and suggested a steady trading start later in the day. This follows Wednesday's rally, led by the Russell 2000 small-cap index which rose 1.9%. The S&P 500 also gained ground. Gains were made after the U.S. private employment data showed their largest drop in over two-and a half years and after a survey that revealed activity in the services sector remained steady while hiring slowed. FedWatch, a tool of the CME Group, shows that Fed funds futures have a near-90% probability that the central bank will cut interest rates by a quarter point at its next meeting scheduled for December 10. This is compared to an 83.4% possibility a week earlier. According to LSEG, the dollar index (which tracks the U.S.'s currency performance against six other currencies) was down 0.05% last day. This is the longest losing streak since at least 1971. The yield on a 10-year Treasury bond in the United States was last up by 2.7 basis points to 4.083%. This is after the Financial Times reported that bond investors expressed concern to the U.S. Treasury on Wednesday about Kevin Hassett's potential to aggressively reduce interest rates to match President Donald Trump’s preferences. Hassett would likely face the same problem as Governor Miran does today if he advocated for any ultra-dovish rate reductions on jumbo bonds. Michael Brown, senior strategist at Pepperstone said that without a convincing economic case for such a policy, Hassett will not be able garner enough votes to support such a move. In Japan, a government debt sale attracted the highest demand in over six years. This helped calm investor nerves regarding the country's finances on a long-term basis, which has caused similar concerns about other economies. Shoki Omori is the chief desk strategist at Mizuho, Tokyo. He said that "the 30-year JGB was unexpectedly strong." The extent of previous selling seems to have created a feeling of cheap valuation, which in turn encouraged demand. He added that the sentiment would need to be improved by multiple auctions. The 30-year Japanese government bonds yield was 3 basis points lower at 3.39%. Dollar was down last by 0.4% to 154.67 yen. This is the largest weekly gain for the U.S. dollar in more than two months. The yen was given a boost by a report stating that the Bank of Japan will likely raise interest rates next month, and the government is expected to tolerate this decision. Three government sources who are familiar with these deliberations were cited in the report. In Hong Kong, offshore trading, the yuan weakened a bit, resulting in a 0.1% increase in the dollar at 7,0664 yuan. On Wednesday, the Chinese currency reached its highest level in over a year against the US dollar. After a recent run of hot metals, precious metals have cooled. Silver fell 1.8%, to $57.41 per ounce after reaching a record of $58.98 an ounce on Wednesday. Gold dropped 0.3%, at $4,192. Brent crude rose 0.4% to $62.92 per barrel. Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter, Editing by Lincoln Feast; Sonali Paul, Andrew Heavens, and Chizu Nomiyama
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UN weather agency: Middle East and North Africa temperatures are rising twice as quickly as the global average.
In a recent report, the U.N. Weather Agency said that 2024 was the hottest year ever recorded in the Middle East and North Africa, with temperatures increasing at a rate twice as high as the global average in the last few decades. According to the first report by the World Meteorological Organization focused on this region, heatwaves are getting longer and stronger. WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said, "Temperatures have risen twice as fast as the global average with intense heatwaves pushing society to its limits." Reports found that the average temperature for 2024 is 1.08 C higher than the average from 1991-2020. The highest temperatures were recorded in Algeria, at 1.64 C over the average. Saulo warned extended periods above 50 C in several Arab countries are "too hot" to handle for the health of humans, ecosystems, and economies. The report stated that droughts have increased in frequency and severity in North Africa, which is home to 15 countries with the lowest water availability in the world. Heatwaves are also becoming longer and more intense, as the trend in North Africa has been since 1981. The report revealed that Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia were all affected by drought due to consecutive failed rainy seasons, while Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates experienced flash floods caused by heavy rainfall. WMO reported that more than 300 people died in the region last year due to extreme weather events. These included heatwaves, floods and droughts. Nearly 3.8 million people were affected by these events. According to the report, urgent investment is needed in water security. This includes desalination, reusing of wastewater and warning systems that reduce risk from extreme weather events. About 60% of the area has these systems. The report cited regional projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Indonesia names a Chinese metal company executive as a suspect in contaminated radioactive material case
Indonesian authorities named the director of a scrap-metal company on Thursday as a suspect. They accused the firm of breaking environmental laws regarding storage and disposal. A local company, also located in the Modern Cikande Industrial Estate in Jakarta, detected the caesium-137 contamination in shrimps shipped to the United States by a local firm in August. Indonesia then began conducting sweeping scans in that area. Indonesia's Government has said that PT Peter Metal Technology, a factory owned and operated by foreign investors which ceased operation in July was the epicenter of radioactive contamination. Police said that PT PMT director Lin Jingzhang is a Chinese citizen and a suspect of spreading contamination. Lin is not charged, and is helping with the investigation. However, he is prohibited from leaving Indonesia. Sardo Sbarani, an investigator with the Criminal Investigation Agency of the National Police, said: "He wasn't detained, because we saw that he was cooperative." Lin could not be reached for comment, and PT PMT didn't respond immediately to messages sent to a mobile number listed in Indonesia's company registry. Caesium 137 is released into the environment by past nuclear accidents or tests, such as Chernobyl. It's also used for industrial purposes like oil well logging. Indonesia does not have nuclear weapons or power plants. The task force that investigated the contamination stated that all scrap metal produced by PT PMT came from domestic sources, while stainless steel was exported by PT PMT to China. Investigators suspect that hazardous and toxic waste discovered at a scrapyard in the estate was produced by PT PMT. The company set up on the estate two year ago, and operated a facility to manufacture and grind non-ferrous metals. Bara Hasibuan said that the purchase of scrap material mixed with used industrial equipment contained Caesium-137. The materials were processed either legally or illegally, without proper storage, supervision, and disposal in accordance with applicable laws.
