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After a record-breaking surge, the copper rally may cool down

Copper smashed its all-time record on Wednesday. This was fueled by concerns about mine supply, and the hope of a U.S. China trade agreement. However, analysts questioned whether this rally could continue without a sustained increase in demand.

Copper prices, which are considered to be a bellwether of the global economy have increased by more than 27% this year. This has been helped in part by a weaker dollar, making metals more accessible for holders of foreign currencies, and also falling interest rates.

The prospect of a U.S.-China trade deal has been a new catalyst for copper's rally, said ING analyst Ewa Mannthey. She added that the bank predicted a tighter balance on the copper market this year, and in 2026 when ING, like many other banks and brokers, anticipates a deficit.

Glencore, a commodity trader and miner, followed Anglo American on Wednesday in reporting lower production of copper in the first nine-months of 2025. It also cut its full year guidance. This is just another in a series of pressures on mine output.

The London Metal Exchange's benchmark copper price rose by 1.5%, to $11,200 a metric ton, after surpassing its previous record high, $11,104.50 per metric ton, which was set in May 2024. At 1645 GMT, it was trading at $10190.50.

This month, the International Copper Study Group stated that it expects a deficit in the refined market of 150,000 tonnes next year compared to a total consumption of 28,7 million tons.

Panmure Liberum's Tom Price, however, said that the two main factors he believes are behind copper’s recent rally -- easing trade tensions as well as an anticipated Federal Reserve rate reduction - would be priced in largely by Thursday.

Price stated, "I think that some (investors will leave) due to the lack of price drivers as well as the fact that copper demand hasn't changed much." Panmure Liberum expects a surplus of about 80,000 tonnes of copper in the coming year.

Nitesh Sha, WisdomTree's commodity strategist, said that speculative bets tend to fade after they become too prevalent. This could also be a factor. "We have seen this in the precious metal markets."

Gold prices, for instance, have gained 52% in the past year, but they've fallen around 8.5% since their record high on October 20, when they reached $4,381.21. Goldman Sachs stated earlier this month that copper prices will remain in the $10,000-$11,000 range in 2026/2027, due to a surplus in the market, but long-term prospects are still positive.

(source: Reuters)