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India replaces closed factories in order to improve the accuracy of industrial output data

The Indian statistics ministry proposes to replace closed factories with active ones in its sample of the country's main industrial output index. This will improve data accuracy and bring it into line with global standards.

In 2017, the federal government adopted the Index of Industrial Production as a base year for compiling the Index of Industrial Production. This index reflects changes in industrial activity, and is aligned with the updated national accounts.

The base year will now be 2022-23, as part of an overall statistical overhaul that includes key datasets such as the Consumer Price Index and GDP. This is to better reflect newer industries and structural changes.

According to the proposed methodology factories that have reported zero output for three consecutive months or no data would be reviewed and, if they are found closed or producing a different product, would be replaced by a similar unit from the most recent annual industries survey.

In a press statement, the government stated that the replacement index would be adjusted based on a "substitution factor" of 12 months to maintain continuity.

The data must be overlapping for 12 months, and both factories should have produced the same product or item group.

According to the discussion paper of the government, 8.9% of IIP's sample of factories are units that were closed over time. This has led to distortions of the index.

The paper said that this change would help capture structural changes in the industry and prevent underreporting of data during periods of factory churn.

According to the government the proposed changes were recommended by a Technical Advisory Committee that also reflects suggestions made by the International Monetary Fund.

By November 25, the government is inviting comments and suggestions from stakeholders on this proposed rule.

In September, the industrial output grew more than expected at 4% on an annual basis. This was mainly due to growth in manufacturing.

(source: Reuters)