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Sources: MOL Hungary is interested in Lukoil assets
Three sources with knowledge of the matter have confirmed that MOL, a Hungarian oil company, has informed U.S. officials of its interest in purchasing international assets from sanctioned Russian oil giant Lukoil. This adds to a growing number of potential buyers. In October, the United States imposed sanctions against Russia's largest private oil producer as part of its efforts to press Moscow to end their war in Ukraine. This forced Lukoil into announcing the sale of foreign assets. Sources have confirmed that Lukoil has been in talks with oil majors Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Middle Eastern investors before the December 13 deadline set by the United States. Washington had rejected Gunvor, a Swiss commodity trader, as a potential buyer. Lukoil, based in Vienna, has an international division that owns refineries and oilfields throughout Europe, as well as shares in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan Iraq, Mexico, and hundreds of retail fuel station around the globe. One of three sources stated that MOL, the oil and gas company, would like to purchase Lukoil’s refineries and fuel station in Europe and its stakes in producing assets located in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Due to the sensitive nature of the issue, the sources refused to identify themselves by name. The U.S. Treasury Department refused to comment. MOL and White House didn't immediately respond to comments. One source said that Viktor Orban (the Hungarian prime minister) and Donald Trump (the U.S. president), who have been long-time allies, had discussed MOL plans when they met in November. Hungary was granted a waiver of U.S. sanctions for a year to allow it to continue using Russian gas and oil. Budapest is heavily dependent on Russian energy, and Orban has been in power for 15 years and has tried to maintain good relationships with Moscow and Washington. MOL is trying to purchase the Serbian refinery NIS owned by Russia, which has also been sanctioned by the United States. Dmitry Zhdannikov reported from London, Marek Stzelecki from Warsaw; Timothy Gardner, Krisztina than, and Kirstina Donovan contributed additional reporting. Alex Lawler edited the piece.
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Burberry and the UK's FTSE100 are rising as investors evaluate corporate updates
The UK's FTSE 100 rose on Thursday as investors assessed corporate updates and data that suggested potential weakness. Burberry also gained following an HSBC increase in price target on the luxury goods manufacturer. The blue-chip FTSE 100 rose 0.1% at 11:15 GMT Thursday, and the midcap FTSE 250 gained 0.3%. The S&P Global monthly purchasing managers' Index showed that British construction activity has contracted at the fastest rate since May 2020. The employment index fell to its lowest level since August 2020, as the pace of job losses accelerated. The survey's measure of optimism fell to a three-year low. Cost pressures also increased slightly. Personal goods stocks led the sectoral gains with an increase of 2.8%. Burberry rose 3.5%. Aerospace and defense shares are on track to rise for a third session in a row after the Russia-Ukraine talks broke down. Rolls-Royce, BAE Systems and other aerospace companies were all up over 1%. The precious metal mining sector fell 1.4% in line with the bullion price, with Fresnillo Mining and Endeavour Mining each falling more than 1.4%. Ofgem, the British energy regulator, announced on Thursday that it had approved an investment of 28 billion pounds to upgrade grid capacity in the country. Utilities fell led by SSE's 2.1% drop, but also United Utilities and National Grid, as well as Severn Trent. AJ Bell, a stock that is traded by individuals, fell 6.7% in value after the investment platform warned about increased costs and stated the budget will complicate the landscape of individual savings accounts. Diageo's share price fell by 0.8% after UBS reduced the company's price target from 2,250 to 1,850 pounds. AstraZeneca, the world's largest pharmaceutical company, fell by 0.7% while Barclays, a lender rose by 1.2%. Calastone data shows that British investors sold shares worth 3 billion pounds during November. This is the sixth month in a row where net sales have occurred. (Reporting by Utkarsh Tushar Hathi in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
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Energy Minister: Britain is looking for new locations to build large nuclear power plants
The energy minister announced on Thursday that Britain will identify sites suitable for a large-scale nuclear power plant across the country, including Scotland. The Labour Party in Britain has stated that nuclear plants are important to help the country achieve its climate goals, decarbonise their electricity sector and create new jobs. Ed Miliband, Energy Secretary at a Thursday industry event, said: "I have commissioned Great British Energy-Nuclear to identify suitable locations across the UK which could potentially host another nuclear large-scale project. This includes Scotland." The Scottish National Party is opposed to any new nuclear projects, and can block them using its devolved powers. "At the end of the day, this is going to be a decision for a Scottish government." Miliband stated that he wanted to maximize the opportunities available for the entire United Kingdom. Currently, eight sites have been approved in Britain for the development of nuclear power. The government chose the Wylfa nuclear site in North Wales last month as the first small power plant. The United States was angered by the decision. They wanted to build a large plant in the UK, led by the United States as part of their increased involvement in the UK energy sector. Miliband stated that any plans for large nuclear projects will be subject to the financial decisions made in future government expenditure reviews. The UK has committed almost 18 billion pound ($24.02billion) towards the construction of the massive Sizewell C nuclear power plant in eastern England. This project is estimated to cost 38 billion pound. Great British Energy-Nuclear, a UK-owned organization focused on coordination and advancement of the nuclear energy industry. Miliband stated that the organization would be reporting back on possible new sites in the autumn of next year.
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Copper's peak declines as the tightness panic fades
The price of copper fell slightly on Thursday, as traders reported that the panic caused by tight supplies this week has begun to subside. As of 1030 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange had fallen 0.7% to $11,402.50 a metric tonne. It reached $11,529 in the early part of the session. This was just a few cents away from the high of $11,540 that it achieved on Wednesday. LME data showed that on Thursday, 7,775 new warrants were cancelled in South Korea (0#MCUSTXLOC>), following a previous day's cancellation of more than 50 725 tons in Asia. The spread between the LME Cash Copper Contract and the Three-Month Forward contract was reduced due to the cancellations or orders to remove metal from the warehouses On Wednesday, metal prices blew out to around $88 a ton, the highest level since mid-October. This indicates a strong demand for metals. One trader said that the spread between March and now shouldn't be so tight, attributing Wednesdays rally to panic-buying. Sucden Financial stated that the copper market balance for 2025 was still in a small surplus. However, even minor disruptions can now turn this into a deficit. The brokerage believes that the $10,830 mark will be the important floor for copper prices through the end of this year. "Liquidity will continue to deteriorate into the holiday season." This, combined with increased speculative activity across the complex, increases the risk of large or disorderly movements, especially in thin markets, where spreads are tight, Sucden said. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast of the average LME copper prices for the first half 2026 from $10,415 to $10,710. Other metals include tin, which fell 1.5%, to $40,105 per ton after reaching its highest level since April 2022 in earlier sessions. Aluminium dropped 0.4%, to $2,884.50, and zinc lost 0.6%, to $3,047.50. Nickel increased by 0.3%, to $14,910. Lead rose 0.1%, to $2000.50. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Harikrin Nair and Harikrin Nair; Additional reporting by Dylan Duan; Lewis Jackson and additional reporting by Dylan Duan)
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Trump hosts Congo and Rwanda leaders in latest peace push
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, will meet with leaders of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda in Washington to sign new agreements aimed at stabilizing war-torn region and attracting Western investment. The Rwandan president Paul Kagame, and the Democratic Republic of Congo president Felix Tshisekedi will be expected to declare their commitment to a economic integration compact that has already been agreed. Last month, As well as an U.S.-brokered peace deal Reached in June, but not yet implemented Analysts claim that U.S. diplomatic efforts have halted the escalation in fighting in eastern Congo, but failed to resolve fundamental issues. M23 rebels, supported by Rwandan troops, took control of the two biggest cities in eastern Congo in an explosive advance earlier this year, raising fears of a wider conflict. Trump is eager to polish his diplomatic credentials. Since January 2017, his administration has intervened across conflicts, from the Middle East and Ukraine to beyond. These efforts have produced mixed results. They include a deal with Gaza, and criticisms that the president should concentrate on increasing discontent in the United States over his handling of cost of living issues. Before the meeting, the name of the president was added to an outside sign of the United States Institute of Peace. This is a nonprofit founded by the government that his administration attempted to take control of earlier in the year. The deal will be signed at the Institute. However, the agreement may not immediately resolve the humanitarian crisis. In dueling speeches on Tuesday, Congo’s army and the M23 rebels both accused each other in separate statements of violating ceasefire agreements which were renewed last week. Patrick Muyaya, a Congolese official who spoke at a Washington news conference on Wednesday, blamed M23's recent violence and said that it was "proof Rwanda doesn’t want peace." M23 will not be attending the Washington meeting. The M23 is not bound to any Congo-Rwanda agreements. Jason Stearns is a professor and regional expert at Canada's Simon Fraser University. He said that the U.S. has succeeded in putting a pin on the conflict, so that it does not escalate. "They've only done a little bit, which is to put a pin into it. The core issues are still not resolved." It doesn't seem like the issues are getting any closer to resolution. Rwanda denies backing M23. Kigali claims that its forces acted in defense of themselves against ethnic Hutu militiamen connected to the Rwandan genocide. In a report published in July, a group of United Nations specialists said that Rwanda exerts command and control over rebels. M23 claims it is fighting to protect the ethnic Tutsi in eastern Congo. The advances of the rebel group mark the latest episode of an ethnic rivalry that has been raging in the eastern borderlands between Congo and Rwanda for over 30 years. Between 1996 and 2003, two devastating wars in Africa's Great Lakes region cost millions of people their lives. The latest round of fighting has resulted in thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of displaced people. A MINERAL-RICH REGION The Trump administration discussed the possibility of facilitating Western investments worth billions of dollars in a region that is rich in minerals such as tantalum and tungsten. It also has copper, gold, cobalt and lithium. Washington is scrambling to gain access to vital minerals controlled by China, its main rival. According to the agreement backed by Trump, Congo would have to crackdown on an armed opposition group to M23 - the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda(FDLR). Rwanda would have to withdraw its troops from Congo. Since the signing of the agreement in June, there has been little progress made towards either commitment. In an interview on Wednesday, Rwandan Foreign Ministry Olivier Nduhungirehe said: "We hope to see improvements on the ground after the signing."
Investors look forward to the next Fed meeting as they lower gold on the back of stronger stocks
Gold prices fell on Thursday, as the gains made in Asian and European equities markets weighed down on demand for safe-haven assets. Investors turned their attention towards next week's U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting and to upcoming U.S. economic data that may influence interest rate outlooks.
As of 1141 GMT, spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,199.06 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery were down by 0.1% to $4,229 an ounce.
Gold bulls are on the sidelines awaiting tomorrow's PCE figures. "This, along with an increase in risk appetite on equity markets, limits the upside of gold prices," ActivTrades Analyst Ricardo Evangelista stated.
Global shares rose on Thursday as investors hoped that the U.S. will cut rates next week to support its largest economy, after a series of data revealed a slowdown in employment.
The ADP report on Wednesday showed that private payrolls in the U.S. fell by 32,000, the largest drop in over two and half years. However, the low number of layoffs may have led to an overestimation of the labor market's weakness.
Investors now focus on U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims due later today, and Friday's delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), the last important data points before FOMC's meeting next week.
According to CME's FedWatch, the markets expect an 89% probability of a rate reduction next week. Major brokerages are also expecting a rate cut at the December 9-10 gathering.
Gold is a non-yielding asset that tends to be favoured by lower interest rates.
Silver fell by 1.7%, to $57.5, after reaching a record-high of $58.98.
Silver prices have risen by 101% this year, mainly due to the concerns over market liquidity following outflows from U.S. stocks and its inclusion on the U.S. Critical Minerals list.
MarketPulse analyst Zain Vawda said, "Market participants are likely to be ahead of the game given the massive capex that is expected in regards to AI and Data Centers, which will both lead to an increase in demand for silver, and increase the supply/demand imbalance heading into 2026."
Palladium fell 1.8%, to $1,434, while platinum dropped 1.8%, to $1641.95. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Pablo Sinha. Jane Merriman, Louise Heavens and Jane Merriman edited the article.
(source: Reuters)